City Survivability Rankings for Coffee Shop
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Coffee Shops across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Coffee Shop to succeed.
Quick Summary
- The highest-survivability city for Coffee Shop is Dallas — 75% average survivability
- 19 of 24 analyzed US metros score above 70% for Coffee Shop survivability
- The lowest-ranked city is Atlanta at 69%
- National average survivability score for Coffee Shop: 71.1%
- Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 24 US metro areas · Full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- Top Cities for Coffee Shops
- Key Insights
- What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
- Best Neighborhoods Across the Spectrum
- Related Resources
- How current is this ranking?
- Can a Coffee Shop succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?
- What tools can help me choose the right city for a Coffee Shop?
- Which US city has the best survivability for Coffee Shops?
Summary
According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Dallas ranks as the #1 city for opening a Coffee Shop in the United States, with an average 75% chance of surviving more than 2 years. Following close behind are Miami with 73%, and Orlando with 72%. The 24-city analysis shows Coffee Shops performing at a 71.1% national average, with strong geographic concentration of top scores in a handful of metros. That said, city averages don't tell the whole story — there are standout locations even in areas that appear less suitable at first glance. Survivability rankings evolve as neighborhoods change; always verify with the most recent StreetSpring dataset before signing a lease.
Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →
Coffee Shop city survivability rankings — Dallas leads among 24 US metros at 75% in 2026
The 24-City Survivability Index for Coffee Shops
Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 24 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Coffee Shops:
1. Dallas Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Best locations: 82.8% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 71.1% – 76.7%
- Challenging locations: 46.0% – 66.0%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Dallas →
Where the top 5 cluster, and the surprising outliers
2. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
- Best locations: 82.6% – 94.0%
- Average locations: 70.1% – 75.8%
- Challenging locations: 47.0% – 65.4%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Miami →
3. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
- Best locations: 82.2% – 94.0%
- Average locations: 69.2% – 75.1%
- Challenging locations: 45.0% – 64.2%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Orlando →
4. San Antonio Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
- Best locations: 81.0% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 69.2% – 74.4%
- Challenging locations: 49.0% – 65.1%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in San Antonio →
5. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
- Best locations: 80.5% – 91.0%
- Average locations: 69.0% – 74.3%
- Challenging locations: 47.0% – 64.5%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Portland →
6. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
- Best locations: 81.4% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 68.5% – 74.5%
- Challenging locations: 43.0% – 63.3%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Los Angeles →
7. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- Best locations: 80.9% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 68.4% – 74.2%
- Challenging locations: 44.0% – 63.4%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Tampa Bay →
8. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Best locations: 81.3% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 68.9% – 74.3%
- Challenging locations: 48.0% – 64.6%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Phoenix →
9. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
- Best locations: 80.8% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 68.2% – 74.1%
- Challenging locations: 43.0% – 63.1%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in San Francisco →
10. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO
- Best locations: 79.3% – 89.0%
- Average locations: 68.1% – 73.5%
- Challenging locations: 44.0% – 63.1%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Denver →
11. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
- Best locations: 80.5% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 67.5% – 73.6%
- Challenging locations: 41.0% – 62.1%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Washington DC →
12. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
- Best locations: 81.4% – 94.0%
- Average locations: 67.7% – 73.8%
- Challenging locations: 43.0% – 62.6%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Houston →
Why the same business does so differently city to city
13. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
- Best locations: 80.9% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 67.4% – 73.6%
- Challenging locations: 42.0% – 62.2%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in New York City →
14. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
- Best locations: 79.9% – 91.0%
- Average locations: 67.7% – 73.3%
- Challenging locations: 44.0% – 62.8%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in San Diego →
15. St Louis
- Best locations: 80.3% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 67.2% – 73.2%
- Challenging locations: 42.0% – 62.1%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in St Louis →
16. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
- Best locations: 79.3% – 90.0%
- Average locations: 67.5% – 72.9%
- Challenging locations: 45.0% – 62.9%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Charlotte →
17. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
- Best locations: 80.1% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 67.1% – 73.0%
- Challenging locations: 43.0% – 62.2%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Boston →
18. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
- Best locations: 79.5% – 91.0%
- Average locations: 67.1% – 72.6%
- Challenging locations: 45.0% – 62.6%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Seattle →
19. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN
- Best locations: 80.4% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 66.4% – 72.9%
- Challenging locations: 39.0% – 60.8%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Chicago →
20. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
- Best locations: 78.9% – 90.0%
- Average locations: 66.6% – 72.3%
- Challenging locations: 43.0% – 61.8%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Minneapolis →
21. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
- Best locations: 79.2% – 91.0%
- Average locations: 66.2% – 72.1%
- Challenging locations: 42.0% – 61.2%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Baltimore →
22. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
- Best locations: 80.5% – 94.0%
- Average locations: 66.1% – 72.4%
- Challenging locations: 41.0% – 61.0%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Philadelphia →
23. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
- Best locations: 79.6% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 66.1% – 72.2%
- Challenging locations: 41.0% – 60.9%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Detroit →
24. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
- Best locations: 79.0% – 91.0%
- Average locations: 66.1% – 71.8%
- Challenging locations: 43.0% – 61.3%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Atlanta →
Patterns Across the National Picture
| Signal | Where strong-survivability cities outperform | What drags weaker cities down |
|---|---|---|
| Climate-driven seasonality | Cities where the subtype's peak season aligns with the local climate calendar (e.g., year-round outdoor dining in mild markets). | Cities with extreme seasonality that compresses revenue into 4–6 month windows. |
| Anchor-tenant density | Cities with high concentration of universities, hospitals, transit hubs within a 1-mile radius of typical storefronts. | Cities where anchor institutions are isolated in suburbs or single-purpose campuses with no street-level spillover. |
| Average commercial rent per sqft | Cities where the median commercial rate fits the subtype's typical revenue-per-sqft envelope (rent < 10% of expected gross). | Cities where rents have outpaced revenue growth, pushing rent-burden ratios past 15%. |
Wide variation between cities: The difference between the #1 city (Dallas at 74.5%) and the #24 city (Atlanta at 69.2%) is 5.3 percentage points. For Coffee Shops, the 1.2-point difference between top and second-ranked cities is a strong signal that geographic market selection directly drives business outcomes.
