City Survivability Rankings for Cafe

StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Cafes across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Cafe to succeed.

•16 min read

Quick Summary

  • Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
  • The highest-survivability city for Cafe is Portland: 82.10% average survivability
  • 24 of 24 analyzed US metros score above 70% for Cafe survivability
  • The lowest-ranked city is New York City at 79.99%
  • National average chance of lasting two or more years for Cafe: 81.0%
  • Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 24 US metro areas · Full methodology →

Table of Contents

Summary

According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Portland ranks as the #1 city for opening a Cafe in the United States, with an average 82.10% chance of surviving more than 2 years. Following close behind are San Antonio with 82.01%, and St Louis with 81.89%. The 24-city analysis shows Cafes performing at a 81.0% national average, with strong geographic concentration of top scores in a handful of metros. Still, specific site selection matters: some of the best-performing blocks can be found in cities that might not look ideal on average. Pair these survivability scores with StreetSpring's live tool to get a real-time view before making a final decision.

Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →

Cafes city survivability range chart: Charlotte vs Dallas (2026)

Best-to-worst Cafe survivability within individual metros: Charlotte, Seattle, Los Angeles, San Diego and Dallas. Each box spans the middle of that metro's range; whiskers are its best and worst locations (2026).

All 24 Cities Ranked for Cafes

Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 24 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Cafes:

#MetroMetro areaChance of lasting two or more years
1PortlandPortland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA82.10%
2San AntonioSan Antonio-New Braunfels, TX82.01%
3St Louis81.89%
4CharlotteCharlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC81.62%
5OrlandoOrlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL81.56%
6PhoenixPhoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ81.40%
7Tampa BayTampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL81.34%
8DetroitDetroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI81.31%
9BaltimoreBaltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD81.25%
10San DiegoSan Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA81.23%
11AtlantaAtlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA81.21%
12MinneapolisMinneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI81.07%
13San FranciscoSan Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA81.05%
14SeattleSeattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA80.94%
15Los AngelesLos Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA80.93%
16HoustonHouston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX80.91%
17DenverDenver-Aurora-Centennial, CO80.81%
18ChicagoChicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN80.78%
19MiamiMiami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL80.74%
20Washington DCWashington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV80.63%
21BostonBoston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH80.62%
22PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD80.61%
23DallasDallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX80.44%
24New York CityNew York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ79.99%

1. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

2. San Antonio Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX

  • Best locations: 84.0% to 84.0%
  • Average locations: 80.0% to 82.0%
  • Challenging locations: 69.0% to 78.0%

3. St Louis

  • Best locations: 84.0% to 84.0%
  • Average locations: 80.0% to 82.0%
  • Challenging locations: 69.0% to 78.0%

4. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

5. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

6. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

7. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

  • Best locations: 83.0% to 84.0%
  • Average locations: 80.0% to 82.0%
  • Challenging locations: 68.0% to 77.0%

8. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

9. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

10. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA

  • Best locations: 83.0% to 84.0%
  • Average locations: 80.0% to 82.0%
  • Challenging locations: 69.0% to 78.0%

11. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

12. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

13. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

  • Best locations: 83.0% to 84.0%
  • Average locations: 79.0% to 82.0%
  • Challenging locations: 67.0% to 77.0%

14. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

15. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

  • Best locations: 83.0% to 84.0%
  • Average locations: 79.0% to 82.0%
  • Challenging locations: 68.0% to 77.0%

16. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX

17. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO

18. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN

19. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

20. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

  • Best locations: 83.0% to 84.0%
  • Average locations: 79.0% to 81.0%
  • Challenging locations: 69.0% to 77.0%

21. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

22. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

23. Dallas Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

24. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ

  • Best locations: 83.0% to 84.0%
  • Average locations: 79.0% to 81.0%
  • Challenging locations: 68.0% to 76.0%

Key Insights

Cities cluster tightly: The difference between the #1 city (Portland at 82.10%) and the #24 city (New York City at 79.99%) is 2.11 percentage points. Cafes score within 0.1 points across the top two metros. Picking the right city is not the lever here.

Strong performers: 24 cities show Survivability Scores above 80%, indicating highly favorable conditions for Cafes.

National average: Across all 24 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Cafe is 81.0%.

What Makes These Cities Stand Out?

The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Cafes:

  • Strong survivability signals: Portland leads with a 82% average chance of lasting two or more years for Cafes: significantly above the national average for this business category.
  • Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Cafes, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
  • Low market saturation: Top cities for Cafes have fewer direct competitors per square mile than lower-ranked metros, leaving meaningful whitespace for well-positioned new entrants.
  • Geographic distribution: The top cities span multiple U.S. regions, giving franchise operators or multi-location owners diverse market options without concentrating risk.

Our survivability predictions are built on one of the largest commercial real estate datasets available, covering 24 major metros. The training dataset includes millions of transactions and business lifecycle events. Every forecast is powered by StreetSpring's private data models.

Best Neighborhoods Across the Spectrum

Where you open matters more than which city ranks highest. The strongest neighborhoods for Cafes can be found across the entire national distribution:

Portland: ranked #1 nationally: the strongest market for Cafes

  • Hough (71% survivability)
  • Kenton (70% survivability)
  • Irvington (65% survivability)
  • Gresham (64% survivability)
  • Eliot (64% survivability)

See full neighborhood rankings for Portland →

San Francisco: ranked #13 of 24: a middle-of-the-pack national market

  • Hayes-Valley (79% survivability)
  • Tenderloin (78% survivability)
  • Cow-Hollow (77% survivability)
  • Nob-Hill (77% survivability)
  • Russian-Hill (77% survivability)

See full neighborhood rankings for San Francisco →

New York City: ranked #24 of 24: among the lower-ranked national markets

  • Norwood (80% survivability)
  • Bedford-Park (79% survivability)
  • Rockaway-Park (79% survivability)
  • Van-Nest (79% survivability)
  • Parkchester (78% survivability)

See full neighborhood rankings for New York City →

A Cafe can succeed in a city ranked #1 or #24: what matters is finding the right neighborhood within that market.

City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:

National guides:

How current is this ranking?

Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates: particularly for Cafes, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.

Can a Cafe succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?

Yes, our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Cafes in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Cafes in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align, even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.

What tools can help me choose the right city for a Cafe?

StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Cafes across all 24 metros we track. For this category specifically, the tool surfaces competition density, consumer spending index for Cafes, and commercial vacancy rates: the factors that most consistently predict whether a Cafe will still be operating after two years. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.

Try the Survivability Score tool →

Which US city has the best survivability for Cafes?

Portland ranks as the #1 city in the US for Cafes survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average 82% chance of lasting two or more years. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Portland, a Cafe has approximately a 82% chance of still operating after two years, above the national average for this category. San Antonio ranks second, followed by St Louis. The full ranking reflects data across 24 major US metro areas: see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.

Last reviewed: September 2026 by Robert Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring

Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.

View national technical data

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.

Methodology: City rankings aggregate neighborhood-level Survivability Scores (max, average, and min) across all analyzed neighborhoods in each metro area. Rankings reflect average conditions but do not account for variation within cities. Coverage includes 24 major US metropolitan areas: Portland, San Antonio, St Louis, Charlotte, Orlando, Phoenix, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Baltimore, San Diego, Atlanta, Minneapolis, San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles, Houston, Denver, Chicago, Miami, Washington DC, Boston, Philadelphia, Dallas, New York City. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.