City Survivability Rankings for Coffee Shop

StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Coffee Shops across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Coffee Shop to succeed.

•17 min read

Quick Summary

  • Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
  • The highest-survivability city for Coffee Shop is Dallas: 75.68% average survivability
  • 19 of 24 analyzed US metros score above 70% for Coffee Shop survivability
  • The lowest-ranked city is Atlanta at 73.29%
  • National average chance of lasting two or more years for Coffee Shop: 74.0%
  • Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 24 US metro areas · Full methodology →

Table of Contents

Summary

According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Dallas ranks as the #1 city for opening a Coffee Shop in the United States, with an average 75.68% chance of surviving more than 2 years. Following close behind are Miami with 75.12%, and Orlando with 74.77%. Our 24-city dataset shows Coffee Shops achieving 74.0% average survivability nationally: Dallas pulling notably ahead of the pack. Even cities with modest average scores can harbor exceptional individual locations: always check the address-level data. Pair these survivability scores with StreetSpring's live tool to get a real-time view before making a final decision.

Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →

Coffee Shops city survivability range chart: Miami vs Denver (2026)

Best-to-worst Coffee Shop survivability within individual metros: Miami, Orlando, Washington DC, Minneapolis and Denver. Each box spans the middle of that metro's range; whiskers are its best and worst locations (2026).

All 24 Cities Ranked for Coffee Shops

Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 24 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Coffee Shops:

#MetroMetro areaChance of lasting two or more years
1DallasDallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX75.68%
2MiamiMiami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL75.12%
3OrlandoOrlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL74.77%
4San AntonioSan Antonio-New Braunfels, TX74.55%
5PortlandPortland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA74.54%
6Los AngelesLos Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA74.53%
7Tampa BayTampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL74.44%
8PhoenixPhoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ74.41%
9San FranciscoSan Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA74.39%
10DenverDenver-Aurora-Centennial, CO74.25%
11Washington DCWashington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV74.15%
12HoustonHouston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX74.12%
13New York CityNew York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ74.06%
14San DiegoSan Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA74.05%
15St Louis73.95%
16CharlotteCharlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC73.90%
17BostonBoston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH73.82%
18SeattleSeattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA73.71%
19ChicagoChicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN73.70%
20MinneapolisMinneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI73.58%
21PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD73.42%
22BaltimoreBaltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD73.41%
23DetroitDetroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI73.40%
24AtlantaAtlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA73.29%

1. Dallas Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

2. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

3. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

4. San Antonio Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX

5. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

6. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

7. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

8. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

9. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

10. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO

11. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

12. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX

13. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ

14. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA

15. St Louis

16. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

17. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

18. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

19. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN

20. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

21. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

22. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

23. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

24. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

Key Insights

Cities cluster tightly: The difference between the #1 city (Dallas at 75.68%) and the #24 city (Atlanta at 73.29%) is 2.39 percentage points. Metro rankings for Coffee Shops are tightly packed, 0.6 points between first and second. Use them to shortlist, then compare addresses.

National average: Across all 24 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Coffee Shop is 74.0%.

What Makes These Cities Stand Out?

The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Coffee Shops:

  • Strong survivability signals: Dallas leads with a 76% average chance of lasting two or more years for Coffee Shops: significantly above the national average for this business category.
  • Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Coffee Shops, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
  • Neighborhood diversity: Within each top city, high-survivability zones appear across multiple neighborhood types, from dense urban cores to established suburban strips.
  • Economic conditions: All top-ranked cities show strong median household incomes and low vacancy rates in the neighborhoods where Coffee Shops perform best.

StreetSpring's AI models reveal the survivability of businesses in every major U.S. neighborhood, giving agents and entrepreneurs a trusted way to see their future success before opening day. We apply advanced machine learning to massive commercial real estate datasets to build accurate models. Our forecasting system combines proprietary data with machine learning models unavailable anywhere else.

Best Neighborhoods Across the Spectrum

Where you open matters more than which city ranks highest. The strongest neighborhoods for Coffee Shops can be found across the entire national distribution:

Dallas: ranked #1 nationally: the strongest market for Coffee Shops

  • Ridglea (79% survivability)
  • Oak-Lawn (78% survivability)
  • Monticello (78% survivability)
  • Linwood (76% survivability)
  • Como (76% survivability)

See full neighborhood rankings for Dallas →

Atlanta: ranked #24 of 24: among the lower-ranked national markets

  • Springlake (78% survivability)
  • Ardmore (78% survivability)
  • Home-Park (77% survivability)
  • Brookwood (76% survivability)
  • Sandy-Springs (76% survivability)

See full neighborhood rankings for Atlanta →

A Coffee Shop can succeed in a city ranked #1 or #24: what matters is finding the right neighborhood within that market.

City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:

National guides:

How current is this ranking?

Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates: particularly for Coffee Shops, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.

Can a Coffee Shop succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?

Yes, our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Coffee Shops in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Coffee Shops in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align, even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.

What tools can help me choose the right city for a Coffee Shop?

StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Coffee Shops across all 24 metros we track. For this category specifically, the tool surfaces competition density, consumer spending index for Coffee Shops, and commercial vacancy rates: the factors that most consistently predict whether a Coffee Shop will still be operating after two years. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.

Try the Survivability Score tool →

Which US city has the best survivability for Coffee Shops?

Dallas ranks as the #1 city in the US for Coffee Shops survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average 76% chance of lasting two or more years. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Dallas, a Coffee Shop has approximately a 76% chance of still operating after two years, above the national average for this category. Miami ranks second, followed by Orlando. The full ranking reflects data across 24 major US metro areas: see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.

Last reviewed: September 2026 by Robert Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring

Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.

View national technical data

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.

Methodology: City rankings aggregate neighborhood-level Survivability Scores (max, average, and min) across all analyzed neighborhoods in each metro area. Rankings reflect average conditions but do not account for variation within cities. Coverage includes 24 major US metropolitan areas: Dallas, Miami, Orlando, San Antonio, Portland, Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, Phoenix, San Francisco, Denver, Washington DC, Houston, New York City, San Diego, St Louis, Charlotte, Boston, Seattle, Chicago, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Detroit, Atlanta. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.