What is the best neighborhood in San Francisco to open a Smoke Shop?

Based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, the best neighborhood in San Francisco to open a Smoke Shop is West Berkeley, ranked #1 at 86.6% Best and 77.8% Typical. 22 of the 107 ranked neighborhoods are at or above 70% Typical.

What is the average survivability for Smoke Shop across San Francisco's ranked neighborhoods?

Across the 107 ranked neighborhoods in San Francisco, the average projected chance that a Smoke Shop lasts two or more years is 64.3% Typical. West Berkeley, ranked #1, is at 77.8% Typical.

What are the worst neighborhoods for Smoke Shop in San Francisco?

The most challenging neighborhoods in San Francisco for Smoke Shop include Financial District/South Beach (ranked last, at 51.5% Best and 49.6% Typical), Tenderloin, and Financial District. Market conditions are changing daily and it is best to use StreetSpring's most up-to-date data.

What should I consider when opening a Smoke Shop in San Francisco?

When evaluating a potential location, Revenue Capture Score should be the first number you look at. StreetSpring computes Revenue Capture Score by projecting the business's market share based on competitor quality and quantity, mobility patterns, and forecasted consumer spending for the specific business type.

How accurate are StreetSpring's Smoke Shop survivability predictions?

StreetSpring publishes its accuracy on the methodology page, stated with its base rate: how often the model tells an open business from a closed one on cities held out of training, its precision on risk flags, and its discrimination. Each score draws on 100+ factors and is reported as the projected chance of lasting two or more years, never as a guarantee. StreetSpring analyzes your specific address against comparable businesses to forecast success.

Survivability Rankings for Smoke Shop in San Francisco

Q: Where in San Francisco would a Smoke Shop make the most money?

It depends on the exact address. The Revenue Capture Score is the most important factor in choosing a location: StreetSpring's proprietary estimate of the revenue a business can capture at a specific address. Check it in the live tool for each San Francisco address you are weighing.

Q: Can a Smoke Shop succeed in lower-ranked neighborhoods in San Francisco?

Yes, neighborhood rankings are averages that mask significant block-by-block variation. Even in neighborhoods ranked outside the top 10, individual storefronts with strong foot traffic, low direct competition, and favorable lease terms can outperform the area average. New competitor openings and closures happen weekly: the live tool ensures you see the latest picture.

2026 ranking of San Francisco neighborhoods to open a Smoke Shop, on Best, from West Berkeley (86.6% survival) to Financial District/South Beach.

September 22, 2026•14 min read

By Robert Koons | Last reviewed: November 2026 | Methodology

Quick Summary

Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address

Best, Typical and Worst: Best is the average chance of lasting two or more years for the better of two addresses picked at random in the place, in a smaller space; Typical is the average address; Worst is the same for the worse of two, in a larger space

#1 Neighborhood: West Berkeley: 86.6% Best, 77.8% Typical for Smoke Shop

The range inside West Berkeley: the best locations reach 89.2% and the most challenging sit at 56.2%, a spread of 33.0 points. Picking the neighborhood narrows the search; the specific address is what settles it

Neighborhoods at or above 70% Typical: 22 of 107 ranked

Average across the 107 ranked neighborhoods (typical address): 64.3% for Smoke Shops

Most challenging area: Financial District/South Beach: 51.5% Best, 49.6% Typical

Revenue Capture Score: the most important factor in choosing a location, StreetSpring's proprietary estimate of the revenue a business can capture at a specific address

Data freshness: 2026 data · Full methodology →

Summary
10 Best Neighborhoods
Where Would a Smoke Shop Make the Most Money?
What Should I Consider?
Where Should I Start?
FAQ: Best Neighborhoods
FAQ: Can a Smoke Shop Succeed in Lower-Ranked Areas?
FAQ: How Often Are Rankings Updated?
FAQ: Is a Smoke Shop a Good Tenant?
Landlord Survivability Data
Best Neighborhoods for Any Business

Summary

West Berkeley leads San Francisco's 2026 survivability rankings for Smoke Shop operators, with a projected chance of lasting two or more years of 86.6% Best and 77.8% Typical. The last-ranked neighborhood is Financial District/South Beach, at 51.5% Best and 49.6% Typical. For the most current predictions, visit StreetSpring to analyze your specific location in real-time.

What Are the 10 Best Neighborhoods in and Around San Francisco to Open a Smoke Shop?

West Berkeley ranks #1 of the 107 ranked neighborhoods in and around San Francisco for Smoke Shop survivability, with a projected chance of lasting two or more years of 86.6% Best as of 2026. The top 10 neighborhoods are:

Rank	Neighborhood	Metro	Best	Typical	Worst
1	West Berkeley	San Francisco	86.6%	77.8%	72.5%
2	Central Berkeley	San Francisco	86.4%	79.1%	75.1%
3	Lorin	San Francisco	85.4%	78.1%	73.7%
4	Temescal	San Francisco	85.3%	76.6%	70.7%
5	Bushrod	San Francisco	84.7%	77.6%	73.1%
6	Longfellow	San Francisco	84.5%	77.2%	72.5%
7	Rockridge	San Francisco	83.3%	75.7%	70.0%
8	Lincoln Park	San Francisco	82.9%	75.2%	69.3%
9	East Peralta	San Francisco	82.0%	76.4%	72.2%
10	Mission-Foothill	San Francisco	81.6%	75.5%	70.4%

Best and Worst are the average results for the better and the worse of two addresses picked at random in the place: a weighted average of every scored location in which the best locations count the most for Best and the weakest count the most for Worst. Typical is the average address. Best is shown for a smaller space (half the standard size) and Worst for a larger one (half again as large), at the metro's median asking rent, using the same rent rule as our tool; Typical is at the market rent.

