City Survivability Rankings for Barbecue Restaurant

StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Barbecue Restaurants across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Barbecue Restaurant to succeed.

•17 min read

Quick Summary

  • Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
  • The highest-survivability city for Barbecue Restaurant is San Antonio: 81.77% average survivability
  • 24 of 24 analyzed US metros score above 70% for Barbecue Restaurant survivability
  • The lowest-ranked city is New York City at 79.68%
  • National average chance of lasting two or more years for Barbecue Restaurant: 81.0%
  • Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 24 US metro areas · Full methodology →

Table of Contents

Summary

According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, San Antonio ranks as the #1 city for opening a Barbecue Restaurant in the United States, with an average 81.77% chance of surviving more than 2 years. Following close behind are Portland with 81.75%, and St Louis with 81.58%. Among the 24 major US metros we track for Barbecue Restaurants, 24 exceed 80% survivability: a meaningful share reflecting the category's durability in strong markets. City-wide statistics are directional, not definitive; the best decision comes from analyzing your specific storefront. The best way to use these rankings is as a starting point: layer in your own market research and local knowledge before committing.

Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →

Barbecue Restaurants city survivability range chart: St Louis vs Dallas (2026)

Best-to-worst Barbecue Restaurant survivability within individual metros: St Louis, Detroit, San Antonio, Denver and Dallas. Each box spans the middle of that metro's range; whiskers are its best and worst locations (2026).

All 24 Cities Ranked for Barbecue Restaurants

Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 24 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Barbecue Restaurants:

#MetroMetro areaChance of lasting two or more years
1San AntonioSan Antonio-New Braunfels, TX81.77%
2PortlandPortland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA81.75%
3St Louis81.58%
4CharlotteCharlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC81.38%
5OrlandoOrlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL81.25%
6DetroitDetroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI81.05%
7AtlantaAtlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA81.04%
8PhoenixPhoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ81.03%
9BaltimoreBaltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD81.02%
10Tampa BayTampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL80.92%
11San DiegoSan Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA80.91%
12San FranciscoSan Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA80.81%
13MinneapolisMinneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI80.72%
14HoustonHouston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX80.71%
15Los AngelesLos Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA80.64%
16ChicagoChicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN80.58%
17SeattleSeattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA80.53%
18DenverDenver-Aurora-Centennial, CO80.52%
19DallasDallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX80.41%
20MiamiMiami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL80.32%
21Washington DCWashington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV80.31%
22BostonBoston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH80.24%
23PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD79.99%
24New York CityNew York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ79.68%

1. San Antonio Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX

2. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

3. St Louis

4. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

5. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

6. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

7. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

8. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

9. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

10. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

11. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA

12. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

13. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

14. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX

15. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

16. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN

17. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

18. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO

19. Dallas Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

20. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

21. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

22. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

23. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

24. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ

Key Insights

Cities cluster tightly: The difference between the #1 city (San Antonio at 81.77%) and the #24 city (New York City at 79.68%) is 2.09 percentage points. Barbecue Restaurants show a difference of under a point between the top two metros. Treat this ranking as a starting filter, not a decision.

Strong performers: 24 cities show Survivability Scores above 80%, indicating highly favorable conditions for Barbecue Restaurants.

National average: Across all 24 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Barbecue Restaurant is 81.0%.

What Makes These Cities Stand Out?

The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Barbecue Restaurants:

  • Strong survivability signals: San Antonio leads with a 82% average chance of lasting two or more years for Barbecue Restaurants: significantly above the national average for this business category.
  • Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Barbecue Restaurants, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
  • Geographic distribution: The top cities span multiple U.S. regions, giving franchise operators or multi-location owners diverse market options without concentrating risk.
  • Supply chain access: Cities at the top of this ranking benefit from mature supplier networks for this category, reducing operating costs and inventory lead times.

Across the U.S., real estate professionals and business owners rely on StreetSpring's AI predictions to understand where a new venture is most likely to thrive, before signing a lease. StreetSpring measures competition through a 30-factor framework. StreetSpring generates these results using its proprietary prediction system, tailored to each business and location.

Best Neighborhoods Across the Spectrum

National rankings tell only part of the story. Even cities further down the list contain neighborhoods where Barbecue Restaurants thrive. A few examples:

San Antonio: ranked #1 nationally: the strongest market for Barbecue Restaurants

  • New-Braunfels (73% survivability)
  • Southpark (72% survivability)
  • Hillcrest (70% survivability)
  • Loma-Vista (69% survivability)
  • Tobin-Hill (67% survivability)

See full neighborhood rankings for San Antonio →

New York City: ranked #24 of 24: among the lower-ranked national markets

  • Norwood (82% survivability)
  • Navy-Yard (81% survivability)
  • Clinton-Hill (81% survivability)
  • Crown-Heights (81% survivability)
  • Williamsburg (81% survivability)

See full neighborhood rankings for New York City →

A Barbecue Restaurant can succeed in a city ranked #1 or #24: what matters is finding the right neighborhood within that market.

City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:

National guides:

How current is this ranking?

Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates: particularly for Barbecue Restaurants, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.

Can a Barbecue Restaurant succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?

Yes, our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Barbecue Restaurants in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Barbecue Restaurants in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align, even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.

What tools can help me choose the right city for a Barbecue Restaurant?

StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Barbecue Restaurants across all 24 metros we track. For this category specifically, the tool surfaces competition density, consumer spending index for Barbecue Restaurants, and commercial vacancy rates: the factors that most consistently predict whether a Barbecue Restaurant will still be operating after two years. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.

Try the Survivability Score tool →

Which US city has the best survivability for Barbecue Restaurants?

San Antonio ranks as the #1 city in the US for Barbecue Restaurants survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average 82% chance of lasting two or more years. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in San Antonio, a Barbecue Restaurant has approximately a 82% chance of still operating after two years, above the national average for this category. Portland ranks second, followed by St Louis. The full ranking reflects data across 24 major US metro areas: see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.

Last reviewed: September 2026 by Robert Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring

Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.

View national technical data

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.

Methodology: City rankings aggregate neighborhood-level Survivability Scores (max, average, and min) across all analyzed neighborhoods in each metro area. Rankings reflect average conditions but do not account for variation within cities. Coverage includes 24 major US metropolitan areas: San Antonio, Portland, St Louis, Charlotte, Orlando, Detroit, Atlanta, Phoenix, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, San Diego, San Francisco, Minneapolis, Houston, Los Angeles, Chicago, Seattle, Denver, Dallas, Miami, Washington DC, Boston, Philadelphia, New York City. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.