City Survivability Rankings for Bar
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Bars across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Bar to succeed.
Quick Summary
- Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
- The highest-survivability city for Bar is Tampa Bay: 79.44% average survivability
- 24 of 24 analyzed US metros score above 70% for Bar survivability
- The lowest-ranked city is Dallas at 76.64%
- National average chance of lasting two or more years for Bar: 78.0%
- Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 24 US metro areas · Full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- Top Cities for Bars
- Key Insights
- What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
- Best Neighborhoods Across the Spectrum
- Related Resources
- How current is this ranking?
- Can a Bar succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?
- What tools can help me choose the right city for a Bar?
- Which US city has the best survivability for Bars?
Summary
According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Tampa Bay ranks as the #1 city for opening a Bar in the United States, with an average 79.44% chance of surviving more than 2 years. Following close behind are Portland with 79.40%, and Phoenix with 79.29%. Across 24 metros, Bars average 78.0% survivability, with 16 cities offering conditions conducive to long-term success in this category. Our data shows that strong individual locations exist in every city we analyze, regardless of the city's overall ranking. Use this data to narrow your shortlist, then visit each top city in person to assess foot traffic and competitive density.
Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →
Best-to-worst Bar survivability within individual metros: New York City, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, San Francisco and Dallas. Each box spans the middle of that metro's range; whiskers are its best and worst locations (2026).
All 24 Cities Ranked for Bars
Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 24 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Bars:
| # | Metro | Metro area | Chance of lasting two or more years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | 79.44% |
| 2 | Portland | Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA | 79.40% |
| 3 | Phoenix | Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ | 79.29% |
| 4 | San Antonio | San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | 79.12% |
| 5 | Miami | Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL | 79.06% |
| 6 | St Louis | 79.05% | |
| 7 | Detroit | Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI | 78.94% |
| 8 | Orlando | Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 78.53% |
| 9 | Baltimore | Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD | 78.49% |
| 10 | San Diego | San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA | 78.44% |
| 11 | New York City | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ | 78.40% |
| 12 | Charlotte | Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | 78.39% |
| 13 | Los Angeles | Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA | 78.38% |
| 14 | Philadelphia | Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD | 78.37% |
| 15 | Houston | Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX | 78.24% |
| 16 | Chicago | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN | 78.23% |
| 17 | San Francisco | San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA | 78.10% |
| 18 | Washington DC | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | 77.96% |
| 19 | Boston | Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH | 77.95% |
| 20 | Atlanta | Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA | 77.86% |
| 21 | Minneapolis | Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | 77.85% |
| 22 | Denver | Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO | 77.80% |
| 23 | Seattle | Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | 77.54% |
| 24 | Dallas | Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | 76.64% |
1. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- Best locations: 82.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 78.0% to 80.0%
- Challenging locations: 64.0% to 75.0%
2. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
- Best locations: 82.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 77.0% to 80.0%
- Challenging locations: 63.0% to 74.0%
3. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Best locations: 82.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 77.0% to 80.0%
- Challenging locations: 64.0% to 75.0%
4. San Antonio Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
- Best locations: 82.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 77.0% to 80.0%
- Challenging locations: 65.0% to 75.0%
5. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
- Best locations: 82.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 78.0% to 80.0%
- Challenging locations: 68.0% to 76.0%
6. St Louis
- Best locations: 82.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 77.0% to 80.0%
- Challenging locations: 64.0% to 75.0%
7. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
- Best locations: 82.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 77.0% to 80.0%
- Challenging locations: 62.0% to 74.0%
8. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
- Best locations: 82.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 77.0% to 79.0%
- Challenging locations: 65.0% to 74.0%
9. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
- Best locations: 82.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 77.0% to 79.0%
- Challenging locations: 65.0% to 74.0%
10. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
- Best locations: 81.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 77.0% to 79.0%
- Challenging locations: 65.0% to 74.0%
11. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
- Best locations: 82.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 77.0% to 79.0%
- Challenging locations: 63.0% to 74.0%
12. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
- Best locations: 81.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 77.0% to 79.0%
- Challenging locations: 63.0% to 74.0%
13. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
- Best locations: 82.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 76.0% to 79.0%
- Challenging locations: 61.0% to 73.0%
14. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
- Best locations: 82.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 76.0% to 79.0%
- Challenging locations: 62.0% to 73.0%
15. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
- Best locations: 82.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 77.0% to 79.0%
- Challenging locations: 65.0% to 74.0%
16. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN
- Best locations: 82.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 76.0% to 79.0%
- Challenging locations: 64.0% to 74.0%
17. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
- Best locations: 81.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 76.0% to 79.0%
- Challenging locations: 63.0% to 74.0%
18. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
- Best locations: 81.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 76.0% to 79.0%
- Challenging locations: 63.0% to 74.0%
19. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
- Best locations: 81.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 76.0% to 79.0%
- Challenging locations: 63.0% to 74.0%
20. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
- Best locations: 81.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 76.0% to 79.0%
- Challenging locations: 62.0% to 73.0%
21. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
- Best locations: 81.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 76.0% to 79.0%
- Challenging locations: 63.0% to 73.0%
22. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO
- Best locations: 81.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 76.0% to 79.0%
- Challenging locations: 66.0% to 74.0%
23. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
- Best locations: 81.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 76.0% to 78.0%
- Challenging locations: 64.0% to 74.0%
24. Dallas Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Best locations: 80.0% to 84.0%
- Average locations: 75.0% to 77.0%
- Challenging locations: 66.0% to 74.0%
Key Insights
Cities cluster tightly: The difference between the #1 city (Tampa Bay at 79.44%) and the #24 city (Dallas at 76.64%) is 2.80 percentage points. Metro rankings for Bars are tightly packed, under a point between first and second. Use them to shortlist, then compare addresses.
