Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: Phoenix
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the best and worst neighborhoods in Phoenix for new businesses by survivability score. See which areas give you the best chance of lasting more than two years.
Reviewed and updated: May 8, 2026 — Bobby Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring
Quick Summary
- Top neighborhood: Ocotillo — ~91% best-case survivability, ~80% average across all business types
- Most challenging: Dana Ranch — ~73% average survivability
- 18 neighborhoods analyzed across the Phoenix metro
- Rankings based on average survivability across 130+ brick-and-mortar business types; your specific business type and address will differ
- See our full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- 10 Best Neighborhoods to Open a Business
- Hardest Places to Open a Business
- Where Would a Business Make the Most Money?
- What Should I Consider When Opening?
- Where to Start & How to Find Data
- Advice for Landlords
- Tools for Tenant-Rep Agents
- Why Do Survival Rates Vary?
- What Is a Survivability Score?
- How Does StreetSpring Compare?
- What Each Neighborhood Specializes In
- Related Resources
Summary
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis shows Ocotillo is the strongest neighborhood in Phoenix for new businesses, with the best locations offering a ~91% chance of lasting more than two years. Across all business types that could open in Ocotillo, the average location shows a ~80% chance of lasting more than two years. That said, neighborhood averages don't tell the whole story — there are standout locations even in areas that may appear less suitable.
Where Thrive in Phoenix
The top 10 neighborhoods in or around Phoenix to open a business are:
| # | Neighborhood | Avg Survival | Best Locations | Challenging Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ocotillo | ~80% | ~91% | ~63% |
| 2 | Pepperwood | ~79% | ~88% | ~71% |
| 3 | Daley Park | ~78% | ~81% | ~76% |
| 4 | Escalante | ~78% | ~86% | ~71% |
| 5 | Reed Park | ~78% | ~82% | ~71% |
| 6 | Castille | ~77% | ~85% | ~71% |
| 7 | Park Manor | ~77% | ~82% | ~72% |
| 8 | Gililland | ~76% | ~79% | ~73% |
| 9 | Arden Park | ~76% | ~82% | ~71% |
| 10 | Galveston | ~76% | ~79% | ~70% |
See the Survivability Score for your new business
What Are the Hardest Places in or Around Phoenix to Open a Business?
The hardest neighborhoods in or around Phoenix to open a business are:
| # | Neighborhood | Best Locations | Challenging Locations |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Dana Ranch | ~73% | ~62% |
| 17 | Lyn Rae | ~75% | ~67% |
| 16 | Maple-Ash | ~75% | ~72% |
| 15 | Sunnycrest | ~75% | ~68% |
| 14 | Homestead | ~75% | ~73% |
Still, specific site selection matters, since some of the best-performing blocks can be found in neighborhoods that might not look ideal at first glance. Market conditions shift, and the best way to verify current odds for a specific address is to run a live survivability check through StreetSpring.
Phoenix's Best-Earning Neighborhoods for
StreetSpring generates location-specific predictions tailored to your exact site. In Ocotillo, the best possible location offers ~20% better survival odds than the average location in or around Phoenix — meaning a meaningfully higher probability of still operating after two years. On the other hand, in Dana Ranch, the most challenging locations show survival odds that are roughly ~19% below the city average.
How revenue capture varies neighborhood by neighborhood
Location is the single strongest predictor of whether a business thrives or fails. Based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis for Phoenix, you can access the most up-to-date forecasts with StreetSpring for free to select the location that puts you in the best position to succeed.
See the Survivability Score for your new business
What Matters Most When Opening in Phoenix
Before signing a lease, the most important metric to evaluate is the Survivability Score of that specific address. Revenue Capture is where competition meets spending — and it's the number that matters most when choosing a location. Revenue Capture Score has two drivers:
| Area to check | What can go wrong | How to de-risk it |
|---|---|---|
| Build-out budget | Underestimating mechanical, electrical, and plumbing — the "hidden" 30-50% of build-out cost. | Get 3 quotes from licensed contractors and pad budget by +20% for surprises. Confirm landlord TI allowance in writing. |
| Foot traffic seasonality | Looking at a peak-summer Tuesday and assuming year-round volume. | Walk the block at 3 different times across 2 different weeks. Ask neighboring tenants for their slow-season % drop. |
| CAM + hidden costs | Stated rent looks great, then CAM fees, signage charges, and after-hours utilities add 15-30%. | Get the full operating expense breakdown for the past 2 years. Ask which costs are landlord-capped vs. uncapped. |
Build-out budget rules-of-thumb for this neighborhood
1. Projected Market Share: Market share is projected by analyzing the full competitive landscape — primary, secondary, and tertiary competitors at multiple distance bands — combined with foot traffic and mobility data for the specific address. We apply advanced machine learning to one of the largest commercial real estate outcome datasets in the country. The right amount of competition creates a destination effect, where multiple similar businesses collectively attract more foot traffic than any one would alone — this is why car dealerships often cluster together — however, past a certain threshold, additional competitors divide the available spending pool too thinly for new entrants to reach profitability.
2. Forecasted Consumer Spend: StreetSpring also calculates the forecasted spend on the specific business type based on proprietary consumer spending projections trained on hundreds of thousands of businesses across the United States; thus, a Diner will have a different forecasted spend than a Brunch Restaurant, a Kosher Restaurant, a Salad Shop, and others — and each of those businesses would receive a completely different survivability score at the same address. The underlying models are StreetSpring's own — built, trained, and maintained by our team using data that external platforms cannot access.
