Business Survivability Rankings: Washington DC
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks business survivability in Washington DC by survivability score. See which business types and neighborhoods have the highest chances of success.
Quick Summary
- Best business: Ukrainian Restaurant in Tysons (>97% survival rate)
- 186 business-location combinations exceed 90% survival rates in Washington DC
- City average: 75% chance of lasting 2+ years
- Rankings updated quarterly with latest market data
- Detailed methodology
Last reviewed by Bobby Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring — May 7, 2026
Table of Contents
- Summary
- What Are My Chances of Success?
- Business Survivability Rankings
- Understanding Survivability Ranges
- Most Important Factors
- Key Takeaways
- Strong Picks Across the Spectrum
- Related Resources
Summary
The 2026 survivability data for Washington DC tells a clear story: 186 business-location combinations exceed a 90% two-year survival rate, led by Ukrainian Restaurant in Tysons at >97%. Of all the decisions an entrepreneur makes, choosing the right location has the most outsized effect on long-term survival.
StreetSpring's AI models reveal the survivability of businesses in every major U.S. neighborhood, giving agents and entrepreneurs a trusted way to see their future success before opening day. Our prediction models incorporate hundreds of thousands of historical business outcomes to calibrate accuracy.
Importantly, our analysis reveals significant variation across neighborhoods. The best locations offer >97% survival probability, while less optimal areas show considerably lower rates.
What Are My Chances of Success Opening a Business in Washington DC?
A Washington DC business has a 75% average chance of lasting more than 2 years according to recent analysis.
How this city's average compares to the national baseline
Nevertheless, the location decision has more impact on two-year survival than any other variable. Revenue Capture Score is the anchor metric in StreetSpring's model because it captures both demand and competitive position in a single number. This metric estimates how effectively a business at a specific address can convert local foot traffic and spending into actual revenue.
What New Businesses Would Be the Most Successful in Washington DC?
The chart below displays the distribution of business outcomes across Washington DC by survivability score bracket:
Washington DC: Ukrainian Restaurant ranks #1 in survivability at >97% — 2026 StreetSpring analysis
The top 10 business opportunities in Washington DC are:
| Rank | Business Type | Neighborhood | Best Locations | Average Locations | Challenging Locations | Location Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ukrainian Restaurant | Tysons | 96.0% – 97.0% | — | 82.8% – 86.2% | — |
| 2 | Kosher Restaurant | Tysons | 96.2% – 97.0% | 90.9% – 94.9% | 80.6% – 83.9% | ~6% |
| 3 | American Restaurant | Tysons | 95.9% – 97.0% | — | 83.3% – 87.2% | — |
| 4 | Armenian Restaurant | Old Town | 94.3% – 97.0% | 83.8% – 87.7% | 70.4% – 74.0% | ~12% |
| 5 | Moroccan Restaurant | Old Town | 93.7% – 97.0% | 84.0% – 88.1% | 72.0% – 74.6% | ~12% |
| 6 | Hawaiian Restaurant | Old Town | 94.0% – 97.0% | 84.3% – 87.1% | 71.6% – 75.0% | ~12% |
| 7 | Laundromat | Arlington | 88.9% – 93.4% | 79.8% – 84.0% | 72.2% – 77.4% | ~12% |
| 8 | German Restaurant | Arlington | 89.6% – 93.7% | 81.3% – 85.0% | 73.2% – 77.2% | ~10% |
| 9 | Watch Store or Repair Shop | Barry Farm | 88.1% – 93.5% | 80.2% – 85.7% | 72.7% – 77.1% | ~11% |
| 10 | Caribbean / Latin Restaurant | Arlington | 89.3% – 92.3% | 80.0% – 83.8% | 73.4% – 76.6% | ~11% |
What this list does and doesn't say about competition
However, the specific location is very important and there are some great locations in neighborhoods that might not appear to be a great fit. For the most accurate reading, run your address through StreetSpring's live tool — it reflects data changes that occur between quarterly ranking updates.
Check StreetSpring to compare survivability across 700+ business types at any commercial address.
Understanding Survivability Ranges
Actual survivability at a specific address depends on storefront-level conditions such as line-of-sight visibility from the street, total competitor count within a half-mile, consumer spending density in the trade area, and historical turnover rate at the specific address.
What "average" looks like for this metro
The upper end of each range represents what strong operators in prime micro-locations can achieve, the lower end reflects typical headwinds, and range width shows market predictability.
To illustrate, an Ukrainian Restaurant showing 91.9% – 96.2% at average locations means most businesses in this category fall within this range. Your specific outcome depends on execution, timing, and exact storefront conditions. Narrower ranges indicate more predictable markets, while wider ranges signal higher risk-reward scenarios.
What Should I Consider When Opening in or Around Washington DC?
Revenue Capture Score
The Revenue Capture Score is the primary driver of survivability — it reflects how much of the available market a business can realistically win. Revenue Capture Score quantifies the expected market share a business will earn at a given address, based on competition, spending patterns, and mobility data. This is visible in practice: an Ukrainian Restaurant in a high-revenue-capture area might survive even with moderate competition, while the same business in a low-capture area could struggle despite less competition.
| Consideration | Common pitfall | What to verify before signing |
|---|---|---|
| Workforce availability | Hiring radius is smaller than you think — many neighborhoods can't staff a full team at standard wages. | Pull BLS wage data for your industry in this metro. Walk through your staffing plan with a local restaurant/retail operator before signing. |
| Anchor co-tenancy | Signing next to a high-traffic anchor that closes 6 months later, leaving you orphaned. | Ask for a co-tenancy clause — rent abatement or termination right if the anchor leaves. Standard for strong markets. |
| CAM + hidden costs | Stated rent looks great, then CAM fees, signage charges, and after-hours utilities add 15-30%. | Get the full operating expense breakdown for the past 2 years. Ask which costs are landlord-capped vs. uncapped. |
Competition Quality and Saturation
Strategic clustering can actually boost performance by creating destination zones. At the same time, oversaturation forces businesses to compete primarily on price, squeezing margins.
