City Survivability Rankings for Bagel Shop
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Bagel Shops across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Bagel Shop to succeed.
Quick Summary
- Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
- The highest-ranked city for Bagel Shop is Charlotte: 83.1% at a good address, 73.5% at a typical address
- Dallas is left out of this ranking while a gap in its input data is repaired, and San Antonio is left out because it has too few scored locations to rank fairly
- 6 of 22 analyzed US metros average above 70% for Bagel Shop survivability at a typical address
- The lowest-ranked city is New York City at 75.0%
- National average chance of lasting two or more years for Bagel Shop: 67.1%
- Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 22 US metro areas · Full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- Top Cities for Bagel Shops
- Key Insights
- What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
- Related Resources
- How current is this ranking?
- Can a Bagel Shop succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?
- What tools can help me choose the right city for a Bagel Shop?
- Which US city has the best survivability for Bagel Shops?
Summary
According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Charlotte ranks as the #1 city for opening a Bagel Shop in the United States, with an 83.1% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address. Following close behind are Atlanta with 83.1%, and Orlando with 82.7%. StreetSpring's 22-city analysis places the national average for Bagel Shops at 67.1%, a baseline that Charlotte comfortably exceeds. Location-level factors like visibility, foot traffic, and adjacent tenants can override city-level trends in either direction. These rankings reflect data through early 2026: check StreetSpring for the latest figures before any location decision.
Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →
Best-to-worst Bagel Shop survivability within individual metros: Charlotte, Atlanta, San Diego, Boston and New York City. Each box spans the middle of that metro's range; whiskers are its best and worst locations (2026).
All 22 Cities Ranked for Bagel Shops
Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 22 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Bagel Shops:
| # | Metro | Metro area | Chance of lasting two or more years at a good address |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte | Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | 83.1% |
| 2 | Atlanta | Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA | 83.1% |
| 3 | Orlando | Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 82.7% |
| 4 | Denver | Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO | 82.7% |
| 5 | Houston | Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX | 82.7% |
| 6 | Minneapolis | Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | 81.8% |
| 7 | Seattle | Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | 81.8% |
| 8 | St. Louis | St. Louis, MO-IL | 81.8% |
| 9 | Washington DC | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | 81.3% |
| 10 | Detroit | Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI | 80.8% |
| 11 | Baltimore | Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD | 80.8% |
| 12 | San Diego | San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA | 80.4% |
| 13 | Chicago | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN | 80.4% |
| 14 | Philadelphia | Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD | 80.0% |
| 15 | Phoenix | Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ | 80.0% |
| 16 | Los Angeles | Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA | 80.0% |
| 17 | Miami | Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL | 80.0% |
| 18 | Portland | Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA | 79.5% |
| 19 | Tampa Bay | Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | 79.0% |
| 20 | San Francisco | San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA | 78.6% |
| 21 | Boston | Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH | 76.8% |
| 22 | New York City | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ | 75.0% |
1. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
- At a good address: 83.1%
- At a typical address: 73.5%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
2. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
- At a good address: 83.1%
- At a typical address: 72.8%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
3. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
- At a good address: 82.7%
- At a typical address: 72.0%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
4. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO
- At a good address: 82.7%
- At a typical address: 71.4%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
5. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
- At a good address: 82.7%
- At a typical address: 71.1%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
6. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
- At a good address: 81.8%
- At a typical address: 70.2%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
7. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
- At a good address: 81.8%
- At a typical address: 69.5%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
8. St. Louis Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
- At a good address: 81.8%
- At a typical address: 69.5%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
9. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
- At a good address: 81.3%
- At a typical address: 65.6%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
10. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
- At a good address: 80.8%
- At a typical address: 68.7%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
11. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
- At a good address: 80.8%
- At a typical address: 67.3%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
12. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
- At a good address: 80.4%
- At a typical address: 66.8%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
13. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN
- At a good address: 80.4%
- At a typical address: 64.9%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
14. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
- At a good address: 80.0%
- At a typical address: 66.3%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
15. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- At a good address: 80.0%
- At a typical address: 65.5%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
16. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
- At a good address: 80.0%
- At a typical address: 64.1%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
17. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
- At a good address: 80.0%
- At a typical address: 63.8%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
18. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
- At a good address: 79.5%
- At a typical address: 64.2%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
19. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- At a good address: 79.0%
- At a typical address: 65.2%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
20. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
- At a good address: 78.6%
- At a typical address: 62.8%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
21. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
- At a good address: 76.8%
- At a typical address: 61.4%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
22. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
- At a good address: 75.0%
- At a typical address: 59.6%
- Best scored location: 84.0%
- Weakest scored location: 48.0%
Key Insights
Moderate variation between cities: The difference between the #1 city (Charlotte at 83.1%) and the #22 city (New York City at 75.0%) is 8.10 percentage points. Bagel Shops show a difference of under a point between the top two metros. Treat this ranking as a starting filter, not a decision.
Challenging markets: 1 city falls below 60% survivability, suggesting more difficult market conditions.
National average: Across all 22 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Bagel Shop is 67.1%.
What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Bagel Shops:
- Strong survivability signals: Charlotte leads with a 74% average chance of lasting two or more years for Bagel Shops: significantly above the national average for this business category.
- Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Bagel Shops, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
- Regulatory environment: Top-ranked cities tend to have streamlined commercial permitting and lower business tax burdens relative to their metro size, reducing friction for new operators.
- Foot traffic infrastructure: High-scoring cities combine transit access, walkable commercial corridors, and anchor tenants that drive consistent daily traffic past storefronts.
StreetSpring analyzes millions of data points with AI to forecast business survivability across U.S. neighborhoods. The training dataset includes millions of transactions and business lifecycle events. These insights come from StreetSpring's exclusive, in-house forecasting models.
Related Resources
City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:
- Business Survivability Rankings: Charlotte
- Business Survivability Rankings: Atlanta
- Business Survivability Rankings: Orlando
- Business Survivability Rankings: Houston
National guides:
How current is this ranking?
Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates: particularly for Bagel Shops, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.
Can a Bagel Shop succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?
Yes, our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Bagel Shops in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Bagel Shops in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align, even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.
What tools can help me choose the right city for a Bagel Shop?
StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Bagel Shops across all 22 metros we track. For this category specifically, the model reads competition density, the consumer spending index for Bagel Shops, and Census neighborhood characteristics such as the housing vacancy rate, and turns them into the projected chance that a Bagel Shop lasts two or more years at a given address. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.
Try the Survivability Score tool →
Which US city has the best survivability for Bagel Shops?
Charlotte ranks as the #1 city in the US for Bagel Shops survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average 74% chance of lasting two or more years. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Charlotte, a Bagel Shop has approximately a 74% chance of still operating after two years, above the national average for this category. Atlanta ranks second, followed by Orlando. The full ranking reflects data across 22 major US metro areas: see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.
Last reviewed: October 2026 by Robert Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring
Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.
Methodology: Each metro's figures pool the scored locations in its published neighborhoods. Metros are ranked the way the national data file ranks them, on the chance of lasting two or more years at a good address; the typical-address figure is shown alongside. Coverage includes 22 major US metropolitan areas: Charlotte, Atlanta, Orlando, Denver, Houston, Minneapolis, Seattle, St. Louis, Washington DC, Detroit, Baltimore, San Diego, Chicago, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Los Angeles, Miami, Portland, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Boston, New York City. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.