Even neighborhoods with modest average scores can harbor exceptional individual locations. Because local conditions evolve weekly, the live survivability tool offers a more current snapshot than any published ranking.

The ranking runs on Best. Every figure is the projected chance of lasting two or more years, as printed in the linked file. See our full methodology →

These figures assume a lease at the local market rate. The live tool adjusts the figure when you enter a lease that is cheaper or more expensive than that.

Try StreetSpring to see if this location is still the best and see if there are locations to rent in this area right now.

Where in or Around San Francisco Would a Smoke Shop Make the Most Money?

Where a Smoke Shop would make the most money in or around San Francisco comes down to the exact address. The Revenue Capture Score is the most important factor in choosing a location: StreetSpring's proprietary estimate of the revenue a business can capture at a specific address.

West Berkeley is ranked #1 for Smoke Shop survivability, at 86.6% Best and 77.8% Typical; Financial District/South Beach is ranked last of the 107, at 51.5% Best and 49.6% Typical. Revenue at a specific storefront is what the Revenue Capture Score estimates, so check it for each address you are weighing.

Location is one of the few things about a new business you can measure before it opens. Opening a Smoke Shop in San Francisco requires careful location choice. Across the 107 ranked neighborhoods, the average projected chance that a new Smoke Shop lasts two or more years is 64.3% Typical. What makes a location ideal varies by business type: foot traffic patterns, competitor proximity, and consumer demographics all play different roles.

What Should I Consider When Opening a Smoke Shop in or Around San Francisco?

When selecting a location for a Smoke Shop in or around San Francisco, it is crucial to select a location with a very high Survivability Score. When evaluating a potential location, Revenue Capture Score should be the first number you look at. StreetSpring computes this by projecting the business's market share, which is based on the quality and quantity of primary, secondary, and tertiary competitors. The analysis behind these rankings spans millions of data points across competition, spending, and mobility. Some of the best-performing locations are surrounded by complementary competitors that drive foot traffic. These results are powered by exclusive algorithms trained on one of the largest commercial real estate datasets in the U.S. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.

This can be summarized as:

Revenue Capture Score = Projected Market Share × Forecasted Spend on Specific Business

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. For the most accurate predictions, always check your specific address in StreetSpring's live platform.

Where in or Around San Francisco Should I Start a Smoke Shop?

StreetSpring's analysis shows the best areas are West Berkeley, Central Berkeley, and Lorin, while the most challenging neighborhoods would be Financial District/South Beach, Tenderloin, and Financial District. StreetSpring's Survivability Scores are updated regularly, so the most accurate prediction for your exact storefront is always available in the live tool. StreetSpring's Survivability Scores are updated regularly, so the most accurate prediction for your exact storefront is always available in the live tool.

Related Articles:

What Are the Best Neighborhoods in San Francisco to Open a Smoke Shop?

Based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, the top neighborhood for a Smoke Shop in San Francisco is West Berkeley, at 86.6% Best and 77.8% Typical, followed by Central Berkeley and Lorin. 22 of the 107 ranked neighborhoods are at or above 70% Typical.

Market dynamics shift frequently; validate these insights with real-time data from StreetSpring.

Can a Smoke Shop Succeed in Lower-Ranked Neighborhoods in San Francisco?

Yes, neighborhood averages mask significant block-by-block variation. Even in neighborhoods ranked outside the top 10, individual storefronts with strong foot traffic, low direct competition, and favorable lease terms can outperform the area average. Remember that a neighborhood average smooths over wide variation: your exact block could significantly outperform. Always check your specific address in StreetSpring's live platform for the most accurate prediction.

How Often Are Smoke Shop Rankings in San Francisco Updated?

StreetSpring recalculates survivability scores regularly using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. Rankings are updated quarterly; the live tool always reflects the most current predictions for any address in San Francisco.

Is a Smoke Shop a Good Tenant for San Francisco Landlords?

In West Berkeley, the projected chance that a new Smoke Shop lasts two or more years is 77.8% Typical and 86.6% Best, depending on the exact storefront. Check the current Survivability Score for any address instantly.

Landlord Survivability Data for Smoke Shop in San Francisco

From a risk-assessment perspective, a Smoke Shop tenant in West Berkeley, the top-ranked neighborhood, has a projected chance of lasting two or more years of 86.6% Best. Central Berkeley is at 86.4% Best, and Lorin at 85.4% Best. Check the current Survivability Score for any address instantly.

StreetSpring can give you the precise likelihood that hundreds of different businesses will last at an exact address.

What Are the Best Neighborhoods in or Around San Francisco for My Business Overall?

You can see the best neighborhoods in or around San Francisco to open any type of business in our article Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: San Francisco.

Business Survivability Rankings: San Francisco: See how Smoke Shop compares to all other business types in San Francisco
Best Cities to Open a Smoke Shop in the US: National city-level survivability rankings for Smoke Shop
Business Survivability in West Berkeley, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #1 neighborhood
Business Survivability in Central Berkeley, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #2 neighborhood
Business Survivability in Lorin, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #3 neighborhood

Technical note: Aggregated survivability rankings for San Francisco are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.

View technical data for San Francisco

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the figures shown here.

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