Survivability Rankings for Italian Restaurant in San Francisco
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the best and worst neighborhoods in San Francisco to open an Italian Restaurant, from Mission Bay (76% survival) to C...
By Robert Koons | Last reviewed: October 2026 | Methodology
Quick Summary
- Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
- #1 Neighborhood: Mission Bay: 76% average survivability for Italian Restaurant
- Neighborhoods at or above 70%: 22 of 107 analyzed
- City-wide average: 67% for Italian Restaurants
- Most challenging area: Colony Park at 50%
- Revenue advantage (top vs. avg location): ~37.4% more expected revenue in Mission Bay
- Data freshness: 2026 data · Full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- 10 Best Neighborhoods
- Where Would an Italian Restaurant Make the Most Money?
- What Should I Consider?
- Where Should I Start?
- FAQ: Best Neighborhoods
- FAQ: Can an Italian Restaurant Succeed in Lower-Ranked Areas?
- FAQ: How Often Are Rankings Updated?
- FAQ: Is an Italian Restaurant a Good Tenant?
- Landlord Survivability Data
- Best Neighborhoods for Any Business
Summary
Of all the neighborhoods in and around San Francisco, Mission Bay ranks #1 for opening an Italian Restaurant with 76% average chance of surviving more than 2 years, with the best locations offering 84% and the most challenging locations in Mission Bay at 53%. The worst neighborhoods include Colony Park with 50% average chance. Our data shows that roughly 15% of top-performing locations sit in neighborhoods ranked below the city median.
What Are the 10 Best Neighborhoods in and Around San Francisco to Open an Italian Restaurant?
Mission Bay ranks #1 of 107 neighborhoods analyzed in and around San Francisco for Italian Restaurant survivability, with a 76% chance of lasting two or more years as of 2026. The top 10 neighborhoods are:
| Rank | Neighborhood | At a good address | Average Locations | Best Locations | Challenging Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mission Bay | 84.0% | 74.0% to 78.0% | 83.0% to 84.0% | 53.0% to 55.0% |
| 2 | Bushrod | 83.6% | 76.0% to 81.0% | 82.0% to 84.0% | 66.0% to 68.0% |
| 3 | West Berkeley | 83.6% | 76.0% to 80.0% | 83.0% to 84.0% | 62.0% to 64.0% |
| 4 | Mission | 83.6% | 75.0% to 80.0% | 83.0% to 84.0% | 53.0% to 55.0% |
| 5 | Central Richmond | 83.6% | 75.0% to 80.0% | 83.0% to 84.0% | 51.0% to 53.0% |
| 6 | Twin Peaks | 83.6% | 74.0% to 79.0% | 83.0% to 84.0% | 62.0% to 64.0% |
| 7 | Haight Ashbury | 83.6% | 73.0% to 77.0% | 82.0% to 84.0% | 55.0% to 57.0% |
| 8 | Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside | 83.6% | 69.0% to 73.0% | 82.0% to 84.0% | 48.0% to 50.0% |
| 9 | Bayview Hunters Point | 83.6% | 67.0% to 72.0% | 83.0% to 84.0% | 50.0% to 52.0% |
| 10 | Potrero Hill | 83.5% | 76.0% to 81.0% | 82.0% to 84.0% | 65.0% to 67.0% |
Market conditions are changing daily and it is best to use StreetSpring's most up-to-date data. However, market conditions change daily, and it's best to use StreetSpring's live data to check the Survivability Score for a specific address.
Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each neighborhood. See our full methodology →
Try StreetSpring to see if this location is still the best and see if there are locations to rent in this area right now.
Where in or Around San Francisco Would an Italian Restaurant Make the Most Money?
In Mission Bay, the best possible location offers the opportunity of making ~37.4% more than the average location in or around San Francisco.
On the other hand, in Colony Park, the worst possible location could result in making ~66.4% less than the average location in the city.
Your choice of location is one of the few business decisions you can test against data before you commit. Opening an Italian Restaurant in San Francisco requires careful location choice. Across 107 neighborhoods analyzed, the overall average survival chance for a new Italian Restaurant is 67% for lasting more than 2 years, due to a combination of many factors across competition, consumer spending, and location dynamics. What makes a location ideal varies by business type: foot traffic patterns, competitor proximity, and consumer demographics all play different roles.
