Survivability Rankings for Cafe in San Francisco
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the best and worst neighborhoods in San Francisco to open a Cafe, from Crystyl Ranch (81% survival) to Dana Estates (...
By Robert Koons | Last reviewed: September 2026 | Methodology
Quick Summary
- Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
- #1 Neighborhood: Crystyl Ranch: 81% average survivability for Cafe
- Neighborhoods at or above 70%: 106 of 108 analyzed
- City-wide average: 78% for Cafes
- Most challenging area: Dana Estates at 72%
- Revenue advantage (top vs. avg location): ~9.8% more expected revenue in Crystyl Ranch
- Data freshness: 2026 data · Full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- 10 Best Neighborhoods
- Where Would a Cafe Make the Most Money?
- What Should I Consider?
- Where Should I Start?
- FAQ: Best Neighborhoods
- FAQ: Can a Cafe Succeed in Lower-Ranked Areas?
- FAQ: How Often Are Rankings Updated?
- FAQ: Is a Cafe a Good Tenant?
- Landlord Survivability Data
- Best Neighborhoods for Any Business
Summary
Crystyl Ranch leads San Francisco's 2026 survivability rankings for Cafe operators with 81% average chance of surviving more than 2 years, with the best locations offering 84% and the most challenging locations in Crystyl Ranch at 75%. The worst neighborhoods include Dana Estates with 72% average chance. These rankings are based on the latest available data; check StreetSpring for real-time updates.
What Are the 10 Best Neighborhoods in and Around San Francisco to Open a Cafe?
Crystyl Ranch ranks #1 of 108 neighborhoods analyzed in and around San Francisco for Cafe survivability, with a 81% chance of lasting two or more years as of 2026. The top 10 neighborhoods are:
| Rank | Neighborhood | At a good address | Average Locations | Best Locations | Challenging Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crystyl Ranch | 84.0% | 79.0% to 83.0% | 83.0% to 84.0% | 75.0% to 77.0% |
| 2 | Pine Hollow | 83.6% | 79.0% to 83.0% | 82.0% to 84.0% | 75.0% to 76.0% |
| 3 | Treasure Island | 83.1% | 78.0% to 83.0% | 82.0% to 84.0% | 78.0% to 80.0% |
| 4 | Silverwood | 82.7% | 79.0% to 83.0% | 82.0% to 84.0% | 76.0% to 78.0% |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 82.7% | 77.0% to 82.0% | 81.0% to 83.0% | 76.0% to 78.0% |
| 6 | Clayton Valley | 82.2% | 78.0% to 82.0% | 81.0% to 83.0% | 76.0% to 78.0% |
| 7 | Clayton Valley Highlands | 81.8% | 77.0% to 82.0% | 81.0% to 83.0% | 76.0% to 78.0% |
| 8 | Sunset/Parkside | 81.3% | 77.0% to 81.0% | 80.0% to 82.0% | 75.0% to 76.0% |
| 9 | Hayward Highland | 81.3% | 76.0% to 81.0% | 82.0% to 84.0% | 73.0% to 75.0% |
| 10 | Southgate | 80.9% | 77.0% to 82.0% | 80.0% to 82.0% | 75.0% to 76.0% |
StreetSpring's Survivability Scores are updated regularly, so the most accurate prediction for your exact storefront is always available in the live tool. Real-time data from StreetSpring accounts for recent openings, closures, and seasonal shifts that static rankings cannot.
Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each neighborhood. See our full methodology →
Try StreetSpring to see if this location is still the best and see if there are locations to rent in this area right now.
Where in or Around San Francisco Would a Cafe Make the Most Money?
In Crystyl Ranch, the best possible location offers the opportunity of making ~9.8% more than the average location in or around San Francisco.
On the other hand, in Dana Estates, the worst possible location could result in making ~16.5% less than the average location in the city.
Our data consistently shows that location accounts for more variance in outcomes than any other single factor. Opening a Cafe in San Francisco requires careful location choice. Across 108 neighborhoods analyzed, the overall average survival chance for a new Cafe is 78% for lasting more than 2 years, due to a combination of many factors across competition, consumer spending, and location dynamics. Two businesses on the same block can have very different survivability scores depending on their category.
