City Survivability Rankings for Coffee Shop
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Coffee Shops across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Coffee Shop to succeed.
Quick Summary
- The highest-survivability city for Coffee Shop is Portland — 70% average survivability
- 1 of 11 analyzed US metros score above 70% for Coffee Shop survivability
- The lowest-ranked city is Atlanta at 65%
- National average survivability score for Coffee Shop: 67.6%
- Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 11 US metro areas · Full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- Top Cities for Coffee Shops
- Key Insights
- What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
- Related Resources
- How current is this ranking?
- Can a Coffee Shop succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?
- What tools can help me choose the right city for a Coffee Shop?
- Which US city has the best survivability for Coffee Shop?
Summary
According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Portland ranks as the #1 city for opening a Coffee Shop in the United States, with an average 70% chance of surviving more than 2 years. Following close behind are Denver with 70%, and Philadelphia with 69%. Our 11-city dataset shows Coffee Shops achieving 67.6% average survivability nationally — Portland pulling notably ahead of the pack. Our data shows that strong individual locations exist in every city we analyze, regardless of the city's overall ranking. Use this data to narrow your shortlist, then visit each top city in person to assess foot traffic and competitive density.
Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →
Coffee Shop city survivability rankings — Portland leads among 11 US metros at 70% in 2026
Top 10 Cities for Coffee Shops
Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 11 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Coffee Shops:
1. Portland
- Best locations: 77.9% – 87.0%
- Average locations: 68.2% – 72.4%
- Challenging locations: 52.0% – 64.9%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Portland →
2. Denver
- Best locations: 76.1% – 84.0%
- Average locations: 67.2% – 71.4%
- Challenging locations: 49.0% – 63.4%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Denver →
3. Philadelphia
- Best locations: 78.3% – 89.0%
- Average locations: 66.9% – 71.8%
- Challenging locations: 48.0% – 63.0%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Philadelphia →
4. St Louis
- Best locations: 76.6% – 87.0%
- Average locations: 65.3% – 70.4%
- Challenging locations: 44.0% – 60.9%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in St Louis →
5. Tampa Bay
- Best locations: 75.1% – 84.0%
- Average locations: 65.4% – 69.8%
- Challenging locations: 47.0% – 61.6%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Tampa Bay →
6. San Antonio
- Best locations: 73.7% – 82.0%
- Average locations: 64.8% – 68.8%
- Challenging locations: 49.0% – 61.6%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in San Antonio →
7. Charlotte
- Best locations: 74.4% – 84.0%
- Average locations: 64.4% – 68.7%
- Challenging locations: 48.0% – 61.0%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Charlotte →
8. Baltimore
- Best locations: 75.7% – 87.0%
- Average locations: 64.2% – 68.9%
- Challenging locations: 48.0% – 60.9%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Baltimore →
9. Chicago
- Best locations: 73.3% – 82.0%
- Average locations: 63.9% – 68.1%
- Challenging locations: 47.0% – 60.4%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in Chicago →
10. San Diego
- Best locations: 75.0% – 86.0%
- Average locations: 63.7% – 68.5%
- Challenging locations: 46.0% – 60.1%
- Explore Coffee Shop neighborhoods in San Diego →
Key Insights
Wide variation between cities: The difference between the #1 city (Portland at 70.4%) and the #10 city (San Diego at 66.1%) is 4.3 percentage points. The 0.7-point gap between top cities suggests that Coffee Shops viability varies meaningfully across major US metros, though neighborhood-level differences remain significant.
National average: Across all 11 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Coffee Shop is 67.6%.
What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Coffee Shops:
- Strong survivability signals: Portland leads with a 70% average survivability score for Coffee Shops — significantly above the national average for this business category.
- Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Coffee Shops, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
- Neighborhood diversity: Within each top city, high-survivability zones appear across multiple neighborhood types — from dense urban cores to established suburban strips.
- Economic conditions: All top-ranked cities show strong median household incomes and low vacancy rates in the neighborhoods where Coffee Shops perform best.
This analysis leverages machine learning trained on hundreds of thousands of business lifecycle events to produce reliable survivability forecasts. We incorporate data from thousands of neighborhoods and hundreds of thousands of individual businesses. StreetSpring's predictions leverage proprietary datasets covering competition, spending, and mobility.
Related Resources
City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:
- Survivability Rankings for Coffee Shop in Portland
- Business Survivability Rankings: Portland
- Survivability Rankings for Coffee Shop in Denver
- Business Survivability Rankings: Denver
- Survivability Rankings for Coffee Shop in Philadelphia
- Business Survivability Rankings: Philadelphia
- Survivability Rankings for Coffee Shop in St Louis
- Business Survivability Rankings: St Louis
- Survivability Rankings for Coffee Shop in Tampa Bay
- Business Survivability Rankings: Tampa Bay
National guides:
- National Neighborhood Survivability Rankings for Coffee Shops
- Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: Portland
How current is this ranking?
Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates — particularly for Coffee Shops, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.
Can a Coffee Shop succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?
Yes — our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Coffee Shops in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Coffee Shops in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align — even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.
What tools can help me choose the right city for a Coffee Shop?
StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Coffee Shops across all 11 metros we track. For this category specifically, the tool surfaces competition density, consumer spending index for Coffee Shops, and commercial vacancy rates — the factors that most consistently predict whether a Coffee Shop will still be operating after two years. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.
Try the Survivability Score tool →
Which US city has the best survivability for Coffee Shop?
Portland ranks as the #1 city in the US for Coffee Shop survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average score of 70%. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Portland, a Coffee Shop has approximately a 70% chance of still operating after two years — above the national average for this category. Denver ranks second, followed by Philadelphia. The full ranking reflects data across 11 major US metro areas — see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.
Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 25 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and foot traffic data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.
Methodology: City rankings aggregate neighborhood-level Survivability Scores (max, average, and min) across all analyzed neighborhoods in each metro area. Rankings reflect average conditions but do not account for variation within cities. Coverage includes 11 major US metropolitan areas: Portland, Denver, Philadelphia, St Louis, Tampa Bay, San Antonio, Charlotte, Baltimore, Chicago, San Diego, Atlanta.