A new business at a typical address in the Chicago area projects about 81% odds of lasting two or more years, the best of the 24 metros here. Denver is the toughest at about 77%. The gap between metros is small next to the gap inside them: in Washington DC the spread from Tysons to Skyland is 8 points.
| # | Metro | Typical address | Best neighborhood | Toughest neighborhood | Spread | Ranked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago | 81% | Main-Chicago (Evanston) 83% | Irving Woods 78% | 5 | 86 |
| 2 | Miami | 79% | Harbor Drive (Fort Lauderdale) 82% | Bay Colony (Fort Lauderdale) 76% | 6 | 85 |
| 3 | St. Louis | 79% | Union 82% | O'Fallon 76% | 6 | 33 |
| 4 | Dallas | 79% | Linwood (Fort Worth) 81% | Paschal (Fort Worth) 78% | 3 | 30 |
| 5 | Phoenix | 79% | Ocotillo (Chandler) 80% | Dana Ranch (Mesa) 77% | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Washington DC | 78% | Tysons 84% | Skyland 76% | 8 | 83 |
| 7 | Detroit | 78% | Rivertown 82% | Birmingham 75% | 7 | 41 |
| 8 | Portland | 78% | Kenton 81% | Highland 75% | 6 | 43 |
| 9 | Baltimore | 78% | Canton 80% | Overlea 75% | 5 | 23 |
| 10 | Boston | 78% | Boston 80% | Winchester 75% | 5 | 88 |
| 11 | Charlotte | 78% | Eastfield 80% | Double Oaks 75% | 5 | 35 |
| 12 | Los Angeles | 78% | Peninsula 82% | Imperial Estates 77% | 5 | 161 |
| 13 | New York | 78% | Rockaway Park 81% | Queens Village 76% | 5 | 169 |
| 14 | Orlando | 78% | Lake Holden 80% | Rose Isle 75% | 5 | 33 |
| 15 | San Diego | 78% | Barrio Logan 80% | Skyline 75% | 5 | 48 |
| 16 | Houston | 78% | South Main 80% | Alief 76% | 4 | 63 |
| 17 | San Antonio | 78% | New Braunfels 80% | Lavaca 76% | 4 | 12 |
| 18 | San Francisco | 78% | Marina 80% | Seminary (Oakland) 76% | 4 | 81 |
| 19 | Tampa | 78% | Downtown 80% | Palma Ceia 77% | 3 | 31 |
| 20 | Seattle | 77% | Seaview 81% | Highland Park 74% | 7 | 64 |
| 21 | Philadelphia | 77% | Chestnut Hill 81% | McGuire 75% | 6 | 116 |
| 22 | Minneapolis | 77% | Morris Park 80% | Keewaydin 75% | 5 | 50 |
| 23 | Atlanta | 77% | Blandtown 79% | Great Lakes (Decatur) 75% | 4 | 31 |
| 24 | Denver | 77% | Too few neighborhoods ranked here yet to name a best and a toughest. | 2 | ||
What the number is. For each metro, the projected chance a new business at a typical address lasts two or more years, averaged across 130+ brick-and-mortar business types, from a model trained on 570,000 real business outcomes and 100+ location factors.
What it is not. A projection from location factors, not a count of closures. A metro average also hides the thing that matters most to anyone actually signing a lease: the right business type on a tough block routinely beats the wrong one on the best block in the city.
Spread is the distance in points between the metro's best and toughest neighborhood. A wide spread means location choice carries more weight there than the city average suggests.
Source and refresh. the live metro hub pages, so this page and every hub agree to the digit Rebuilt when the metro pages refresh. This version: 2026-09-09.