What is the best neighborhood in Chicago to open a Grocery Store?

Based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, the best neighborhood in Chicago to open a Grocery Store is Rogers Park, with 69% average survivability. 0 of 86 neighborhoods analyzed exceed the 70% two-year survival threshold.

How much more revenue can a Grocery Store make in the best vs. average Chicago neighborhood?

In Rogers Park, the best possible Grocery Store location in Chicago offers approximately 10.7% more expected revenue than the average location. The worst-performing neighborhoods could yield approximately 12.7% less than average.

What is the city-wide average survivability for Grocery Store in Chicago?

The city-wide average survivability for Grocery Store across Chicago is 63% for surviving more than 2 years. Top neighborhoods like Rogers Park substantially outperform this average, reaching 69%.

What are the worst neighborhoods for Grocery Store in Chicago?

The most challenging neighborhoods in Chicago for Grocery Store include Pilsen with 55% average survival chance, West Side, and Irving Woods. These rankings are based on the latest available data; check StreetSpring for real-time updates.

What should I consider when opening a Grocery Store in Chicago?

When evaluating a potential location, Revenue Capture Score should be the first number you look at. StreetSpring computes Revenue Capture Score by projecting the business's market share based on competitor quality and quantity, mobility patterns, and forecasted consumer spending for the specific business type.

Survivability Rankings for Grocery Store in Chicago

StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the best and worst neighborhoods in Chicago to open a Grocery Store, from Rogers Park (69% survival) to Pilsen (55%).

April 24, 2026•17 min read

By Bobby Koons | Last reviewed by Bobby Koons on May 12, 2026 | Methodology

Quick Summary

#1 Neighborhood: Rogers Park — 69% average survivability for Grocery Store

Neighborhoods at or above 70%: 0 of 86 analyzed

City-wide average: 63% for Grocery Stores

Most challenging area: Pilsen at 55%

Revenue advantage (top vs. avg location): ~10.7% more expected revenue in Rogers Park

Data freshness: 2026 data · Full methodology →

Summary
10 Best Neighborhoods
Where Would a Grocery Store Make the Most Money?
What Should I Consider?
Where Should I Start?
FAQ: Best Neighborhoods
FAQ: Can a Grocery Store Succeed in Lower-Ranked Areas?
FAQ: How Often Are Rankings Updated?
FAQ: Is a Grocery Store a Good Tenant?
Landlord Survivability Data
Best Neighborhoods for Any Business

Summary

Rogers Park leads Chicago's 2026 survivability rankings for Grocery Store operators with 69% average chance of surviving more than 2 years, with the best locations offering 76% and the most challenging locations in Rogers Park at 56%. The worst neighborhoods include Pilsen with 55% average chance. These averages are directional, not definitive; the best decision comes from analyzing your specific storefront.

Where in Chicago Should You Open a Grocery Store?

**How Rogers Park compares:** Rogers Park — the top-ranked neighborhood for Grocery Stores in Chicago — has a profile that most resembles **Rock Lake (Orlando)** and **Skyland (Washington DC)**. All three share blue-collar job mix, longer commutes, and low destination density, giving operators a wider reference set than a single city's data alone.

**Failure pattern for Grocery Stores in Chicago.** Across 86 tracked neighborhoods, survivability for this subtype spans **55% to 69%** — a 14-point gap. **Rogers Park** leads at 69% (no existing competitors in our index), while **Pilsen** sits at 55%. The dominant failure mode for a Grocery Store in Chicago is neighborhood selection: a 14-point head start is on the table before the lease is signed.

Rogers Park ranks #1 of 86 neighborhoods analyzed in and around Chicago for Grocery Store survivability with a score of 69% as of 2026. The top 10 neighborhoods are:

