City Survivability Rankings for Dessert Shop

StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Dessert Shops across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Dessert Shop to succeed.

•17 min read

Quick Summary

  • Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
  • The highest-ranked city for Dessert Shop is Charlotte: 83.1% at a good address, 75.3% at a typical address
  • Dallas and San Antonio are left out of this ranking while a gap in their input data is repaired
  • 5 of 22 analyzed US metros average above 70% for Dessert Shop survivability at a typical address
  • The lowest-ranked city is New York City at 74.5%
  • National average chance of lasting two or more years for Dessert Shop: 67.1%
  • Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 22 US metro areas · Full methodology →

Table of Contents

Summary

According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Charlotte ranks as the #1 city for opening a Dessert Shop in the United States, with an 83.1% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address. Following close behind are Atlanta with 83.1%, and Houston with 83.1%. The national picture for Dessert Shops shows 67.1% average survivability across 22 cities, with the gap between Charlotte and lower-ranked metros revealing significant geographic variation. However, the specific location is very important: there are excellent locations even in neighborhoods that might not appear to be a great fit at the city level. Market conditions shift frequently: use StreetSpring's live tool to confirm the current picture before committing to a location.

Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →

Dessert Shops city survivability range chart: Charlotte vs New York City (2026)

Best-to-worst Dessert Shop survivability within individual metros: Charlotte, Atlanta, Detroit, Boston and New York City. Each box spans the middle of that metro's range; whiskers are its best and worst locations (2026).

All 22 Cities Ranked for Dessert Shops

Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 22 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Dessert Shops:

#MetroMetro areaChance of lasting two or more years at a good address
1CharlotteCharlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC83.1%
2AtlantaAtlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA83.1%
5HoustonHouston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX83.1%
6DenverDenver-Aurora-Centennial, CO83.1%
7OrlandoOrlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL82.2%
8Washington DCWashington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV82.2%
9SeattleSeattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA81.8%
10St. LouisSt. Louis, MO-IL81.3%
11MinneapolisMinneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI80.4%
12PhoenixPhoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ80.4%
13PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD80.4%
14DetroitDetroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI80.0%
15BaltimoreBaltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD80.0%
16PortlandPortland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA79.5%
17San FranciscoSan Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA79.5%
18ChicagoChicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN79.0%
19Tampa BayTampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL78.2%
20Los AngelesLos Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA78.2%
21MiamiMiami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL78.2%
22San DiegoSan Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA77.7%
23BostonBoston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH77.2%
24New York CityNew York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ74.5%

1. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

2. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

5. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX

6. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO

7. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

8. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

9. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

10. St. Louis Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL

11. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

12. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

13. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

14. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

15. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

16. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

17. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

18. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN

19. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

20. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

21. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

22. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA

23. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

24. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ

Key Insights

Moderate variation between cities: The difference between the #1 city (Charlotte at 83.1%) and the #24 city (New York City at 74.5%) is 8.60 percentage points. The top two metros for Dessert Shops differ by less than a percentage point of 2-year survival. Differences between neighborhoods in one metro are consistently larger.

Challenging markets: 1 city falls below 60% survivability, suggesting more difficult market conditions.

National average: Across all 22 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Dessert Shop is 67.1%.

What Makes These Cities Stand Out?

The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Dessert Shops:

  • Strong survivability signals: Charlotte leads with a 75% average chance of lasting two or more years for Dessert Shops: significantly above the national average for this business category.
  • Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Dessert Shops, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
  • Geographic distribution: The top cities span multiple U.S. regions, giving franchise operators or multi-location owners diverse market options without concentrating risk.
  • Economic conditions: The rankings for Dessert Shops account for Census neighborhood characteristics, including median household income and the housing vacancy rate, alongside competition and consumer spending.

Across the U.S., real estate professionals and business owners rely on StreetSpring's AI predictions to understand where a new venture is most likely to thrive, before signing a lease. We incorporate data from thousands of neighborhoods and hundreds of thousands of individual businesses. Our forecasting system combines proprietary data with machine learning models unavailable anywhere else.

City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:

National guides:

How current is this ranking?

Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates: particularly for Dessert Shops, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.

Can a Dessert Shop succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?

Yes, our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Dessert Shops in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Dessert Shops in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align, even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.

What tools can help me choose the right city for a Dessert Shop?

StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Dessert Shops across all 22 metros we track. For this category specifically, the model reads competition density, the consumer spending index for Dessert Shops, and Census neighborhood characteristics such as the housing vacancy rate, and turns them into the projected chance that a Dessert Shop lasts two or more years at a given address. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.

Try the Survivability Score tool →

Which US city has the best survivability for Dessert Shops?

Charlotte ranks as the #1 city in the US for Dessert Shops survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average 75% chance of lasting two or more years. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Charlotte, a Dessert Shop has approximately a 75% chance of still operating after two years, above the national average for this category. Atlanta ranks second, followed by Houston. The full ranking reflects data across 22 major US metro areas: see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.

Last reviewed: October 2026 by Robert Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring

Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.

View national technical data

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.

Methodology: Each metro's figures pool the scored locations in its published neighborhoods. Metros are ranked the way the national data file ranks them, on the chance of lasting two or more years at a good address; the typical-address figure is shown alongside. Coverage includes 22 major US metropolitan areas: Charlotte, Atlanta, Houston, Denver, Orlando, Washington DC, Seattle, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Philadelphia, Detroit, Baltimore, Portland, San Francisco, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Los Angeles, Miami, San Diego, Boston, New York City. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.