City Survivability Rankings for Mexican Restaurant

StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Mexican Restaurants across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Mexican Restaurant to succeed.

•16 min read

Quick Summary

  • Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
  • The highest-ranked city for Mexican Restaurant is Charlotte: 83.1% at a good address, 73.2% at a typical address
  • Dallas is left out of this ranking while a gap in its input data is repaired, and San Antonio is left out because it has too few scored locations to rank fairly
  • 5 of 22 analyzed US metros average above 70% for Mexican Restaurant survivability at a typical address
  • The lowest-ranked city is New York City at 76.8%
  • National average chance of lasting two or more years for Mexican Restaurant: 67.4%
  • Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 22 US metro areas · Full methodology →

Table of Contents

Summary

According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Charlotte ranks as the #1 city for opening a Mexican Restaurant in the United States, with an 83.1% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address. Following close behind are Atlanta with 83.1%, and Houston with 83.1%. Mexican Restaurants sit at a national average of 67.4% survivability across our 22-city analysis, with Charlotte leading the field by a meaningful margin. These averages mask significant neighborhood-by-neighborhood variation; a lower-ranked city can still contain high-potential storefronts. Pair these survivability scores with StreetSpring's live tool to get a real-time view before making a final decision.

Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →

Mexican Restaurants city survivability range chart: Charlotte vs New York City (2026)

Best-to-worst Mexican Restaurant survivability within individual metros: Charlotte, Atlanta, Detroit, Portland and New York City. Each box spans the middle of that metro's range; whiskers are its best and worst locations (2026).

All 22 Cities Ranked for Mexican Restaurants

Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 22 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Mexican Restaurants:

#MetroMetro areaChance of lasting two or more years at a good address
1CharlotteCharlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC83.1%
2AtlantaAtlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA83.1%
3HoustonHouston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX83.1%
4OrlandoOrlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL83.1%
5DenverDenver-Aurora-Centennial, CO82.7%
6St. LouisSt. Louis, MO-IL81.8%
7SeattleSeattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA81.8%
8MinneapolisMinneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI81.3%
9San DiegoSan Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA81.3%
10Washington DCWashington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV81.3%
11Los AngelesLos Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA81.3%
12DetroitDetroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI80.4%
13BaltimoreBaltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD80.4%
14MiamiMiami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL80.4%
15San FranciscoSan Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA80.4%
16PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD80.0%
17PhoenixPhoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ80.0%
18ChicagoChicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN80.0%
19Tampa BayTampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL79.5%
20BostonBoston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH79.0%
21PortlandPortland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA79.0%
22New York CityNew York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ76.8%

1. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

  • At a good address: 83.1%
  • At a typical address: 73.2%
  • Best scored location: 84.0%
  • Weakest scored location: 48.0%

2. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

3. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX

4. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

5. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO

6. St. Louis Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL

7. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

8. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

9. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA

10. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

11. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

12. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

13. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

  • At a good address: 80.4%
  • At a typical address: 66.8%
  • Best scored location: 84.0%
  • Weakest scored location: 48.0%

14. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

15. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

16. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

17. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

18. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN

  • At a good address: 80.0%
  • At a typical address: 63.9%
  • Best scored location: 84.0%
  • Weakest scored location: 48.0%

19. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

20. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

  • At a good address: 79.0%
  • At a typical address: 64.3%
  • Best scored location: 84.0%
  • Weakest scored location: 48.0%

21. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

22. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ

Key Insights

Moderate variation between cities: The difference between the #1 city (Charlotte at 83.1%) and the #22 city (New York City at 76.8%) is 6.30 percentage points. For Mexican Restaurants, Charlotte leads Atlanta by less than a point. Either metro works. The specific site decides the outcome.

National average: Across all 22 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Mexican Restaurant is 67.4%.

What Makes These Cities Stand Out?

The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Mexican Restaurants:

  • Strong survivability signals: Charlotte leads with a 73% average chance of lasting two or more years for Mexican Restaurants: significantly above the national average for this business category.
  • Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Mexican Restaurants, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
  • Supply chain access: Cities at the top of this ranking benefit from mature supplier networks for this category, reducing operating costs and inventory lead times.
  • Low market saturation: Top cities for Mexican Restaurants have fewer direct competitors per square mile than lower-ranked metros, leaving meaningful whitespace for well-positioned new entrants.

StreetSpring uses AI to predict business survivability across U.S. neighborhoods, for real estate professionals and entrepreneurs nationwide. Our platform has analyzed hundreds of thousands of business outcomes across major U.S. metros. These insights come from StreetSpring's exclusive, in-house forecasting models.

City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:

National guides:

How current is this ranking?

Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates: particularly for Mexican Restaurants, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.

Can a Mexican Restaurant succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?

Yes, our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Mexican Restaurants in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Mexican Restaurants in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align, even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.

What tools can help me choose the right city for a Mexican Restaurant?

StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Mexican Restaurants across all 22 metros we track. For this category specifically, the model reads competition density, the consumer spending index for Mexican Restaurants, and Census neighborhood characteristics such as the housing vacancy rate, and turns them into the projected chance that a Mexican Restaurant lasts two or more years at a given address. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.

Try the Survivability Score tool →

Which US city has the best survivability for Mexican Restaurants?

Charlotte ranks as the #1 city in the US for Mexican Restaurants survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average 73% chance of lasting two or more years. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Charlotte, a Mexican Restaurant has approximately a 73% chance of still operating after two years, above the national average for this category. Atlanta ranks second, followed by Houston. The full ranking reflects data across 22 major US metro areas: see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.

Last reviewed: October 2026 by Robert Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring

Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.

View national technical data

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.

Methodology: Each metro's figures pool the scored locations in its published neighborhoods. Metros are ranked the way the national data file ranks them, on the chance of lasting two or more years at a good address; the typical-address figure is shown alongside. Coverage includes 22 major US metropolitan areas: Charlotte, Atlanta, Houston, Orlando, Denver, St. Louis, Seattle, Minneapolis, San Diego, Washington DC, Los Angeles, Detroit, Baltimore, Miami, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Boston, Portland, New York City. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.