Notable runners-up worth a second look

Rank	Neighborhood	Best Locations	Average Locations	Challenging Locations
1	Rogers Park	73.0% – 77.0%	67.4% – 71.3%	55.0% – 59.0%
2	Kenwood	72.0% – 76.0%	65.8% – 69.7%	58.0% – 62.0%
3	Budlong Woods	74.0% – 78.0%	65.7% – 69.6%	51.0% – 55.0%
4	Southwest	72.0% – 76.0%	65.6% – 69.5%	47.0% – 51.0%
5	West Town	73.0% – 77.0%	65.3% – 69.2%	51.0% – 55.0%
6	New Eastside	72.0% – 76.0%	65.3% – 69.2%	51.0% – 55.0%
7	River North	73.0% – 77.0%	65.1% – 69.0%	56.0% – 60.0%
8	Roseland	74.0% – 78.0%	65.1% – 69.0%	49.0% – 53.0%
9	Margate Park	72.0% – 76.0%	64.9% – 68.8%	53.0% – 57.0%
10	Andersonville	72.0% – 76.0%	64.9% – 68.8%	53.0% – 57.0%

Reading the gap between #1 and #10

Even neighborhoods with modest average scores can harbor exceptional individual locations. Neighborhood rankings are useful, but the exact odds for your location can only be seen by running a current survivability check in StreetSpring.

Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each neighborhood. See our full methodology →

Try StreetSpring to see if this location is still the best and see if there are locations to rent in this area right now.

Where Grocery Stores Earn the Most in Chicago

In Rogers Park, the best possible location offers the opportunity of making ~10.7% more than the average location in or around Chicago.

On the other hand, in Pilsen, the worst possible location could result in making ~12.7% less than the average location in the city.

Where you open matters more than anything else. Opening a Grocery Store in Chicago requires careful location choice. Across 86 neighborhoods analyzed, the overall average survival chance for a new Grocery Store is 63% for lasting more than 2 years — due to a combination of many factors across competition, consumer spending, and location dynamics. What makes a location ideal varies by business type — foot traffic patterns, competitor proximity, and consumer demographics all play different roles.

What Matters Most When Opening a Grocery Store in Chicago

Selecting a high-survivability address is the single most cost-effective risk reduction available before signing a lease. Everything downstream depends on it. When evaluating a potential location, Revenue Capture Score should be the first number you look at. StreetSpring computes this by projecting the business's market share, which is based on the quality and quantity of primary, secondary, and tertiary competitors. Our models are built using machine learning trained on millions of commercial real estate data points. Clustering works when it draws more customers to the area than any single business could alone. Our prediction system is built from scratch using proprietary data pipelines and validated against actual business lifecycles.

Consideration	Common pitfall	What to verify before signing
Parking & visibility	Storefront looks great from the sidewalk but is invisible from the road.	Drive past at 30 mph from both directions. Count street parking + nearest paid lot capacity at peak hours.
Competitor density	Counting only direct competitors and missing adjacent-category overlap (e.g. coffee shop near a bakery).	Map all businesses serving overlapping customer needs within a 5-min walk. Use StreetSpring's competitor view as a starting point.
Lease term	Locking into 7-10 years without break clauses, then needing to relocate after year 2.	Negotiate a relocation or termination clause. Confirm assignment + sublease rights are in writing.

This can be summarized as:

Revenue Capture Score = Projected Market Share × Forecasted Spend on Specific Business

Scores get refreshed against the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data on an ongoing basis. The static rankings here may already be slightly behind; for a current address-level score, use StreetSpring's live tool.

The Best Place to Start a Grocery Store in Chicago

For this business type, the highest-ranked neighborhoods are Rogers Park, Kenwood, and Budlong Woods, while the most challenging neighborhoods would be Pilsen, West Side, and Irving Woods. Remember that a neighborhood average smooths over wide variation — your exact block could significantly outperform. However, market conditions change daily, and it's best to use StreetSpring's live data to check the Survivability Score for a specific address.

Related Articles:

Which Chicago Neighborhoods Are Strongest for Grocery Stores?

Based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, the top neighborhood for a Grocery Store in Chicago is Rogers Park with 69% average survivability, followed by Kenwood and Budlong Woods. 0 of 86 neighborhoods analyzed exceed 70% two-year survival.

The live platform incorporates the most recent foot traffic, competitor, and spending data for your exact address.

Do Lower-Ranked Chicago Neighborhoods Still Work for Grocery Stores?

Yes — neighborhood averages mask significant block-by-block variation. Even in neighborhoods ranked outside the top 10, individual storefronts with strong foot traffic, low direct competition, and favorable lease terms can outperform the area average. For the most current predictions, visit StreetSpring to analyze your specific location in real-time. Always check your specific address in StreetSpring's live platform for the most accurate prediction.

