Across 24 metros, choosing the business type swings the projected chance of lasting two or more years by about 22 points inside a single neighborhood. Choosing the neighborhood swings it about 7. Choosing the metro swings it about 4.
| Metro | Best neighborhood | Toughest | Spread | Where the business type matters most | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle | Bryant 83.6% | Highland Park 73% | 10.6 | Dunlap: grocery store 80% vs shoe store 58% | 22 |
| San Diego | Alpine 83.6% | Jomacha-Lomita 73.2% | 10.4 | Jomacha-Lomita: deli 78% vs jewelry store 58% | 21 |
| Washington DC | Bull Run 84% | North Kensington 73.7% | 10.3 | North Kensington: auto repair 79% vs jewelry store 59% | 20 |
| Houston | Montgomery 84% | Cinco Ranch 75% | 9 | Northside Village: japanese / sushi restaurant 81% vs jewelry store 59% | 22 |
| St. Louis | Madison 84% | Jerseyville 75% | 9 | Rock Hill: pizza restaurant 80% vs women's clothing 56% | 24 |
| Boston | Dover 83.1% | Hopkinton 74.5% | 8.6 | Hudson: cafe 82% vs shoe store 60% | 22 |
| Philadelphia | Chestnut Hill 81.8% | Feasterville 73.2% | 8.6 | Academy Gardens: american restaurant 82% vs furniture store 58% | 24 |
| Denver | Elyria Swansea 80.4% | Heather Gardens 72.3% | 8.1 | Meadow Wood: american restaurant 80% vs furniture store 57% | 23 |
| Detroit | Romeo 81.8% | Northville 74.1% | 7.7 | Allen Park: fast food restaurant 81% vs shoe store 58% | 24 |
| Minneapolis | Buffalo 81.8% | Windom 74.5% | 7.3 | Excelsior: american restaurant 81% vs furniture store 58% | 23 |
| New York | East Jamaica Bay Islands 82.2% | Co-op City 75.1% | 7.1 | Dongan Hills: brunch restaurant 82% vs shoe store 61% | 21 |
| Baltimore | Taneytown 82.2% | Reisterstown 75.5% | 6.7 | Overlea: american restaurant 80% vs shoe store 57% | 23 |
| Charlotte | Henderson Circle 82.2% | Foxcroft 75.5% | 6.7 | Barclay Downs: vietnamese restaurant 82% vs jewelry store 59% | 22 |
| Portland | Kenton 80.8% | Highland 74.1% | 6.7 | Multnomah: lebanese restaurant 83% vs furniture store 61% | 22 |
| Atlanta | Jasper 82.7% | Roswell 76.3% | 6.4 | Chastain Park: soul food / southern restaurant 80% vs jewelry store 59% | 21 |
| Orlando | St. Cloud 81.8% | Doctor Phillips 75.9% | 5.9 | Longwood: korean restaurant 81% vs jewelry store 59% | 22 |
| Phoenix | Desert View 82.7% | Dobson Ranch 76.8% | 5.9 | Reed Park: discount store 82% vs women's clothing 61% | 21 |
| Los Angeles | Arlington Heights 81.3% | Citrus 75.5% | 5.8 | Crescenta Highlands: american restaurant 80% vs women's clothing 58% | 22 |
| San Antonio | Boerne 81.8% | Quintana Community 76.3% | 5.5 | Shearer Hills - Ridgeview: grocery store 81% vs jewelry store 60% | 21 |
| Miami | Miami 81.3% | Shenandoah 75.9% | 5.4 | Melrose Park: deli 81% vs jewelry store 58% | 23 |
| Tampa | Brooksville 80.8% | Zephyrhills 75.5% | 5.3 | Plaza Terrace: pizza restaurant 82% vs jewelry store 60% | 22 |
| San Francisco | Fremont 80.4% | Northgate 75.9% | 4.5 | Fairfax: vegan / vegetarian restaurant 80% vs furniture store 59% | 21 |
| Chicago | West Lawn 79% | Edison Park 75% | 4 | Garfield Ridge: deli 80% vs jewelry store 58% | 23 |
| Dallas | Cleburne 80.8% | DeSoto 77.2% | 3.6 | Lake Caroline: poke restaurant 82% vs home goods store 63% | 18 |
Rent is read as a proxy for quality of location. These are the pairs in each metro where it points the wrong way: the pricier neighborhood projects the lower chance of a new business lasting two or more years.
| Metro | Pricier neighborhood | Rent / sq ft | Odds | Cheaper, better odds | Rent / sq ft | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | Chastain Park | $30 | 76.3% | Jasper | $14.12 | 82.7% |
| Charlotte | Lancaster | $33.38 | 78.2% | Statesville | $16.67 | 81.8% |
| Boston | Downtown | $47.24 | 77.2% | Dover | $27 | 83.1% |
| Miami | Wynwood - Edgewater | $58.51 | 78.2% | Northwest Pompano | $35 | 80.8% |
| Baltimore | Annapolis | $32.84 | 76.8% | Taneytown | $20.16 | 82.2% |
How it is built. Every figure is read from the same model the metro pages publish. Neighborhood figures are the median across 130+ brick-and-mortar business types at a typical address. Rent is the median asking rent per square foot for the Census block groups a neighborhood covers, falling back to tract and county where a block group has none.
What it is not. Projections from location factors, not counts of closures. Rent is an asking rate, not a lease. A neighborhood median also hides the thing that decides a specific lease, which is the address. Each metro page carries its full ranking.
Reporters and researchers. Every figure here is the figure the linked metro page shows. If you need a cut that is not on the page, ask and it is usually same day. Version: 2026-09-09.