City Survivability Rankings for Grocery Store
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Grocery Stores across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Grocery Store to succeed.
Quick Summary
- The highest-survivability city for Grocery Store is Dallas — 75% average survivability
- 18 of 24 analyzed US metros score above 70% for Grocery Store survivability
- The lowest-ranked city is Minneapolis at 70%
- National average survivability score for Grocery Store: 71.2%
- Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 24 US metro areas · Full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- Top Cities for Grocery Stores
- Key Insights
- What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
- Best Neighborhoods Across the Spectrum
- Related Resources
- How current is this ranking?
- Can a Grocery Store succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?
- What tools can help me choose the right city for a Grocery Store?
- Which US city has the best survivability for Grocery Stores?
Summary
According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Dallas ranks as the #1 city for opening a Grocery Store in the United States, with an average 75% chance of surviving more than 2 years. Following close behind are Miami with 74%, and Los Angeles with 72%. The national picture for Grocery Stores shows 71.2% average survivability across 24 cities, with the gap between Dallas and lower-ranked metros revealing significant geographic variation. Remember that a city's average score smooths over wide variation — your exact neighborhood could significantly outperform the city average. Market conditions shift frequently — use StreetSpring's live tool to confirm the current picture before committing to a location.
Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →
Grocery Store city survivability rankings — Dallas leads among 24 US metros at 75% in 2026
Ranked: 24 Cities by Grocery Store Survivability
Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 24 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Grocery Stores:
1. Dallas Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Best locations: 83.4% – 94.0%
- Average locations: 71.3% – 77.1%
- Challenging locations: 46.0% – 66.1%
- Explore Grocery Store neighborhoods in Dallas →
What the score range across cities tells you
2. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
- Best locations: 82.8% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 71.1% – 76.6%
- Challenging locations: 47.0% – 66.2%
- Explore Grocery Store neighborhoods in Miami →
3. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
- Best locations: 81.9% – 94.0%
- Average locations: 68.6% – 74.7%
- Challenging locations: 43.0% – 63.3%
- Explore Grocery Store neighborhoods in Los Angeles →
4. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- Best locations: 81.5% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 68.2% – 74.5%
- Challenging locations: 40.0% – 62.4%
5. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
- Best locations: 81.4% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 68.4% – 74.5%
- Challenging locations: 42.0% – 63.0%
6. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
- Best locations: 80.5% – 91.0%
- Average locations: 68.9% – 74.2%
- Challenging locations: 47.0% – 64.4%
- Explore Grocery Store neighborhoods in Houston →
7. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
- Best locations: 81.4% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 69.1% – 74.4%
- Challenging locations: 49.0% – 65.0%
8. San Antonio Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
- Best locations: 80.5% – 91.0%
- Average locations: 68.8% – 74.2%
- Challenging locations: 46.0% – 64.1%
9. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
- Best locations: 79.9% – 90.0%
- Average locations: 68.3% – 73.9%
- Challenging locations: 43.0% – 63.1%
- Explore Grocery Store neighborhoods in San Francisco →
10. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Best locations: 80.3% – 91.0%
- Average locations: 68.6% – 73.9%
- Challenging locations: 47.0% – 64.2%
- Explore Grocery Store neighborhoods in Phoenix →
11. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
- Best locations: 80.3% – 91.0%
- Average locations: 67.9% – 73.8%
- Challenging locations: 42.0% – 62.6%
12. St Louis
- Best locations: 81.0% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 67.5% – 73.8%
- Challenging locations: 41.0% – 62.1%
The metro-level signals behind these scores
13. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
- Best locations: 80.8% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 67.2% – 73.5%
- Challenging locations: 40.0% – 61.6%
- Explore Grocery Store neighborhoods in New York City →
14. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
- Best locations: 79.9% – 91.0%
- Average locations: 67.6% – 73.3%
- Challenging locations: 44.0% – 62.8%
15. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
- Best locations: 80.4% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 67.1% – 73.4%
- Challenging locations: 40.0% – 61.6%
- Explore Grocery Store neighborhoods in Washington DC →
16. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN
- Best locations: 81.1% – 94.0%
- Average locations: 66.6% – 73.4%
- Challenging locations: 37.0% – 60.5%
- Explore Grocery Store neighborhoods in Chicago →
17. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO
- Best locations: 79.3% – 90.0%
- Average locations: 67.2% – 72.9%
- Challenging locations: 42.0% – 62.0%
- Explore Grocery Store neighborhoods in Denver →
18. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
- Best locations: 80.5% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 66.5% – 73.0%
- Challenging locations: 39.0% – 60.9%
- Explore Grocery Store neighborhoods in Detroit →
19. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
- Best locations: 80.3% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 66.4% – 72.7%
- Challenging locations: 40.0% – 61.0%
- Explore Grocery Store neighborhoods in Philadelphia →
20. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
- Best locations: 80.8% – 94.0%
- Average locations: 66.5% – 72.8%
- Challenging locations: 41.0% – 61.3%
21. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
- Best locations: 79.8% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 66.9% – 72.5%
- Challenging locations: 45.0% – 62.4%
- Explore Grocery Store neighborhoods in Seattle →
22. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
- Best locations: 79.4% – 91.0%
- Average locations: 65.9% – 72.4%
- Challenging locations: 37.0% – 60.0%
- Explore Grocery Store neighborhoods in Boston →
23. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
- Best locations: 79.3% – 91.0%
- Average locations: 66.5% – 72.4%
- Challenging locations: 42.0% – 61.5%
24. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
- Best locations: 79.6% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 66.1% – 72.2%
- Challenging locations: 41.0% – 61.0%
- Explore Grocery Store neighborhoods in Minneapolis →
What the Data Reveals
| Signal | Where strong-survivability cities outperform | What drags weaker cities down |
|---|---|---|
| Income distribution shape | Cities with a broad middle-class income band that supports the subtype's price tier. | Cities with bifurcated income distributions where the subtype's price point falls into the middle gap. |
| Anchor-tenant density | Cities with high concentration of universities, hospitals, transit hubs within a 1-mile radius of typical storefronts. | Cities where anchor institutions are isolated in suburbs or single-purpose campuses with no street-level spillover. |
| Average commercial rent per sqft | Cities where the median commercial rate fits the subtype's typical revenue-per-sqft envelope (rent < 10% of expected gross). | Cities where rents have outpaced revenue growth, pushing rent-burden ratios past 15%. |
Wide variation between cities: The difference between the #1 city (Dallas at 74.8%) and the #24 city (Minneapolis at 69.5%) is 5.3 percentage points. For Grocery Stores, the 0.4-point difference between top and second-ranked cities is a strong signal that geographic market selection directly drives business outcomes.