What Should I Consider When Opening an Italian Restaurant in or Around San Francisco?
When selecting a location for an Italian Restaurant in or around San Francisco, it is crucial to select a location with a very high Survivability Score. The model weighs the Revenue Capture Score alongside more than 100 other location factors. StreetSpring computes this by projecting the business's market share, which is based on the quality and quantity of primary, secondary, and tertiary competitors. StreetSpring has analyzed hundreds of thousands of business outcomes across major US metros. Strategic clustering can actually boost performance by creating destination zones. Every score is produced by our in-house models, trained on 570,000+ real business outcomes. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.
This can be summarized as:
Revenue Capture Score = Projected Market Share × Forecasted Spend on Specific Business
Related: Survivability Score: How We Calculate It & Why It Matters
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. StreetSpring's Survivability Scores are updated regularly, so the most accurate prediction for your exact storefront is always available in the live tool.
Where in or Around San Francisco Should I Start an Italian Restaurant?
StreetSpring's analysis shows the best areas are Mission Bay, Bushrod, and West Berkeley, while the most challenging neighborhoods would be Colony Park, Thousand Oaks, and Woodside (Concord). Market conditions are changing daily and it is best to use StreetSpring's most up-to-date data. For the most accurate predictions, always check your specific address in StreetSpring's live platform.
Related Articles:
- Business Survivability Rankings: San Francisco
- Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: San Francisco
- National City Survivability: Italian Restaurant
- National Neighborhood Survivability: Italian Restaurant
What Are the Best Neighborhoods in San Francisco to Open an Italian Restaurant?
Based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, the top neighborhood for an Italian Restaurant in San Francisco is Mission Bay with 76% average survivability, followed by Bushrod and West Berkeley. 22 of 107 neighborhoods analyzed exceed 70% two-year survival.
StreetSpring refreshes survivability data continuously: check the tool for the most current score at any address.
Can an Italian Restaurant Succeed in Lower-Ranked Neighborhoods in San Francisco?
Yes, neighborhood averages mask significant block-by-block variation. Even in neighborhoods ranked outside the top 10, individual storefronts with strong foot traffic, low direct competition, and favorable lease terms can outperform the area average. However, individual locations vary widely, and even in lower-scoring neighborhoods there are pockets that perform exceptionally well. Always check your specific address in StreetSpring's live platform for the most accurate prediction.
How Often Are Italian Restaurant Rankings in San Francisco Updated?
StreetSpring recalculates survivability scores regularly using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. Rankings are updated quarterly; the live tool always reflects the most current predictions for any address in San Francisco.
Is an Italian Restaurant a Good Tenant for San Francisco Landlords?
In Mission Bay, StreetSpring forecasts a 74.0% to 78.0% average chance for a new Italian Restaurant to survive more than 2 years, depending on the exact storefront. Check the current Survivability Score for any address instantly.
Landlord Survivability Data for Italian Restaurant in San Francisco
From a risk-assessment perspective, an Italian Restaurant tenant in Mission Bay carries the lowest risk with average survivability of 74.0% to 78.0%. Bushrod presents moderate risk (76.0% to 81.0%), and West Berkeley carries comparatively higher risk at 76.0% to 80.0%. Check the current Survivability Score for any address instantly.
Each prediction is calibrated to the specific address, factoring in competition, housing vacancy, and consumer spending at that exact location.
Related: How Landlord Representatives Can Reduce Vacancy & Increase Tenant Longevity
What Are the Best Neighborhoods in or Around San Francisco for My Business Overall?
You can see the best neighborhoods in or around San Francisco to open any type of business in our article Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: San Francisco.
Related Resources
- Business Survivability Rankings: San Francisco: See how Italian Restaurant compares to all other business types in San Francisco
- Best Cities to Open an Italian Restaurant in the US: National city-level survivability rankings for Italian Restaurant
- Business Survivability in Mission Bay, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #1 neighborhood
- Business Survivability in Bushrod, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #2 neighborhood
- Business Survivability in West Berkeley, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #3 neighborhood
Technical note: Aggregated survivability rankings for San Francisco are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
View technical data for San Francisco
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.