City Survivability Rankings for American Restaurant

StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for American Restaurants across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for an American Restaurant to succeed.

•17 min read

Quick Summary

  • Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
  • The highest-survivability city for American Restaurant is Portland: 82.24% average survivability
  • 24 of 24 analyzed US metros score above 70% for American Restaurant survivability
  • The lowest-ranked city is New York City at 80.27%
  • National average chance of lasting two or more years for American Restaurant: 81.0%
  • Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 24 US metro areas · Full methodology →

Table of Contents

Summary

According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Portland ranks as the #1 city for opening an American Restaurant in the United States, with an average 82.24% chance of surviving more than 2 years. Following close behind are San Antonio with 82.14%, and St Louis with 82.06%. The national picture for American Restaurants shows 81.0% average survivability across 24 cities, with the gap between Portland and lower-ranked metros revealing significant geographic variation. However, the specific location is very important: there are excellent locations even in neighborhoods that might not appear to be a great fit at the city level. Market conditions shift frequently: use StreetSpring's live tool to confirm the current picture before committing to a location.

Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →

American Restaurants city survivability range chart: San Antonio vs Dallas (2026)

Best-to-worst American Restaurant survivability within individual metros: San Antonio, San Francisco, Phoenix, Baltimore and Dallas. Each box spans the middle of that metro's range; whiskers are its best and worst locations (2026).

All 24 Cities Ranked for American Restaurants

Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 24 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for American Restaurants:

#MetroMetro areaChance of lasting two or more years
1PortlandPortland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA82.24%
2San AntonioSan Antonio-New Braunfels, TX82.14%
3St Louis82.06%
4CharlotteCharlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC81.76%
5DetroitDetroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI81.74%
6OrlandoOrlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL81.69%
7PhoenixPhoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ81.65%
8Tampa BayTampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL81.62%
9BaltimoreBaltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD81.42%
10AtlantaAtlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA81.40%
11San DiegoSan Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA81.33%
12MinneapolisMinneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI81.23%
13San FranciscoSan Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA81.22%
14Los AngelesLos Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA81.18%
15HoustonHouston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX81.13%
16ChicagoChicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN81.12%
17SeattleSeattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA81.09%
18MiamiMiami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL81.06%
19DenverDenver-Aurora-Centennial, CO80.94%
20Washington DCWashington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV80.82%
21PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD80.76%
22BostonBoston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH80.70%
23DallasDallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX80.49%
24New York CityNew York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ80.27%

1. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

2. San Antonio Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX

3. St Louis

4. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

5. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

6. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

7. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

8. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

9. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

10. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

11. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA

12. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

13. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

14. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

15. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX

16. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN

17. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

18. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

19. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO

20. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

21. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

22. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

23. Dallas Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

24. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ

Key Insights

Cities cluster tightly: The difference between the #1 city (Portland at 82.24%) and the #24 city (New York City at 80.27%) is 1.97 percentage points. The top two metros for American Restaurants differ by 0.1 percentage points of 2-year survival. Differences between neighborhoods in one metro are consistently larger.

Strong performers: 24 cities show Survivability Scores above 80%, indicating highly favorable conditions for American Restaurants.

National average: Across all 24 analyzed cities, the average survivability for an American Restaurant is 81.0%.

What Makes These Cities Stand Out?

The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor American Restaurants:

  • Strong survivability signals: Portland leads with a 82% average chance of lasting two or more years for American Restaurants: significantly above the national average for this business category.
  • Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for American Restaurants, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
  • Economic conditions: All top-ranked cities show strong median household incomes and low vacancy rates in the neighborhoods where American Restaurants perform best.
  • Foot traffic infrastructure: High-scoring cities combine transit access, walkable commercial corridors, and anchor tenants that drive consistent daily traffic past storefronts.

Our survivability predictions are built on one of the largest commercial real estate datasets available, covering 24 major metros. StreetSpring measures competition through a 30-factor framework. These insights come from StreetSpring's exclusive, in-house forecasting models.

Best Neighborhoods Across the Spectrum

City-level averages mask significant within-city variation. Below are some of the strongest neighborhoods for American Restaurant at different points in the rankings:

Portland: ranked #1 nationally: the strongest market for American Restaurants

  • Kenton (89% survivability)
  • Fircrest (87% survivability)
  • Multnomah (87% survivability)
  • Markham (87% survivability)
  • Concordia (86% survivability)

See full neighborhood rankings for Portland →

City-level scores aggregate hundreds of neighborhoods. The right neighborhood matters more than the city's headline rank.

City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:

National guides:

How current is this ranking?

Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates: particularly for American Restaurants, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.

Can an American Restaurant succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?

Yes, our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open American Restaurants in cities that don't appear in our top 10. American Restaurants in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align, even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.

What tools can help me choose the right city for an American Restaurant?

StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for American Restaurants across all 24 metros we track. For this category specifically, the tool surfaces competition density, consumer spending index for American Restaurants, and commercial vacancy rates: the factors that most consistently predict whether an American Restaurant will still be operating after two years. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.

Try the Survivability Score tool →

Which US city has the best survivability for American Restaurants?

Portland ranks as the #1 city in the US for American Restaurants survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average 82% chance of lasting two or more years. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Portland, an American Restaurant has approximately a 82% chance of still operating after two years, above the national average for this category. San Antonio ranks second, followed by St Louis. The full ranking reflects data across 24 major US metro areas: see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.

Last reviewed: September 2026 by Robert Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring

Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.

View national technical data

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.

Methodology: City rankings aggregate neighborhood-level Survivability Scores (max, average, and min) across all analyzed neighborhoods in each metro area. Rankings reflect average conditions but do not account for variation within cities. Coverage includes 24 major US metropolitan areas: Portland, San Antonio, St Louis, Charlotte, Detroit, Orlando, Phoenix, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Atlanta, San Diego, Minneapolis, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Houston, Chicago, Seattle, Miami, Denver, Washington DC, Philadelphia, Boston, Dallas, New York City. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.