Survivability Rankings for Mexican Restaurant in San Francisco
2026 ranking of San Francisco neighborhoods to open a Mexican Restaurant, at a good address, from Mission Bay (84.0% survival) to Thousand Oaks.
By Robert Koons | Last reviewed: October 2026 | Methodology
Quick Summary
- Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
- #1 Neighborhood: Mission Bay: 84.0% at a good address, 80.2% at a typical address for Mexican Restaurant (2 ranked neighborhoods share the 84.0% good-address figure)
- Neighborhoods at or above 70% at a typical address: 45 of 107 ranked
- Average across the 107 ranked neighborhoods (typical address): 67.9% for Mexican Restaurants
- Most challenging area: Thousand Oaks: 51.8% at a good address, 50.8% at a typical address
- Revenue Capture Score: the most important factor in choosing a location, StreetSpring's proprietary estimate of the revenue a business can capture at a specific address
- Data freshness: 2026 data · Full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- 10 Best Neighborhoods
- Where Would a Mexican Restaurant Make the Most Money?
- What Should I Consider?
- Where Should I Start?
- FAQ: Best Neighborhoods
- FAQ: Can a Mexican Restaurant Succeed in Lower-Ranked Areas?
- FAQ: How Often Are Rankings Updated?
- FAQ: Is a Mexican Restaurant a Good Tenant?
- Landlord Survivability Data
- Best Neighborhoods for Any Business
Summary
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis shows the best neighborhood in and around San Francisco to open a Mexican Restaurant is Mission Bay, with a projected chance of lasting two or more years of 84.0% at a good address and 80.2% at a typical address (2 ranked neighborhoods share the 84.0% good-address figure). Its highest scored address is at 84.0% and its lowest at 61.5%. The last-ranked neighborhood is Thousand Oaks, at 51.8% at a good address and 50.8% at a typical address. Market conditions are changing daily and it is best to use StreetSpring's most up-to-date data.
What Are the 10 Best Neighborhoods in and Around San Francisco to Open a Mexican Restaurant?
Mission Bay ranks #1 of the 107 ranked neighborhoods in and around San Francisco for Mexican Restaurant survivability, with a projected chance of lasting two or more years of 84.0% at a good address as of 2026. The top 10 neighborhoods are:
| Rank | Neighborhood | Metro | At a good address | Average (typical address) | Best Locations | Challenging Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mission Bay | San Francisco | 84.0% | 80.2% | 84.0% | 61.5% |
| 2 | Castro/Upper Market | San Francisco | 84.0% | 76.6% | 84.0% | 51.6% |
| 3 | Mission | San Francisco | 83.6% | 78.8% | 84.0% | 57.4% |
| 4 | Twin Peaks | San Francisco | 83.6% | 76.2% | 84.0% | 63.3% |
| 5 | Haight Ashbury | San Francisco | 83.6% | 74.8% | 83.6% | 55.6% |
| 6 | Bayview | San Francisco | 83.6% | 72.1% | 84.0% | 48.4% |
| 7 | Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside | San Francisco | 83.6% | 70.5% | 83.6% | 48.4% |
| 8 | Inner Richmond | San Francisco | 83.5% | 78.1% | 83.6% | 60.2% |
| 9 | Bushrod | San Francisco | 83.5% | 77.7% | 83.6% | 66.0% |
| 10 | West Berkeley | San Francisco | 83.5% | 77.6% | 84.0% | 62.8% |
StreetSpring's Survivability Scores are updated regularly, so the most accurate prediction for your exact storefront is always available in the live tool. StreetSpring's Survivability Scores are updated regularly, so the most accurate prediction for your exact storefront is always available in the live tool.
The ranking runs on the good-address figure (the 90th percentile of the scored addresses in each neighborhood). Average is the typical address; Best and Challenging Locations are the highest and lowest scored address in the neighborhood. Every figure is the projected chance of lasting two or more years, as printed in the linked file. See our full methodology →
Try StreetSpring to see if this location is still the best and see if there are locations to rent in this area right now.
Where in or Around San Francisco Would a Mexican Restaurant Make the Most Money?
Where a Mexican Restaurant would make the most money in or around San Francisco comes down to the exact address. The Revenue Capture Score is the most important factor in choosing a location: StreetSpring's proprietary estimate of the revenue a business can capture at a specific address.
Mission Bay is ranked #1 for Mexican Restaurant survivability, at 84.0% at a good address and 80.2% at a typical address; Thousand Oaks is ranked last of the 107, at 51.8% at a good address and 50.8% at a typical address. Revenue at a specific storefront is what the Revenue Capture Score estimates, so check it for each address you are weighing.
