City Survivability Rankings for Grocery Store

StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Grocery Stores across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Grocery Store to succeed.

•17 min read

Quick Summary

  • Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
  • The highest-survivability city for Grocery Store is Dallas: 76.80% average survivability
  • 18 of 24 analyzed US metros score above 70% for Grocery Store survivability
  • The lowest-ranked city is Minneapolis at 74.43%
  • National average chance of lasting two or more years for Grocery Store: 75.0%
  • Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 24 US metro areas · Full methodology →

Table of Contents

Summary

According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Dallas ranks as the #1 city for opening a Grocery Store in the United States, with an average 76.80% chance of surviving more than 2 years. Following close behind are Miami with 76.62%, and Los Angeles with 75.57%. Our 24-city dataset shows Grocery Stores achieving 75.0% average survivability nationally: Dallas pulling notably ahead of the pack. These averages mask significant neighborhood-by-neighborhood variation; a lower-ranked city can still contain high-potential storefronts. Market conditions shift frequently: use StreetSpring's live tool to confirm the current picture before committing to a location.

Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →

Grocery Stores city survivability range chart: Dallas vs Denver (2026)

Best-to-worst Grocery Store survivability within individual metros: Dallas, Los Angeles, Washington DC, San Francisco and Denver. Each box spans the middle of that metro's range; whiskers are its best and worst locations (2026).

All 24 Cities Ranked for Grocery Stores

Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 24 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Grocery Stores:

#MetroMetro areaChance of lasting two or more years
1DallasDallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX76.80%
2MiamiMiami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL76.62%
3Los AngelesLos Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA75.57%
4Tampa BayTampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL75.56%
5PortlandPortland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA75.54%
6OrlandoOrlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL75.49%
7HoustonHouston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX75.48%
8San AntonioSan Antonio-New Braunfels, TX75.47%
9San FranciscoSan Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA75.42%
10PhoenixPhoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ75.35%
11San DiegoSan Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA75.31%
12St Louis75.16%
13New York CityNew York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ75.05%
14CharlotteCharlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC75.04%
15Washington DCWashington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV75.03%
16ChicagoChicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN74.92%
17DenverDenver-Aurora-Centennial, CO74.91%
18DetroitDetroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI74.78%
19PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD74.64%
20BaltimoreBaltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD74.62%
21SeattleSeattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA74.60%
22BostonBoston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH74.59%
23AtlantaAtlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA74.56%
24MinneapolisMinneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI74.43%

1. Dallas Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

2. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

3. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

4. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

5. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

6. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

7. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX

8. San Antonio Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX

9. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

10. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

11. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA

12. St Louis

13. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ

14. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

15. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

16. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN

17. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO

18. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

19. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

20. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

21. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

22. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

23. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

24. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

Key Insights

Cities cluster tightly: The difference between the #1 city (Dallas at 76.80%) and the #24 city (Minneapolis at 74.43%) is 2.37 percentage points. A 0.2-point gap between Dallas and Miami is small. Address-level differences inside a single metro run much wider for Grocery Stores.

National average: Across all 24 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Grocery Store is 75.0%.

What Makes These Cities Stand Out?

The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Grocery Stores:

  • Strong survivability signals: Dallas leads with a 77% average chance of lasting two or more years for Grocery Stores: significantly above the national average for this business category.
  • Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Grocery Stores, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
  • Foot traffic infrastructure: High-scoring cities combine transit access, walkable commercial corridors, and anchor tenants that drive consistent daily traffic past storefronts.
  • Regulatory environment: Top-ranked cities tend to have streamlined commercial permitting and lower business tax burdens relative to their metro size, reducing friction for new operators.

StreetSpring's AI models reveal the survivability of businesses in every major U.S. neighborhood, giving agents and entrepreneurs a trusted way to see their future success before opening day. The analysis behind these rankings spans millions of data points across competition, spending, and mobility. Our proprietary models incorporate data sources not available through any public platform.

Best Neighborhoods Across the Spectrum

Where you open matters more than which city ranks highest. The strongest neighborhoods for Grocery Stores can be found across the entire national distribution:

New York City: ranked #13 of 24: a middle-of-the-pack national market

  • Concourse (76% survivability)
  • Carroll-Gardens (75% survivability)
  • Melrose (75% survivability)
  • High-Bridge (74% survivability)
  • Bedford-Park (73% survivability)

See full neighborhood rankings for New York City →

Minneapolis: ranked #24 of 24: among the lower-ranked national markets

  • Calhoun (67% survivability)
  • East-Isles (66% survivability)
  • Whittier (63% survivability)
  • Lowry-Hill (63% survivability)
  • Seward (63% survivability)

See full neighborhood rankings for Minneapolis →

These examples show that a city's national rank for Grocery Stores is a starting signal: neighborhood-level data is what drives an actual location decision.

City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:

National guides:

How current is this ranking?

Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates: particularly for Grocery Stores, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.

Can a Grocery Store succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?

Yes, our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Grocery Stores in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Grocery Stores in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align, even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.

What tools can help me choose the right city for a Grocery Store?

StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Grocery Stores across all 24 metros we track. For this category specifically, the tool surfaces competition density, consumer spending index for Grocery Stores, and commercial vacancy rates: the factors that most consistently predict whether a Grocery Store will still be operating after two years. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.

Try the Survivability Score tool →

Which US city has the best survivability for Grocery Stores?

Dallas ranks as the #1 city in the US for Grocery Stores survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average 77% chance of lasting two or more years. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Dallas, a Grocery Store has approximately a 77% chance of still operating after two years, above the national average for this category. Miami ranks second, followed by Los Angeles. The full ranking reflects data across 24 major US metro areas: see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.

Last reviewed: September 2026 by Robert Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring

Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.

View national technical data

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.

Methodology: City rankings aggregate neighborhood-level Survivability Scores (max, average, and min) across all analyzed neighborhoods in each metro area. Rankings reflect average conditions but do not account for variation within cities. Coverage includes 24 major US metropolitan areas: Dallas, Miami, Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, Portland, Orlando, Houston, San Antonio, San Francisco, Phoenix, San Diego, St Louis, New York City, Charlotte, Washington DC, Chicago, Denver, Detroit, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Seattle, Boston, Atlanta, Minneapolis. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.