National average: Across all 24 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Coffee Shop is 71.1%.
What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Coffee Shops:
- Strong survivability signals: Dallas leads with a 75% average survivability score for Coffee Shops — significantly above the national average for this business category.
- Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Coffee Shops, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
- Neighborhood diversity: Within each top city, high-survivability zones appear across multiple neighborhood types — from dense urban cores to established suburban strips.
- Economic conditions: All top-ranked cities show strong median household incomes and low vacancy rates in the neighborhoods where Coffee Shops perform best.
StreetSpring's AI models reveal the survivability of businesses in every major U.S. neighborhood, giving agents and entrepreneurs a trusted way to see their future success before opening day. Our models are trained on data from businesses reaching more than 180 million+ Americans. StreetSpring's predictions leverage proprietary datasets covering competition, spending, and mobility.
Where Coffee Shops Thrive Within Each City
Where you open matters more than which city ranks highest. The strongest neighborhoods for Coffee Shops can be found across the entire national distribution:
Dallas — ranked #1 nationally — the strongest market for Coffee Shops
- Ridglea (79% survivability)
- Oak-Lawn (78% survivability)
- Monticello (78% survivability)
- Linwood (76% survivability)
- Como (76% survivability)
See full neighborhood rankings for Dallas →
Atlanta — ranked #24 of 24 — among the lower-ranked national markets
- Springlake (78% survivability)
- Ardmore (78% survivability)
- Home-Park (77% survivability)
- Brookwood (76% survivability)
- Sandy-Springs (76% survivability)
See full neighborhood rankings for Atlanta →
A Coffee Shop can succeed in a city ranked #1 or #24 — what matters is finding the right neighborhood within that market.
Visual Data
Related Resources
City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:
- Survivability Rankings for Coffee Shop in Dallas
- Business Survivability Rankings: Dallas
- Survivability Rankings for Coffee Shop in Miami
- Business Survivability Rankings: Miami
- Survivability Rankings for Coffee Shop in Orlando
- Business Survivability Rankings: Orlando
- Survivability Rankings for Coffee Shop in San Antonio
- Business Survivability Rankings: San Antonio
- Survivability Rankings for Coffee Shop in Portland
- Business Survivability Rankings: Portland
National guides:
- National Neighborhood Survivability Rankings for Coffee Shops
- Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: Dallas
How current is this ranking?
Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates — particularly for Coffee Shops, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.
Do Coffee Shops only work in top-10 cities?
Yes — our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Coffee Shops in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Coffee Shops in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align — even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.
How can I narrow down cities for a Coffee Shop?
StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Coffee Shops across all 24 metros we track. For this category specifically, the tool surfaces competition density, consumer spending index for Coffee Shops, and commercial vacancy rates — the factors that most consistently predict whether a Coffee Shop will still be operating after two years. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.
Try the Survivability Score tool →
What is the #1 city for Coffee Shops?
Dallas ranks as the #1 city in the US for Coffee Shops survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average score of 75%. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Dallas, a Coffee Shop has approximately a 75% chance of still operating after two years — above the national average for this category. Miami ranks second, followed by Orlando. The full ranking reflects data across 24 major US metro areas — see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.
Reviewed and updated: May 2, 2026 — Bobby Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring
Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and foot traffic data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.
Methodology: City rankings aggregate neighborhood-level Survivability Scores (max, average, and min) across all analyzed neighborhoods in each metro area. Rankings reflect average conditions but do not account for variation within cities. Coverage includes 24 major US metropolitan areas: Dallas, Miami, Orlando, San Antonio, Portland, Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, Phoenix, San Francisco, Denver, Washington DC, Houston, New York City, San Diego, St Louis, Charlotte, Boston, Seattle, Chicago, Minneapolis, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Detroit, Atlanta.