The rankings below show how far apart the neighborhoods of one city sit for the same business type. Opening a Mexican Restaurant in San Francisco requires careful location choice. Across the 107 ranked neighborhoods, the average projected chance that a new Mexican Restaurant lasts two or more years is 67.9% at a typical address. Consumer spending patterns differ dramatically across business types and micro-locations.
What Should I Consider When Opening a Mexican Restaurant in or Around San Francisco?
When selecting a location for a Mexican Restaurant in or around San Francisco, it is crucial to select a location with a very high Survivability Score. The single most important number in a location decision is the Revenue Capture Score, StreetSpring's proprietary estimate of the revenue a business can capture at a specific address. StreetSpring computes this by projecting the business's market share, which is based on the quality and quantity of primary, secondary, and tertiary competitors. We apply advanced machine learning to massive commercial real estate datasets to build accurate models. Some of the best-performing locations are surrounded by complementary competitors that drive foot traffic. Our forecasting system combines proprietary data with machine learning models unavailable anywhere else. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.
This can be summarized as:
Revenue Capture Score = Projected Market Share × Forecasted Spend on Specific Business
Related: Survivability Score: How We Calculate It & Why It Matters
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. Real-time data from StreetSpring accounts for recent openings, closures, and seasonal shifts that static rankings cannot.
Where in or Around San Francisco Should I Start a Mexican Restaurant?
The highest-performing areas for this business type are Mission Bay, Castro/Upper Market, and Mission, while the most challenging neighborhoods would be Thousand Oaks, Colony Park, and Woodside (Concord). These rankings are based on the latest available data; check StreetSpring for real-time updates. New competitor openings and closures happen weekly: the live tool ensures you see the latest picture.
Related Articles:
- Business Survivability Rankings: San Francisco
- Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: San Francisco
- National City Survivability: Mexican Restaurant
- National Neighborhood Survivability: Mexican Restaurant
What Are the Best Neighborhoods in San Francisco to Open a Mexican Restaurant?
Based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, the top neighborhood for a Mexican Restaurant in San Francisco is Mission Bay, at 84.0% at a good address and 80.2% at a typical address (2 ranked neighborhoods share the 84.0% good-address figure), followed by Castro/Upper Market and Mission. 45 of the 107 ranked neighborhoods are at or above 70% at a typical address.
The live platform incorporates the most recent competitor, housing vacancy, and spending data for your exact address.
Can a Mexican Restaurant Succeed in Lower-Ranked Neighborhoods in San Francisco?
Yes, neighborhood averages mask significant block-by-block variation. Even in neighborhoods ranked outside the top 10, individual storefronts with strong foot traffic, low direct competition, and favorable lease terms can outperform the area average. The highest and lowest scored addresses inside one neighborhood can sit far apart, so the neighborhood figure is a starting point. Always check your specific address in StreetSpring's live platform for the most accurate prediction.
How Often Are Mexican Restaurant Rankings in San Francisco Updated?
StreetSpring recalculates survivability scores regularly using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. Rankings are updated quarterly; the live tool always reflects the most current predictions for any address in San Francisco.
Is a Mexican Restaurant a Good Tenant for San Francisco Landlords?
In Mission Bay, the projected chance that a new Mexican Restaurant lasts two or more years is 80.2% at a typical address and 84.0% at a good address, depending on the exact storefront. Check the current Survivability Score for any address instantly.
Landlord Survivability Data for Mexican Restaurant in San Francisco
The data tells a clear story for Mexican Restaurant tenants across San Francisco's top neighborhoods. Mission Bay leads at 80.2% at a typical address, with its best scored address at 84.0%. Castro/Upper Market is at 76.6% at a typical address, and Mission at 78.8% at a typical address. Get a live Survivability Score for your specific storefront in the live tool.
Each prediction is calibrated to the specific address, factoring in competition, housing vacancy, and consumer spending at that exact location.
Related: How Landlord Representatives Can Reduce Vacancy & Increase Tenant Longevity
What Are the Best Neighborhoods in or Around San Francisco for My Business Overall?
You can see the best neighborhoods in or around San Francisco to open any type of business in our article Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: San Francisco.
Related Resources
- Business Survivability Rankings: San Francisco: See how Mexican Restaurant compares to all other business types in San Francisco
- Best Cities to Open a Mexican Restaurant in the US: National city-level survivability rankings for Mexican Restaurant
- Business Survivability in Mission Bay, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #1 neighborhood
- Business Survivability in Castro/Upper Market, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #2 neighborhood
- Business Survivability in Mission, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #3 neighborhood
Technical note: Aggregated survivability rankings for San Francisco are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
View technical data for San Francisco
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the figures shown here.