Survivability Rankings for Dessert Shop in San Francisco
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the best and worst neighborhoods in San Francisco to open a Dessert Shop, from Marina (78% survival) to Sun Terrace (...
By Robert Koons | Last reviewed: September 2026 | Methodology
Quick Summary
- Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
- #1 Neighborhood: Marina: 78% average survivability for Dessert Shop
- Neighborhoods at or above 70%: 93 of 108 analyzed
- City-wide average: 76% for Dessert Shops
- Most challenging area: Sun Terrace at 68%
- Revenue advantage (top vs. avg location): ~8.6% more expected revenue in Marina
- Data freshness: 2026 data · Full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- 10 Best Neighborhoods
- Where Would a Dessert Shop Make the Most Money?
- What Should I Consider?
- Where Should I Start?
- FAQ: Best Neighborhoods
- FAQ: Can a Dessert Shop Succeed in Lower-Ranked Areas?
- FAQ: How Often Are Rankings Updated?
- FAQ: Is a Dessert Shop a Good Tenant?
- Landlord Survivability Data
- Best Neighborhoods for Any Business
Summary
Of all the neighborhoods in and around San Francisco, Marina ranks #1 for opening a Dessert Shop with 78% average chance of surviving more than 2 years, with the best locations offering 82% and the most challenging locations in Marina at 74%. The worst neighborhoods include Sun Terrace with 68% average chance. Remember that a neighborhood average smooths over wide variation: your exact block could significantly outperform.
What Are the 10 Best Neighborhoods in and Around San Francisco to Open a Dessert Shop?
Marina ranks #1 of 108 neighborhoods analyzed in and around San Francisco for Dessert Shop survivability, with a 78% chance of lasting two or more years as of 2026. The top 10 neighborhoods are:
| Rank | Neighborhood | At a good address | Average Locations | Best Locations | Challenging Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina | 80.7% | 76.0% to 81.0% | 80.0% to 82.0% | 74.0% to 75.0% |
| 2 | Cow Hollow | 80.4% | 77.0% to 81.0% | 80.0% to 82.0% | 76.0% to 78.0% |
| 3 | Stonestown | 80.1% | 75.0% to 80.0% | 80.0% to 81.0% | 73.0% to 75.0% |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 80.0% | 76.0% to 80.0% | 79.0% to 81.0% | 73.0% to 75.0% |
| 5 | Fairway Park | 80.0% | 75.0% to 80.0% | 79.0% to 81.0% | 72.0% to 74.0% |
| 6 | Tenderloin | 79.9% | 77.0% to 81.0% | 79.0% to 81.0% | 77.0% to 79.0% |
| 7 | South of Market | 79.9% | 76.0% to 80.0% | 80.0% to 82.0% | 74.0% to 75.0% |
| 8 | Temescal | 79.8% | 76.0% to 81.0% | 80.0% to 81.0% | 75.0% to 77.0% |
| 9 | Russian Hill | 79.7% | 77.0% to 81.0% | 79.0% to 81.0% | 76.0% to 78.0% |
| 10 | Financial District | 79.7% | 76.0% to 81.0% | 80.0% to 81.0% | 74.0% to 76.0% |
However, individual locations vary widely, and even in lower-scoring neighborhoods there are pockets that perform exceptionally well. However, market conditions change daily, and it's best to use StreetSpring's live data to check the Survivability Score for a specific address.
Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each neighborhood. See our full methodology →
Try StreetSpring to see if this location is still the best and see if there are locations to rent in this area right now.
Where in or Around San Francisco Would a Dessert Shop Make the Most Money?
In Marina, the best possible location offers the opportunity of making ~8.6% more than the average location in or around San Francisco.
On the other hand, in Sun Terrace, the worst possible location could result in making ~23.4% less than the average location in the city.
The right location can make a business; the wrong one can break it. Opening a Dessert Shop in San Francisco requires careful location choice. Across 108 neighborhoods analyzed, the overall average survival chance for a new Dessert Shop is 76% for lasting more than 2 years, due to a combination of many factors across competition, consumer spending, and location dynamics. Our models show that the optimal location profile varies dramatically from one business category to the next.