Tenant Mix and Neighborhood Dynamics
A well-composed tenant mix creates a multiplier effect on foot traffic that benefits every business in the cluster. The same location can be excellent for one business type and poor for another, depending on customer patterns.
Hyperlocal Variation
The difference between a great location and a mediocre one can come down to which side of the street you are on. Every address receives its own prediction — two storefronts a block apart can show meaningfully different survivability scores for the same business.
What Is the #1 Business to Start in Washington DC?
Ukrainian Restaurant in Tysons with >97% survivability based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis of 7,719 business and neighborhood combinations.
How Accurate Is StreetSpring's Survival Prediction?
Predictions are accurate within 95–99% depending on category and location, calibrated using 100+ data factors. Individual Survivability Scores carry a plus or minus 3% margin of error, validated against real-world business survival data. See our full methodology at streetspring.com/resources/tutorial/methodology. Review our methodology and data sources.
What Makes Washington DC Good for New Businesses?
Washington DC offers 186 business-location combinations with 90% or higher survival rates as of 2026. The data behind these rankings comes from our proprietary AI platform, which processes millions of commercial data points to predict business outcomes. Our analysis covers businesses serving the 24 largest metros in America.
The Update Schedule for Washington DC Data
Rankings for Washington DC are updated quarterly with the latest business opening and closure data and market conditions. Last updated: 2026-Q1. The next scheduled update for Washington DC will incorporate Q2 2026 data.
Can I Get Predictions for a Specific Address in Washington DC?
Yes. Visit StreetSpring.com to analyze any storefront address in Washington DC with address-specific survivability predictions for over 700 business types.
What Factors Determine Business Survivability in Washington DC?
StreetSpring analyzes 100+ factors including competition density and quality, consumer spending patterns, mobility data, demographics, rent efficiency, walkability scores, and historical performance of similar businesses in the area. Our prediction engine is built on proprietary algorithms and exclusive datasets that set it apart from generic market analysis tools.
Are These Predictions Guaranteed?
These are data-driven probabilities, not guarantees. However, the 95–99% accuracy rate means this approach produces significantly better outcomes than the intuition-based methods most operators use today. Keep in mind that results depend heavily on the exact location; strong sites often exist within neighborhoods that seem less favorable overall.
How Do Landlords Identify the Best Tenant for Their Property?
Aggregate statistics mask the wide variation in outcomes at individual properties. Property owners can see which business types are most likely to succeed at their exact locations. Try StreetSpring to see the Survivability Score for over 700 types of businesses at your storefront's address.
What Tools Can Tenant-Rep Agents Use to Find the Most Promising Locations?
Traditional site selection often relies on intuition and incomplete information. StreetSpring analyzes millions of data points with AI to forecast business survivability across U.S. neighborhoods. Visit StreetSpring to run a free survivability check on your target storefront.
Key Takeaways
Data Summary: 186 business-location combinations exceed 90% survival in Washington DC. The top opportunity is Ukrainian Restaurant in Tysons at >97% survival. The city average is 75% two-year survival rate across 7,719 business and neighborhood combinations analyzed.
Action Items: Start with the top-ranked opportunities — Ukrainian Restaurant in Tysons — and explore adjacent neighborhoods for similar conditions. Analyze specific storefronts using StreetSpring's address-level tool, and weigh competitive saturation and local spending patterns before making a lease decision in Washington DC.
Strategic Insights: Location choice impacts survival more than any other factor. Block-by-block variation is one of the most underappreciated risks in site selection — averages hide it entirely. The model captures business-type-specific dynamics: a hair salon and a bakery on the same block face entirely different competitive and spending environments. Revenue Capture Score is the single best predictor of success.
Strong Picks Across the Spectrum
Even subtypes that rank lower citywide have strong neighborhoods. Here's what to know about Washington DC's top, middle, and bottom-ranked business types:
Scandinavian Restaurant — ranked #1 citywide — the strongest subtype in Washington DC
- Tysons (94% survivability)
- Old-Town (85% survivability)
- Wakefield (85% survivability)
- Northeast (85% survivability)
- Edgewood (84% survivability)
Full Scandinavian Restaurants guide for Washington DC →
Tapas Restaurant — ranked #93 of 93 — among Washington DC's lower-ranked subtypes
- Tysons (62% survivability)
- Barney-Circle (57% survivability)
- Woodlands (57% survivability)
- Barry-Farm (56% survivability)
- Foxhall (56% survivability)
Full Tapas Restaurants guide for Washington DC →
Subtype rank in Washington DC is a starting point, not a verdict. Every business type has neighborhoods where it punches above its average.
Visual Data
Related Resources
- Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: Washington DC
- Washington DC Business Survivability Data 2026
- City Survivability Rankings for Ukrainian Restaurant
- National Neighborhood Rankings for Ukrainian Restaurant
- Ukrainian Restaurant Survivability Rankings: Washington DC
- Kosher Restaurant Survivability Rankings: Washington DC
- American Restaurant Survivability Rankings: Washington DC
- StreetSpring Methodology and Data Sources
Technical note: Aggregated survivability rankings for Washington DC are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
View technical data for Washington DC
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and foot traffic data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.