When Does StreetSpring Update Chicago Grocery Store Rankings?

StreetSpring recalculates survivability scores regularly using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. Rankings are updated quarterly; the live tool always reflects the most current predictions for any address in Chicago.

Should Chicago Landlords Lease to Grocery Stores?

In Rogers Park, StreetSpring forecasts a 67.4% – 71.3% average chance for a new Grocery Store to survive more than 2 years, depending on the exact storefront. Check the current Survivability Score for any address instantly.

Landlord Survivability Data for Grocery Store in Chicago

Should you rent your storefront to a Grocery Store? The answer depends heavily on your neighborhood. Rogers Park offers the strongest outlook at 67.4% – 71.3% average survivability, followed by Kenwood at 65.8% – 69.7%, and Budlong Woods at 65.7% – 69.6%. Get a live Survivability Score for your specific storefront at no cost.

StreetSpring delivers address-level predictions, showing how likely hundreds of different businesses are to last at that exact spot.

Top-Survivability Chicago Neighborhoods for Grocery Stores

You can see the best neighborhoods in or around Chicago to open any type of business in our article Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: Chicago.

Technical note: Aggregated survivability rankings for Chicago are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.

View technical data for Chicago

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.

Visual Data

Dumbbell chart comparing best vs worst locations for businesses in chicago — Best vs worst neighborhood per business type — the gap shows how much location choice matters within a city.

Bubble chart of business subtypes in Chicago by survivability score and location density — Every business subtype in Chicago plotted by score vs location count — bubble size shows market depth. Find Grocery Store relative to its peers.

How we measure this: Restaurant build-outs run $200-500/sqft; retail $50-150/sqft; office $30-80. The model adjusts expected runway accordingly.

**Chicago at a glance.** Chicago is the most populous city in the U.S. state of Illinois and in the Midwestern United States. Located on the western shore of Lake Michigan, it is the third-most populous city in the United States, with a population of 2.74 million at the 2020 census. ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago))

**Daytime-worker density across Chicago:** Per US Census LEHD LODES, the median Chicago neighborhood has a **0.74:1 daytime-to-resident ratio** (75th-percentile = 2.07, across **150** tracked neighborhoods) — a primarily-residential commercial-corridor profile. The right neighborhood pick for any subtype depends on whether the business model fits the worker-traffic or resident-traffic side of that distribution.

**Why operating costs matter here:** Chicago's commercial electricity **6.7¢/kWh** (below the 24-metro median), state minimum wage **$15.00/hr** (below), combined sales tax **8.8%** (above), and commercial property tax **2.27%** (above) compound on every dollar of revenue. Composite read: Chicago runs **expensive** on operating overhead vs US metro peers.

**BLS data point:** Grocery Stores have a **50.0% 5-year survival rate** nationally per BLS Business Employment Dynamics, March 2025 release. StreetSpring's location-specific model scores Grocery Stores in Chicago at an average **survivability score of 71%**, reflecting site-level factors like competitive density, demographics, and accessibility that national averages can't capture.

Same business type in other cities:

City Survivability Rankings for Grocery Store

Related:

Beyond the Numbers: Local Context

More questions answered with neighborhood-specific data from our 2026 corpus.

How is the Grocery Stores survivability score for Chicago calculated?

The Chicago survivability score for Grocery Stores (71% average) combines ~100 location factors: competitive density, demographic fit, accessibility, visibility, lease economics, and historical business outcomes. The score is calibrated against 500K+ historical business outcomes and refreshed quarterly.

How healthy is the Chicago economy for new Grocery Stores?

Chicago's ACS-tracked employment rate is approximately 94%, with a metro median household income near $103K. These macro factors feed into the survivability model alongside business-type-specific signals — Grocery Stores in Chicago average 71%.

What 5-year survival rate does the federal government track for Grocery Stores?

Per BLS Business Employment Dynamics (March 2025 release), Grocery Stores have a 50% 5-year survival rate nationally. StreetSpring's Chicago model averages 71% across tracked locations — above the national baseline by 21 percentage points.

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