What Should I Consider When Opening a Dessert Shop in or Around San Francisco?
When selecting a location for a Dessert Shop in or around San Francisco, it is crucial to select a location with a very high Survivability Score. Our models show that Revenue Capture Score explains more outcome variance than any other individual metric. StreetSpring computes this by projecting the business's market share, which is based on the quality and quantity of primary, secondary, and tertiary competitors. StreetSpring's training dataset includes millions of transactions and business lifecycle events. Clustering works when it draws more customers to the area than any single business could alone. StreetSpring uses its own proprietary forecasting tools to make these predictions. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.
This can be summarized as:
Revenue Capture Score = Projected Market Share × Forecasted Spend on Specific Business
Related: Survivability Score: How We Calculate It & Why It Matters
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. StreetSpring's Survivability Scores are updated regularly, so the most accurate prediction for your exact storefront is always available in the live tool.
Where in or Around San Francisco Should I Start a Dessert Shop?
The neighborhoods with the highest survivability for this business type are Marina, Cow Hollow, and Stonestown, while the most challenging neighborhoods would be Sun Terrace, Mt Diablo, and Clayton (Concord). Remember that a neighborhood average smooths over wide variation: your exact block could significantly outperform. The live platform incorporates the most recent competitor, vacancy, and spending data for your exact address.
Related Articles:
- Business Survivability Rankings: San Francisco
- Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: San Francisco
- National City Survivability: Dessert Shop
- National Neighborhood Survivability: Dessert Shop
What Are the Best Neighborhoods in San Francisco to Open a Dessert Shop?
Based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, the top neighborhood for a Dessert Shop in San Francisco is Marina with 78% average survivability, followed by Cow Hollow and Stonestown. 93 of 108 neighborhoods analyzed exceed 70% two-year survival.
Market dynamics shift frequently; validate these insights with real-time data from StreetSpring.
Can a Dessert Shop Succeed in Lower-Ranked Neighborhoods in San Francisco?
Yes, neighborhood averages mask significant block-by-block variation. Even in neighborhoods ranked outside the top 10, individual storefronts with strong foot traffic, low direct competition, and favorable lease terms can outperform the area average. However, individual locations vary widely, and even in lower-scoring neighborhoods there are pockets that perform exceptionally well. Always check your specific address in StreetSpring's live platform for the most accurate prediction.
How Often Are Dessert Shop Rankings in San Francisco Updated?
StreetSpring recalculates survivability scores regularly using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. Rankings are updated quarterly; the live tool always reflects the most current predictions for any address in San Francisco.
Is a Dessert Shop a Good Tenant for San Francisco Landlords?
In Marina, StreetSpring forecasts a 76.0% to 81.0% average chance for a new Dessert Shop to survive more than 2 years, depending on the exact storefront. Check the current Survivability Score for any address instantly.
Landlord Survivability Data for Dessert Shop in San Francisco
Landlords in San Francisco's top three neighborhoods for Dessert Shop can expect the following average survivability for new tenants:
- Marina: 76.0% to 81.0%
- Cow Hollow: 77.0% to 81.0%
- Stonestown: 75.0% to 80.0%
Get a live Survivability Score for your specific storefront at no cost.
StreetSpring generates location-specific predictions tailored to your exact site.
Related: How Landlord Representatives Can Reduce Vacancy & Increase Tenant Longevity
What Are the Best Neighborhoods in or Around San Francisco for My Business Overall?
You can see the best neighborhoods in or around San Francisco to open any type of business in our article Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: San Francisco.
Related Resources
- Business Survivability Rankings: San Francisco: See how Dessert Shop compares to all other business types in San Francisco
- Best Cities to Open a Dessert Shop in the US: National city-level survivability rankings for Dessert Shop
- Business Survivability in Marina, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #1 neighborhood
- Business Survivability in Cow Hollow, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #2 neighborhood
- Business Survivability in Stonestown, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #3 neighborhood
Technical note: Aggregated survivability rankings for San Francisco are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
View technical data for San Francisco
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.