Business Survivability Rankings: Phoenix
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks business survivability in Phoenix by survivability score. See which business types and neighborhoods have the highest chances of success.
Quick Summary
- Best business: Ukrainian Restaurant in Ocotillo (>97% survival rate)
- 330 business-location combinations exceed 90% survival rates in Phoenix
- City average: 76% chance of lasting 2+ years
- Rankings updated quarterly with latest market data
- Detailed methodology
Last reviewed: April 2026 by Bobby Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring
Table of Contents
- Summary
- What Are My Chances of Success?
- Business Survivability Rankings
- Understanding Survivability Ranges
- Most Important Factors
- Key Takeaways
- Related Resources
Summary
The 2026 survivability data for Phoenix tells a clear story: 330 business-location combinations exceed a 90% two-year survival rate, led by Ukrainian Restaurant in Ocotillo at >97%. Where you open matters more than anything else.
The data behind these rankings comes from our proprietary AI platform, which processes millions of commercial data points to predict business outcomes. The platform analyzes competition, mobility, spending, and demographic data across 24 metros to produce these rankings.
What's more, see how we validate these predictions.
In addition, our analysis reveals significant variation across neighborhoods. The best locations offer >97% survival probability, while less optimal areas show considerably lower rates.
What Are My Chances of Success Opening a Business in Phoenix?
A Phoenix business has a 76% average chance of lasting more than 2 years based on our most recent quarterly update.
Yet, your neighborhood and block choice is the single biggest survival factor. No other single metric has as strong a correlation with business survival as Revenue Capture Score. This metric estimates how effectively a business at a specific address can convert local foot traffic and spending into actual revenue.
see the complete analysis approach.
What New Businesses Would Be the Most Successful in Phoenix?
The chart below displays the distribution of business outcomes across Phoenix by survivability score bracket:
Phoenix: Ukrainian Restaurant ranks #1 in survivability at >97% — 2026 StreetSpring analysis
The top 10 business opportunities in Phoenix are:
| Rank | Business Type | Neighborhood | Best Locations | Average Locations | Challenging Locations | Location Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ukrainian Restaurant | Ocotillo | 96.0% – 97.0% | 85.0% – 89.3% | 75.8% – 79.2% | ~12% |
| 2 | Italian Restaurant | Ocotillo | 96.3% – 97.0% | 84.7% – 87.4% | 70.2% – 74.0% | ~14% |
| 3 | Kosher Restaurant | Ocotillo | 95.2% – 97.0% | 85.1% – 89.2% | 74.6% – 77.9% | ~11% |
| 4 | American Restaurant | Pepperwood | 92.9% – 96.9% | 81.6% – 84.8% | 71.3% – 75.2% | ~14% |
| 5 | Diner | Pepperwood | 92.6% – 96.0% | 84.0% – 88.0% | 75.5% – 79.1% | ~11% |
| 6 | Indian Restaurant | Alhambra | 92.2% – 95.4% | 80.7% – 84.9% | 70.8% – 73.7% | ~14% |
| 7 | Ukrainian Restaurant | Alhambra | 92.0% – 95.4% | 81.0% – 85.3% | 69.8% – 73.2% | ~13% |
| 8 | Italian Restaurant | Alhambra | 92.3% – 95.1% | 81.5% – 84.2% | 68.2% – 72.0% | ~14% |
| 9 | Portuguese Restaurant | Pepperwood | 92.4% – 95.8% | 83.8% – 87.4% | 74.3% – 77.7% | ~9% |
| 10 | Pet Grooming Shop | Escalante | 89.6% – 94.7% | 84.5% – 88.6% | 78.3% – 82.9% | ~7% |
A single street can contain both excellent and poor locations for the same business type, which is why block-level data matters more than neighborhood averages. Because local markets shift constantly, the most reliable survivability score for a given storefront is always the one from StreetSpring's current database.
Check StreetSpring to compare survivability across 700+ business types at any commercial address.
Understanding Survivability Ranges
Individual outcomes differ from these averages because each storefront has unique characteristics, such as pedestrian flow patterns, lease flexibility and build-out costs, the demographic profile of the immediate trade area, and the timing of entry relative to seasonal demand cycles.
The ranges shown reflect the upper bound (optimal conditions within the location category), the lower bound (typical challenges in that market), and the width of the range, which represents local market volatility.
One illustration of this: an Ukrainian Restaurant showing 85.0% – 89.3% at average locations means most businesses in this category fall within this range. A best-in-class location (>97% survival) offers roughly 12% more expected business longevity than an average location (87%), because a higher survival probability translates directly into more operating time to generate revenue. Conversely, a challenging location (77%) represents 12% less expected longevity than the average — a meaningful risk differential that should factor into lease negotiations and capital planning. How you execute, when you open, and the exact characteristics of your storefront all influence where you fall within the range. Tight ranges mean more predictable outcomes; wide ranges mean higher variance.