Strong performers: 16 cities show Survivability Scores above 80%, indicating highly favorable conditions for Bars.
National average: Across all 24 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Bar is 78.0%.
What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Bars:
- Strong survivability signals: Tampa Bay leads with a 79% average chance of lasting two or more years for Bars: significantly above the national average for this business category.
- Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Bars, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
- Geographic distribution: The top cities span multiple U.S. regions, giving franchise operators or multi-location owners diverse market options without concentrating risk.
- Regulatory environment: Top-ranked cities tend to have streamlined commercial permitting and lower business tax burdens relative to their metro size, reducing friction for new operators.
StreetSpring analyzes millions of data points with AI to forecast business survivability across U.S. neighborhoods. StreetSpring measures competition through a 30-factor framework. Every forecast is powered by StreetSpring's private data models.
Best Neighborhoods Across the Spectrum
City-level averages mask significant within-city variation. Below are some of the strongest neighborhoods for Bar at different points in the rankings:
Tampa Bay: ranked #1 nationally: the strongest market for Bars
- Downtown (87% survivability)
- Channel-District (86% survivability)
- Harbour-Island (86% survivability)
- St-Petersburg (85% survivability)
- Terrace-Park (84% survivability)
See full neighborhood rankings for Tampa Bay →
Los Angeles: ranked #13 of 24: a middle-of-the-pack national market
- Peninsula (92% survivability)
- San-Pedro (86% survivability)
- Sylmar (86% survivability)
- Island-Grissom (86% survivability)
- Agoura-Hills (86% survivability)
See full neighborhood rankings for Los Angeles →
Dallas: ranked #24 of 24: among the lower-ranked national markets
- Cottonwood (85% survivability)
- Near-East (85% survivability)
- Woodhaven (85% survivability)
- Butler (84% survivability)
- Oakhurst (84% survivability)
See full neighborhood rankings for Dallas →
Don't let a city's national rank deter exploration: every city has neighborhoods that buck the city-wide average.
Related Resources
City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:
- Business Survivability Rankings: Portland
- Business Survivability Rankings: Phoenix
- Business Survivability Rankings: Miami
National guides:
How current is this ranking?
Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates: particularly for Bars, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.
Can a Bar succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?
Yes, our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Bars in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Bars in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align, even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.
What tools can help me choose the right city for a Bar?
StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Bars across all 24 metros we track. For this category specifically, the tool surfaces competition density, consumer spending index for Bars, and commercial vacancy rates: the factors that most consistently predict whether a Bar will still be operating after two years. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.
Try the Survivability Score tool →
Which US city has the best survivability for Bars?
Tampa Bay ranks as the #1 city in the US for Bars survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average 79% chance of lasting two or more years. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Tampa Bay, a Bar has approximately a 79% chance of still operating after two years, above the national average for this category. Portland ranks second, followed by Phoenix. The full ranking reflects data across 24 major US metro areas: see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.
Last reviewed: September 2026 by Robert Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring
Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.
Methodology: City rankings aggregate neighborhood-level Survivability Scores (max, average, and min) across all analyzed neighborhoods in each metro area. Rankings reflect average conditions but do not account for variation within cities. Coverage includes 24 major US metropolitan areas: Tampa Bay, Portland, Phoenix, San Antonio, Miami, St Louis, Detroit, Orlando, Baltimore, San Diego, New York City, Charlotte, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Houston, Chicago, San Francisco, Washington DC, Boston, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Denver, Seattle, Dallas. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.