Survivability Rankings for Coffee Shop in Tampa Bay
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the best and worst neighborhoods in Tampa Bay to open a Coffee Shop, from Fair Oaks-Manhattan Manor (78% survival) to...
By Robert Koons | Last reviewed: September 2026 | Methodology
Quick Summary
- Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
- #1 Neighborhood: Fair Oaks-Manhattan Manor: 78% average survivability for Coffee Shop
- Neighborhoods at or above 70%: 13 of 13 analyzed
- City-wide average: 77% for Coffee Shops
- Most challenging area: North Tampa at 75%
- Revenue advantage (top vs. avg location): ~2.4% more expected revenue in Fair Oaks-Manhattan Manor
- Data freshness: 2026 data · Full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- 10 Best Neighborhoods
- Where Would a Coffee Shop Make the Most Money?
- What Should I Consider?
- Where Should I Start?
- FAQ: Best Neighborhoods
- FAQ: Can a Coffee Shop Succeed in Lower-Ranked Areas?
- FAQ: How Often Are Rankings Updated?
- FAQ: Is a Coffee Shop a Good Tenant?
- Landlord Survivability Data
- Best Neighborhoods for Any Business
Summary
Fair Oaks-Manhattan Manor leads Tampa Bay's 2026 survivability rankings for Coffee Shop operators with 78% average chance of surviving more than 2 years, with the best locations offering 82% and the most challenging locations in Fair Oaks-Manhattan Manor at 76%. The worst neighborhoods include North Tampa with 75% average chance. Our data shows that roughly 15% of top-performing locations sit in neighborhoods ranked below the city median.
What Are the 10 Best Neighborhoods in and Around Tampa Bay to Open a Coffee Shop?
Fair Oaks-Manhattan Manor ranks #1 of 13 neighborhoods analyzed in and around Tampa Bay for Coffee Shop survivability, with a 78% chance of lasting two or more years as of 2026. The top 10 neighborhoods are:
| Rank | Neighborhood | At a good address | Average Locations | Best Locations | Challenging Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fair Oaks-Manhattan Manor | 80.6% | 76.0% to 81.0% | 80.0% to 82.0% | 75.0% to 77.0% |
| 2 | South Seminole Heights | 80.5% | 77.0% to 82.0% | 80.0% to 82.0% | 76.0% to 78.0% |
| 3 | Seminole Heights | 80.5% | 77.0% to 81.0% | 80.0% to 82.0% | 75.0% to 77.0% |
| 4 | Bayshore Beautiful | 80.2% | 76.0% to 80.0% | 81.0% to 83.0% | 74.0% to 75.0% |
| 5 | Oakford Park | 79.9% | 76.0% to 80.0% | 80.0% to 82.0% | 74.0% to 75.0% |
| 6 | Terrace Park | 79.5% | 75.0% to 79.0% | 79.0% to 81.0% | 70.0% to 72.0% |
| 7 | Riverbend | 79.4% | 76.0% to 80.0% | 79.0% to 81.0% | 74.0% to 75.0% |
| 8 | North Hyde Park | 79.4% | 76.0% to 80.0% | 79.0% to 81.0% | 75.0% to 77.0% |
| 9 | Bayside West | 79.4% | 75.0% to 80.0% | 80.0% to 82.0% | 73.0% to 75.0% |
| 10 | Old Seminole Heights | 79.3% | 74.0% to 79.0% | 79.0% to 81.0% | 69.0% to 70.0% |
StreetSpring's Survivability Scores are updated regularly, so the most accurate prediction for your exact storefront is always available in the live tool. Static rankings provide a useful baseline, but the live tool captures changes that have occurred since publication.
Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each neighborhood. See our full methodology →
Try StreetSpring to see if this location is still the best and see if there are locations to rent in this area right now.
Where in or Around Tampa Bay Would a Coffee Shop Make the Most Money?
In Fair Oaks-Manhattan Manor, the best possible location offers the opportunity of making ~2.4% more than the average location in or around Tampa Bay.
On the other hand, in North Tampa, the worst possible location could result in making ~8.1% less than the average location in the city.
Where you open matters more than anything else. Opening a Coffee Shop in Tampa Bay requires careful location choice. Across 13 neighborhoods analyzed, the overall average survival chance for a new Coffee Shop is 77% for lasting more than 2 years, due to a combination of many factors across competition, consumer spending, and location dynamics. Survivability predictions are business-type-specific because consumer behavior differs fundamentally across categories.