What Should I Consider When Opening a Cafe in or Around San Francisco?
When selecting a location for a Cafe in or around San Francisco, it is crucial to select a location with a very high Survivability Score. Revenue Capture Score is the single best indicator of whether a business will thrive at a location. StreetSpring computes this by projecting the business's market share, which is based on the quality and quantity of primary, secondary, and tertiary competitors. We incorporate data from thousands of neighborhoods and hundreds of thousands of individual businesses. Some of the best-performing locations are surrounded by complementary competitors that drive foot traffic. These results are powered by exclusive algorithms trained on one of the largest commercial real estate datasets in the U.S. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.
This can be summarized as:
Revenue Capture Score = Projected Market Share × Forecasted Spend on Specific Business
Related: Survivability Score: How We Calculate It & Why It Matters
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. Real-time data from StreetSpring accounts for recent openings, closures, and seasonal shifts that static rankings cannot.
Where in or Around San Francisco Should I Start a Cafe?
Our data ranks the top-performing neighborhoods as Crystyl Ranch, Pine Hollow, and Treasure Island, while the most challenging neighborhoods would be Dana Estates, Canterbury Village, and Northgate. A low-ranking neighborhood can still contain high-potential storefronts: the address matters most. Real-time data from StreetSpring accounts for recent openings, closures, and seasonal shifts that static rankings cannot.
Related Articles:
- Business Survivability Rankings: San Francisco
- Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: San Francisco
- National City Survivability: Cafe
- National Neighborhood Survivability: Cafe
What Are the Best Neighborhoods in San Francisco to Open a Cafe?
Based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, the top neighborhood for a Cafe in San Francisco is Crystyl Ranch with 81% average survivability, followed by Pine Hollow and Treasure Island. 106 of 108 neighborhoods analyzed exceed 70% two-year survival.
Market dynamics shift frequently; validate these insights with real-time data from StreetSpring.
Can a Cafe Succeed in Lower-Ranked Neighborhoods in San Francisco?
Yes, neighborhood averages mask significant block-by-block variation. Even in neighborhoods ranked outside the top 10, individual storefronts with strong foot traffic, low direct competition, and favorable lease terms can outperform the area average. Neighborhood averages mask significant block-by-block variation: always check your specific address. Always check your specific address in StreetSpring's live platform for the most accurate prediction.
How Often Are Cafe Rankings in San Francisco Updated?
StreetSpring recalculates survivability scores regularly using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. Rankings are updated quarterly; the live tool always reflects the most current predictions for any address in San Francisco.
Is a Cafe a Good Tenant for San Francisco Landlords?
In Crystyl Ranch, StreetSpring forecasts a 79.0% to 83.0% average chance for a new Cafe to survive more than 2 years, depending on the exact storefront. Check the current Survivability Score for any address instantly.
Landlord Survivability Data for Cafe in San Francisco
Should you rent your storefront to a Cafe? The answer depends heavily on your neighborhood. Crystyl Ranch offers the strongest outlook at 79.0% to 83.0% average survivability, followed by Pine Hollow at 79.0% to 83.0%, and Treasure Island at 78.0% to 83.0%. Our tool shows the survivability outlook for any business type at your exact address, updated weekly.
StreetSpring delivers address-level predictions, showing how likely hundreds of different businesses are to last at that exact spot.
Related: How Landlord Representatives Can Reduce Vacancy & Increase Tenant Longevity
What Are the Best Neighborhoods in or Around San Francisco for My Business Overall?
You can see the best neighborhoods in or around San Francisco to open any type of business in our article Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: San Francisco.
Related Resources
- Business Survivability Rankings: San Francisco: See how Cafe compares to all other business types in San Francisco
- Best Cities to Open a Cafe in the US: National city-level survivability rankings for Cafe
- Business Survivability in Crystyl Ranch, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #1 neighborhood
- Business Survivability in Pine Hollow, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #2 neighborhood
- Business Survivability in Treasure Island, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #3 neighborhood
Technical note: Aggregated survivability rankings for San Francisco are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
View technical data for San Francisco
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.