City Survivability Rankings for Bar
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Bars across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Bar to succeed.
Quick Summary
- The highest-survivability city for Bar is Tampa Bay — 83% average survivability
- 24 of 24 analyzed US metros score above 70% for Bar survivability
- The lowest-ranked city is Dallas at 77%
- National average survivability score for Bar: 80.5%
- Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 24 US metro areas · Full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- Top Cities for Bars
- Key Insights
- What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
- Best Neighborhoods Across the Spectrum
- Related Resources
- How current is this ranking?
- Can a Bar succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?
- What tools can help me choose the right city for a Bar?
- Which US city has the best survivability for Bars?
Summary
According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Tampa Bay ranks as the #1 city for opening a Bar in the United States, with an average 83% chance of surviving more than 2 years. Following close behind are Portland with 83%, and Phoenix with 83%. Bars sit at a national average of 80.5% survivability across our 24-city analysis, with Tampa Bay leading the field by a meaningful margin. City-wide statistics are directional, not definitive; the best decision comes from analyzing your specific storefront. The best way to use these rankings is as a starting point — layer in your own market research and local knowledge before committing.
Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →
Bar city survivability rankings — Tampa Bay leads among 24 US metros at 83% in 2026
Ranked: 24 Cities by Bar Survivability
Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 24 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Bars:
1. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- Best locations: 89.2% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 78.8% – 84.6%
- Challenging locations: 49.0% – 72.7%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in Tampa Bay →
Where the top 5 cluster, and the surprising outliers
2. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
- Best locations: 88.7% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 78.4% – 84.4%
- Challenging locations: 46.0% – 71.7%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in Portland →
3. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Best locations: 88.6% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 78.5% – 84.1%
- Challenging locations: 49.0% – 72.5%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in Phoenix →
4. San Antonio Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
- Best locations: 88.4% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 78.3% – 83.8%
- Challenging locations: 50.0% – 72.5%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in San Antonio →
5. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
- Best locations: 88.3% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 79.0% – 83.7%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 74.5%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in Miami →
6. St Louis
- Best locations: 87.8% – 95.0%
- Average locations: 78.0% – 83.6%
- Challenging locations: 49.0% – 72.1%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in St Louis →
7. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
- Best locations: 88.2% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 77.3% – 83.5%
- Challenging locations: 45.0% – 70.7%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in Detroit →
8. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
- Best locations: 87.7% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 77.1% – 82.7%
- Challenging locations: 50.0% – 71.6%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in Orlando →
9. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
- Best locations: 87.6% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 77.2% – 82.6%
- Challenging locations: 51.0% – 71.8%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in Baltimore →
10. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
- Best locations: 87.1% – 95.0%
- Average locations: 77.0% – 82.4%
- Challenging locations: 50.0% – 71.4%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in San Diego →
11. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
- Best locations: 87.1% – 95.0%
- Average locations: 76.5% – 82.3%
- Challenging locations: 47.0% – 70.5%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in Charlotte →
12. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
- Best locations: 88.0% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 76.4% – 82.5%
- Challenging locations: 46.0% – 70.2%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in New York City →
Where mid-ranked cities still beat top-ranked spots locally
13. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
- Best locations: 87.5% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 75.8% – 82.4%
- Challenging locations: 41.0% – 68.7%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in Los Angeles →
14. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
- Best locations: 87.5% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 76.1% – 82.4%
- Challenging locations: 44.0% – 69.5%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in Philadelphia →
15. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
- Best locations: 87.8% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 76.6% – 82.2%
- Challenging locations: 50.0% – 71.1%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in Houston →
16. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN
- Best locations: 87.7% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 76.3% – 82.2%
- Challenging locations: 48.0% – 70.5%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in Chicago →
17. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
- Best locations: 86.7% – 95.0%
- Average locations: 75.9% – 81.7%
- Challenging locations: 47.0% – 70.0%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in San Francisco →
18. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
- Best locations: 87.0% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 75.7% – 81.6%
- Challenging locations: 47.0% – 69.8%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in Boston →
19. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
- Best locations: 87.4% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 75.7% – 81.7%
- Challenging locations: 47.0% – 69.8%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in Washington DC →
20. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
- Best locations: 86.8% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 75.1% – 81.4%
- Challenging locations: 44.0% – 68.8%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in Atlanta →
21. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
- Best locations: 86.8% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 75.5% – 81.3%
- Challenging locations: 47.0% – 69.6%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in Minneapolis →
22. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO
- Best locations: 87.2% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 76.0% – 81.4%
- Challenging locations: 52.0% – 71.1%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in Denver →
23. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
- Best locations: 86.5% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 75.1% – 80.7%
- Challenging locations: 49.0% – 69.8%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in Seattle →
24. Dallas Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Best locations: 83.6% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 73.9% – 78.5%
- Challenging locations: 54.0% – 69.9%
- Explore Bar neighborhoods in Dallas →
Top Findings From the City Rankings
| Signal | Where strong-survivability cities outperform | What drags weaker cities down |
|---|---|---|
| Daytime vs residential population mix | Cities with strong daytime employment density near the storefront catchment — CBD-adjacent mixed-use corridors. | Bedroom-community metros where daytime population evaporates by 9am and consumption shifts to 6pm dinner-only windows. |
| Climate-driven seasonality | Cities where the subtype's peak season aligns with the local climate calendar (e.g., year-round outdoor dining in mild markets). | Cities with extreme seasonality that compresses revenue into 4–6 month windows. |
| Anchor-tenant density | Cities with high concentration of universities, hospitals, transit hubs within a 1-mile radius of typical storefronts. | Cities where anchor institutions are isolated in suburbs or single-purpose campuses with no street-level spillover. |
Wide variation between cities: The difference between the #1 city (Tampa Bay at 82.9%) and the #24 city (Dallas at 76.6%) is 6.2 percentage points. The 0.1-point lead Tampa Bay holds over Portland reflects real structural differences in how well each metro supports Bars — not just random variation.
