City Survivability Rankings for Dessert Shop

Name: US Business Survivability Data by City and Neighborhood 2026
Creator: StreetSpring
Published: 2026-03-25T00:00:00-05:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Dessert Shops across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Dessert Shop to succeed.

March 25, 2026•11 min read

Quick Summary

The highest-survivability city for Dessert Shop is Portland — 72% average survivability

2 of 11 analyzed US metros score above 70% for Dessert Shop survivability

The lowest-ranked city is Atlanta at 63%

National average survivability score for Dessert Shop: 66.9%

Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 11 US metro areas · Full methodology →

Summary
Top Cities for Dessert Shops
Key Insights
What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
Related Resources
How current is this ranking?
Can a Dessert Shop succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?
What tools can help me choose the right city for a Dessert Shop?
Which US city has the best survivability for Dessert Shop?

Summary

According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Portland ranks as the #1 city for opening a Dessert Shop in the United States, with an average 72% chance of surviving more than 2 years. Following close behind are San Diego with 71%, and Philadelphia with 69%. Dessert Shops sit at a national average of 66.9% survivability across our 11-city analysis, with Portland leading the field by a meaningful margin. Market conditions change daily and it is best to use StreetSpring's most current data to ensure there have not been major shifts. These rankings reflect data through early 2026 — check StreetSpring for the latest figures before any location decision.

Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →

Dessert Shop city survivability rankings — Portland leads among 11 US metros at 72% in 2026

Top 10 Cities for Dessert Shops

Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 11 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Dessert Shops:

1. Portland

Best locations: 80.4% – 91.0%
Average locations: 69.2% – 74.1%
Challenging locations: 50.0% – 65.3%
Explore Dessert Shop neighborhoods in Portland →

2. San Diego

Best locations: 79.0% – 89.0%
Average locations: 68.0% – 73.0%
Challenging locations: 47.0% – 63.7%
Explore Dessert Shop neighborhoods in San Diego →

3. Philadelphia

Best locations: 77.9% – 89.0%
Average locations: 66.3% – 71.2%
Challenging locations: 48.0% – 62.5%
Explore Dessert Shop neighborhoods in Philadelphia →

4. Denver

Best locations: 77.0% – 88.0%
Average locations: 65.4% – 70.4%
Challenging locations: 46.0% – 61.4%
Explore Dessert Shop neighborhoods in Denver →

5. Charlotte

Best locations: 76.1% – 88.0%
Average locations: 64.2% – 69.0%
Challenging locations: 48.0% – 60.9%
Explore Dessert Shop neighborhoods in Charlotte →

6. Tampa Bay

Best locations: 75.7% – 87.0%
Average locations: 64.1% – 68.9%
Challenging locations: 47.0% – 60.6%
Explore Dessert Shop neighborhoods in Tampa Bay →

7. Baltimore

Best locations: 75.5% – 87.0%
Average locations: 63.5% – 68.5%
Challenging locations: 45.0% – 59.7%
Explore Dessert Shop neighborhoods in Baltimore →

8. Chicago

Best locations: 74.5% – 86.0%
Average locations: 63.0% – 67.6%
Challenging locations: 48.0% – 59.9%
Explore Dessert Shop neighborhoods in Chicago →

9. St Louis

Best locations: 77.1% – 92.0%
Average locations: 62.1% – 68.2%
Challenging locations: 41.0% – 57.8%
Explore Dessert Shop neighborhoods in St Louis →

10. San Antonio

Best locations: 74.3% – 86.0%
Average locations: 62.8% – 67.3%
Challenging locations: 48.0% – 59.8%
Explore Dessert Shop neighborhoods in San Antonio →

Key Insights

Wide variation between cities: The difference between the #1 city (Portland at 71.8%) and the #10 city (San Antonio at 64.8%) is 7.0 percentage points. This 0.9-point variation between the #1 and #2 cities is below average for the category, suggesting that Dessert Shops are particularly responsive to local market conditions.

National average: Across all 11 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Dessert Shop is 66.9%.

What Makes These Cities Stand Out?

The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Dessert Shops:

Strong survivability signals: Portland leads with a 72% average survivability score for Dessert Shops — significantly above the national average for this business category.
Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Dessert Shops, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
Geographic distribution: The top cities span multiple U.S. regions, giving franchise operators or multi-location owners diverse market options without concentrating risk.
Economic conditions: All top-ranked cities show strong median household incomes and low vacancy rates in the neighborhoods where Dessert Shops perform best.

Across the U.S., real estate professionals and business owners rely on StreetSpring's AI predictions to understand where a new venture is most likely to thrive, before signing a lease. The training dataset includes millions of transactions and business lifecycle events. Our proprietary models incorporate data sources not available through any public platform.

City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:

National guides:

How current is this ranking?

Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates — particularly for Dessert Shops, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.

Can a Dessert Shop succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?

Yes — our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Dessert Shops in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Dessert Shops in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align — even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.

What tools can help me choose the right city for a Dessert Shop?

StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Dessert Shops across all 11 metros we track. For this category specifically, the tool surfaces competition density, consumer spending index for Dessert Shops, and commercial vacancy rates — the factors that most consistently predict whether a Dessert Shop will still be operating after two years. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.

Try the Survivability Score tool →

Which US city has the best survivability for Dessert Shop?

Portland ranks as the #1 city in the US for Dessert Shop survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average score of 72%. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Portland, a Dessert Shop has approximately a 72% chance of still operating after two years — above the national average for this category. San Diego ranks second, followed by Philadelphia. The full ranking reflects data across 11 major US metro areas — see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.

Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 25 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.

View national technical data

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and foot traffic data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.

Methodology: City rankings aggregate neighborhood-level Survivability Scores (max, average, and min) across all analyzed neighborhoods in each metro area. Rankings reflect average conditions but do not account for variation within cities. Coverage includes 11 major US metropolitan areas: Portland, San Diego, Philadelphia, Denver, Charlotte, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Chicago, St Louis, San Antonio, Atlanta.

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