Together, these produce:
Revenue Capture Score = Projected Market Share × Forecasted Spend on Specific Business
Ranked by Revenue Capture Score across every brick-and-mortar business category, the top 3 neighborhoods in and around Phoenix are:
- Ocotillo
- Pepperwood
- Daley Park
Some other important factors to consider:
Ownership Rates: For businesses providing local services, Survivability Scores are boosted when nearby home ownership rates are high, providing a larger percentage of long-term repeat customers. The top 3 neighborhoods in and around Phoenix with the highest ownership rates are: Galveston, Ocotillo, and Lyn Rae.
How seasonality plays out here
Employment Rates: Employment rates shape disposable income — when a high share of nearby residents are employed, demand for discretionary spending businesses like restaurants and retail is meaningfully stronger. The top 3 neighborhoods in and around Phoenix with the highest employment rates are: Arden Park, Homestead, and Dana Ranch.
Occupancy Rates: Surrounding occupancy rates affect survivability for every business type: empty storefronts reduce pedestrian activity and signal weakening demand in the area. The top 3 neighborhoods in and around Phoenix with the highest occupancy rates are: Dana Ranch, Galveston, and Arden Park.
See the Survivability Score for your new business
Where to Launch in or Around Phoenix
According to StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, Ocotillo, Pepperwood, and Daley Park are the strongest starting points in or around Phoenix — but the best neighborhood for your specific business type may differ from these overall rankings.
- Best businesses by neighborhood: A full breakdown of the top business types to open in each Phoenix neighborhood — including survivability scores by type — is at Phoenix Business Survivability Rankings.
- Best neighborhoods for your business type: If you already know your category, that same guide lets you filter by business type to see which neighborhoods score highest for your specific concept.
- Address-level scores: StreetSpring's live tool shows a survivability score for any business type at any exact address in or around Phoenix — updated weekly.
Get your address-level survivability score →
Market conditions shift, and the best way to verify current odds for a specific address is to run a live survivability check through StreetSpring.
What Should Landlords in or Around Phoenix Know When Evaluating Tenant Success?
Broad trends don't capture the unique dynamics of each storefront. Proactively using survivability data to screen tenants and set rents reduces the costly cycle of turnover and vacancy that erodes NOI over time.
See how landlords can use these forecasts to improve occupancy and NOI: Landlord Representatives Guide
Try StreetSpring to see the Survivability Score for over 700 types of businesses at your storefront's address.
What Tools Can Tenant-Rep Agents Use to Find the Most Promising Locations in Phoenix?
The conventional approach to tenant representation leaves agents without the one number that matters most: the actual probability of the business surviving at that address, but StreetSpring highlights which addresses offer the best odds for long-term success across every business subtype in and around Phoenix. For a breakdown of the AI tools agents use to select the strongest sites, see: AI Tools for Tenant Reps
Why Do Business Survival Rates Vary So Much Between Neighborhoods in Phoenix?
Survival rate variation within a single neighborhood often exceeds variation between neighborhoods — the exact address is the critical variable. The factors that make one address stronger than another — visibility, accessibility, competitive distance, spending power — combine differently at every site. Our research explains why U.S. business survival rates haven't risen in decades — and how location drives outcomes more than concept: Why Survival Rates Aren't Increasing
What Is a Survivability Score and How Does StreetSpring Calculate It?
Survivability Scores translate location quality into a single probability — the chance a given business type lasts two or more years at that exact address, based on competition, spending potential, and foot traffic dynamics. Full methodology →
How Does StreetSpring Compare to Other Site-Selection Tools?
The key difference between StreetSpring and traditional site-selection tools is outcome focus: StreetSpring tells you if the business will survive, not just what the foot traffic looks like today. Full comparison →
What Each Neighborhood Specializes In
Don't write off lower-ranked Phoenix neighborhoods. Every neighborhood has business types it's good for. Here's what works in the top, middle, and bottom-ranked neighborhoods:
Sherwood — ranked #10 of 18 — a middle-of-the-pack Phoenix neighborhood
- Italian Restaurant (85% survivability)
- Kosher Restaurant (84% survivability)
- Sri Lankan Restaurant (84% survivability)
- American Restaurant (83% survivability)
- Japanese / Sushi Restaurant (82% survivability)
Full Sherwood business guide →
Dana-Ranch — ranked #18 of 18 — among Phoenix's lower-ranked neighborhoods
- Ukrainian Restaurant (83% survivability)
- Filipino Restaurant (82% survivability)
- Kosher Restaurant (81% survivability)
- American Restaurant (81% survivability)
- French Restaurant (80% survivability)
Full Dana-Ranch business guide →
Use citywide neighborhood ranks to find candidates, then drill into subtype-specific scores to confirm fit.
Visual Data
Related Resources
Static rankings can't capture every recent change in competition or foot traffic, which is why StreetSpring's real-time tool is the best place to check today's survivability score for a particular location. See the full rankings and get a live survivability score for any address in Phoenix.
- Phoenix Business Survivability Rankings — overall rankings by business type across all Phoenix neighborhoods
- Business Survivability in Ocotillo
- Business Survivability in Pepperwood
- Business Survivability in Daley Park
- StreetSpring Methodology
Technical note: Aggregated survivability rankings for Phoenix are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
View technical data for Phoenix
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and foot traffic data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.