What Should I Consider When Opening a Coffee Shop in or Around Tampa Bay?
When selecting a location for a Coffee Shop in or around Tampa Bay, it is crucial to select a location with a very high Survivability Score. Among all factors in our model, Revenue Capture Score carries the most weight in determining long-term survivability. StreetSpring computes this by projecting the business's market share, which is based on the quality and quantity of primary, secondary, and tertiary competitors. Our analysis covers businesses serving the 24 largest metros in America. Neighborhoods with a mix of similar businesses frequently outperform isolated locations. StreetSpring's proprietary algorithms power these predictions. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.
This can be summarized as:
Revenue Capture Score = Projected Market Share × Forecasted Spend on Specific Business
Related: Survivability Score: How We Calculate It & Why It Matters
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. StreetSpring's Survivability Scores are updated regularly, so the most accurate prediction for your exact storefront is always available in the live tool.
Where in or Around Tampa Bay Should I Start a Coffee Shop?
StreetSpring identifies the strongest markets as Fair Oaks-Manhattan Manor, South Seminole Heights, and Seminole Heights, while the most challenging neighborhoods would be North Tampa, Plaza Terrace, and Tampa Heights. Even neighborhoods with modest average scores can harbor exceptional individual locations. Real-time data from StreetSpring accounts for recent openings, closures, and seasonal shifts that static rankings cannot.
Related Articles:
- Business Survivability Rankings: Tampa Bay
- Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: Tampa Bay
- National City Survivability: Coffee Shop
- National Neighborhood Survivability: Coffee Shop
What Are the Best Neighborhoods in Tampa Bay to Open a Coffee Shop?
Based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, the top neighborhood for a Coffee Shop in Tampa Bay is Fair Oaks-Manhattan Manor with 78% average survivability, followed by South Seminole Heights and Seminole Heights. 13 of 13 neighborhoods analyzed exceed 70% two-year survival.
Static rankings provide a useful baseline, but the live tool captures changes that have occurred since publication.
Can a Coffee Shop Succeed in Lower-Ranked Neighborhoods in Tampa Bay?
Yes, neighborhood averages mask significant block-by-block variation. Even in neighborhoods ranked outside the top 10, individual storefronts with strong foot traffic, low direct competition, and favorable lease terms can outperform the area average. A low-ranking neighborhood can still contain high-potential storefronts: the address matters most. Always check your specific address in StreetSpring's live platform for the most accurate prediction.
How Often Are Coffee Shop Rankings in Tampa Bay Updated?
StreetSpring recalculates survivability scores regularly using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. Rankings are updated quarterly; the live tool always reflects the most current predictions for any address in Tampa Bay.
Is a Coffee Shop a Good Tenant for Tampa Bay Landlords?
In Fair Oaks-Manhattan Manor, StreetSpring forecasts a 76.0% to 81.0% average chance for a new Coffee Shop to survive more than 2 years, depending on the exact storefront. Check the current Survivability Score for any address instantly.
Landlord Survivability Data for Coffee Shop in Tampa Bay
If you own commercial property in Tampa Bay and are considering a Coffee Shop tenant, here is what the data shows: Fair Oaks-Manhattan Manor properties offer the best survivability outlook (76.0% to 81.0%), South Seminole Heights is strong but slightly lower (77.0% to 82.0%), and Seminole Heights rounds out the top 3 (77.0% to 81.0%). You can see the Survivability Score for your location for any business right now.
Our models produce survivability scores at the individual address level, not just neighborhood averages.
Related: How Landlord Representatives Can Reduce Vacancy & Increase Tenant Longevity
What Are the Best Neighborhoods in or Around Tampa Bay for My Business Overall?
You can see the best neighborhoods in or around Tampa Bay to open any type of business in our article Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: Tampa Bay.
Related Resources
- Business Survivability Rankings: Tampa Bay: See how Coffee Shop compares to all other business types in Tampa Bay
- Best Cities to Open a Coffee Shop in the US: National city-level survivability rankings for Coffee Shop
- Business Survivability in Fair Oaks-Manhattan Manor, Tampa Bay: All business types ranked in the #1 neighborhood
- Business Survivability in South Seminole Heights, Tampa Bay: All business types ranked in the #2 neighborhood
- Business Survivability in Seminole Heights, Tampa Bay: All business types ranked in the #3 neighborhood
Technical note: Aggregated survivability rankings for Tampa Bay are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
View technical data for Tampa Bay
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.