Where this ranking breaks it
Strong performers: 16 cities show Survivability Scores above 80%, indicating highly favorable conditions for Bars.
National average: Across all 24 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Bar is 80.5%.
The Common Threads in Top Bar Cities
The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Bars:
- Strong survivability signals: Tampa Bay leads with a 83% average survivability score for Bars — significantly above the national average for this business category.
- Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Bars, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
- Geographic distribution: The top cities span multiple U.S. regions, giving franchise operators or multi-location owners diverse market options without concentrating risk.
- Regulatory environment: Top-ranked cities tend to have streamlined commercial permitting and lower business tax burdens relative to their metro size, reducing friction for new operators.
The data behind these rankings comes from our proprietary AI models, trained on millions of real-world business outcomes across the U.S. The training dataset includes millions of transactions and business lifecycle events. Our forecasting system combines proprietary data with machine learning models unavailable anywhere else.
Standout Neighborhoods From Top to Bottom
City-level averages mask significant within-city variation. Below are some of the strongest neighborhoods for Bar at different points in the rankings:
Tampa Bay — ranked #1 nationally — the strongest market for Bars
- Downtown (87% survivability)
- Channel-District (86% survivability)
- Harbour-Island (86% survivability)
- St-Petersburg (85% survivability)
- Terrace-Park (84% survivability)
See full neighborhood rankings for Tampa Bay →
Los Angeles — ranked #13 of 24 — a middle-of-the-pack national market
- Peninsula (92% survivability)
- San-Pedro (86% survivability)
- Sylmar (86% survivability)
- Island-Grissom (86% survivability)
- Agoura-Hills (86% survivability)
See full neighborhood rankings for Los Angeles →
Dallas — ranked #24 of 24 — among the lower-ranked national markets
- Cottonwood (85% survivability)
- Near-East (85% survivability)
- Woodhaven (85% survivability)
- Butler (84% survivability)
- Oakhurst (84% survivability)
See full neighborhood rankings for Dallas →
Don't let a city's national rank deter exploration: every city has neighborhoods that buck the city-wide average.
Visual Data
Related Resources
City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:
- Survivability Rankings for Bar in Tampa Bay
- Business Survivability Rankings: Tampa Bay
- Survivability Rankings for Bar in Portland
- Business Survivability Rankings: Portland
- Survivability Rankings for Bar in Phoenix
- Business Survivability Rankings: Phoenix
- Survivability Rankings for Bar in San Antonio
- Business Survivability Rankings: San Antonio
- Survivability Rankings for Bar in Miami
- Business Survivability Rankings: Miami
National guides:
- National Neighborhood Survivability Rankings for Bars
- Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: Tampa Bay
When was this ranking last refreshed?
Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates — particularly for Bars, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.
Do Bars only work in top-10 cities?
Yes — our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Bars in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Bars in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align — even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.
Which resources help pick the right metro for a Bar?
StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Bars across all 24 metros we track. For this category specifically, the tool surfaces competition density, consumer spending index for Bars, and commercial vacancy rates — the factors that most consistently predict whether a Bar will still be operating after two years. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.
Try the Survivability Score tool →
What is the #1 city for Bars?
Tampa Bay ranks as the #1 city in the US for Bars survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average score of 83%. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Tampa Bay, a Bar has approximately a 83% chance of still operating after two years — above the national average for this category. Portland ranks second, followed by Phoenix. The full ranking reflects data across 24 major US metro areas — see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.
Last reviewed: May 12, 2026 by Bobby Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring
Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and foot traffic data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.
Methodology: City rankings aggregate neighborhood-level Survivability Scores (max, average, and min) across all analyzed neighborhoods in each metro area. Rankings reflect average conditions but do not account for variation within cities. Coverage includes 24 major US metropolitan areas: Tampa Bay, Portland, Phoenix, San Antonio, Miami, St Louis, Detroit, Orlando, Baltimore, San Diego, Charlotte, New York City, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Houston, Chicago, San Francisco, Boston, Washington DC, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Denver, Seattle, Dallas.