National average: Across all 24 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Grocery Store is 71.2%.
The Common Threads in Top Grocery Store Cities
The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Grocery Stores:
- Strong survivability signals: Dallas leads with a 75% average survivability score for Grocery Stores — significantly above the national average for this business category.
- Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Grocery Stores, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
- Foot traffic infrastructure: High-scoring cities combine transit access, walkable commercial corridors, and anchor tenants that drive consistent daily traffic past storefronts.
- Regulatory environment: Top-ranked cities tend to have streamlined commercial permitting and lower business tax burdens relative to their metro size, reducing friction for new operators.
Our AI platform forecasts business outcomes at the address level — giving entrepreneurs and landlords alike a data-driven edge. Our models are trained on data from businesses reaching more than 180 million+ Americans. Every score is produced by our in-house models, continuously refined against real-world business outcomes.
The Strongest Neighborhoods Across All 24 Markets
Where you open matters more than which city ranks highest. The strongest neighborhoods for Grocery Stores can be found across the entire national distribution:
New York City — ranked #13 of 24 — a middle-of-the-pack national market
- Concourse (76% survivability)
- Carroll-Gardens (75% survivability)
- Melrose (75% survivability)
- High-Bridge (74% survivability)
- Bedford-Park (73% survivability)
See full neighborhood rankings for New York City →
Minneapolis — ranked #24 of 24 — among the lower-ranked national markets
- Calhoun (67% survivability)
- East-Isles (66% survivability)
- Whittier (63% survivability)
- Lowry-Hill (63% survivability)
- Seward (63% survivability)
See full neighborhood rankings for Minneapolis →
These examples show that a city's national rank for Grocery Stores is a starting signal — neighborhood-level data is what drives an actual location decision.
Visual Data
Related Resources
City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:
- Survivability Rankings for Grocery Store in Dallas
- Business Survivability Rankings: Dallas
- Survivability Rankings for Grocery Store in Miami
- Business Survivability Rankings: Miami
- Survivability Rankings for Grocery Store in Los Angeles
- Business Survivability Rankings: Los Angeles
- Business Survivability Rankings: Tampa Bay
- Business Survivability Rankings: Portland
National guides:
- National Neighborhood Survivability Rankings for Grocery Stores
- Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: Dallas
What's the update cadence for this ranking?
Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates — particularly for Grocery Stores, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.
Do Grocery Stores only work in top-10 cities?
Yes — our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Grocery Stores in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Grocery Stores in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align — even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.
Which tools rank cities for a Grocery Store survivability?
StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Grocery Stores across all 24 metros we track. For this category specifically, the tool surfaces competition density, consumer spending index for Grocery Stores, and commercial vacancy rates — the factors that most consistently predict whether a Grocery Store will still be operating after two years. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.
Try the Survivability Score tool →
Which US city has the best survivability for Grocery Stores?
Dallas ranks as the #1 city in the US for Grocery Stores survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average score of 75%. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Dallas, a Grocery Store has approximately a 75% chance of still operating after two years — above the national average for this category. Miami ranks second, followed by Los Angeles. The full ranking reflects data across 24 major US metro areas — see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.
Last reviewed: April 26, 2026 by Bobby Koons, StreetSpring founder — updated weekly
Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and foot traffic data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.
Methodology: City rankings aggregate neighborhood-level Survivability Scores (max, average, and min) across all analyzed neighborhoods in each metro area. Rankings reflect average conditions but do not account for variation within cities. Coverage includes 24 major US metropolitan areas: Dallas, Miami, Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, Portland, Houston, Orlando, San Antonio, San Francisco, Phoenix, San Diego, St Louis, New York City, Charlotte, Washington DC, Chicago, Denver, Detroit, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Seattle, Boston, Atlanta, Minneapolis.