What Are the Most Important Factors for Businesses in Phoenix?
Revenue Capture Score
When we rank the predictive power of each variable, Revenue Capture Score leads by a significant margin across every business category. Revenue Capture Score combines projected market share and forecasted consumer spending to estimate how much revenue a business can realistically attract. A concrete example: an Ukrainian Restaurant in a high-revenue-capture area might survive even with moderate competition, while the same business in a low-capture area could struggle despite less competition.
Competition Quality and Saturation
Clusters of similar businesses often form naturally around areas with strong consumer demand, and being part of that cluster can be advantageous. Regardless, too many operators chasing the same customers leads to margin compression that makes survival increasingly unlikely.
Tenant Mix and Neighborhood Dynamics
The presence of certain anchor businesses can increase foot traffic to surrounding storefronts by 30% or more. Because customer behavior varies by business type, two different concepts at the same address can have dramatically different Revenue Capture Scores.
Hyperlocal Variation
Even addresses on opposite sides of the same intersection may have materially different survivability profiles. StreetSpring provides highly detailed forecasts — revealing how long hundreds of business types are likely to last at a specific address.
What Is the #1 Business to Start in Phoenix?
Ukrainian Restaurant in Ocotillo with >97% survivability based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis of 1,674 business and neighborhood combinations.
How Accurate Is StreetSpring's Survival Prediction?
With 100+ data factors and a plus or minus 3% margin of error, predictions land within the 95–99% accuracy range depending on business type and location. The model draws on competition, spending, mobility, and historical outcome data. See our full methodology at streetspring.com/resources/tutorial/methodology. Review our methodology and data sources.
What Makes Phoenix Good for New Businesses?
Phoenix offers 330 business-location combinations with 90% or higher survival rates as measured by the latest available data. Across the U.S., real estate professionals and business owners rely on StreetSpring's AI predictions to understand where a new venture is most likely to thrive, before signing a lease. Our models are built using machine learning trained on millions of commercial real estate data points.
How Often Are These Rankings Updated?
Rankings for Phoenix are updated quarterly with the latest business opening and closure data and market conditions. Last updated: 2026-Q1. The next scheduled update for Phoenix will incorporate Q2 2026 data.
Can I Get Predictions for a Specific Address in Phoenix?
Yes. Visit StreetSpring.com to analyze any storefront address in Phoenix with address-specific survivability predictions for over 700 business types.
What Factors Determine Business Survivability in Phoenix?
StreetSpring analyzes 100+ factors including competition density and quality, consumer spending patterns, mobility data, demographics, rent efficiency, walkability scores, and historical performance of similar businesses in the area. These predictions are generated by our own AI models, trained on proprietary commercial real estate data that we collect and maintain.
Are These Predictions Guaranteed?
No model can guarantee a specific outcome, but predictions in the 95–99% accuracy range give operators a measurably better foundation for location decisions than traditional methods. Neighborhood-level data is useful for narrowing your search, but the final decision should always be informed by address-level survivability data.
How Do Landlords Identify the Best Tenant for Their Property?
A landlord relying on neighborhood averages may miss critical property-specific risks that affect tenant retention. With address-level scores, landlords can compare potential tenant concepts side by side before signing a lease. Access StreetSpring for address-specific survivability predictions across 700+ business types.
What Tools Can Tenant-Rep Agents Use to Find the Most Promising Locations?
Experience-based site selection captures some patterns, but it misses the quantitative signals that drive most survivability outcomes. This analysis is produced by StreetSpring's prediction engine — the same technology used by commercial brokers and franchise operators to evaluate locations. Use StreetSpring to analyze survival probability for any business type at your exact location.
Key Takeaways
Data Summary: 330 business-location combinations exceed 90% survival in Phoenix. The top opportunity is Ukrainian Restaurant in Ocotillo at >97% survival. The city average is 76% two-year survival rate across 1,674 business and neighborhood combinations analyzed.
Action Items: Start with the top-ranked opportunities — Ukrainian Restaurant in Ocotillo — and explore adjacent neighborhoods for similar conditions. Analyze specific storefronts using StreetSpring's address-level tool, and weigh competitive saturation and local spending patterns before making a lease decision in Phoenix.
Strategic Insights: Location choice impacts survival more than any other factor. Block-by-block variation is one of the most underappreciated risks in site selection — averages hide it entirely. Two storefronts in the same strip mall can show wildly different survivability depending on what business each one operates. Revenue Capture Score is the single best predictor of success.
Related Resources
Technical note: Aggregated survivability rankings for Phoenix are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
View technical data for Phoenix
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and foot traffic data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.