How to Start a Cafe: The Decisions, in the Order They Bind

Starting a cafe is a sequence of decisions and the order matters: the address is the one you cannot undo, so get it right first.

What we hold is the projected chance a cafe lasts two or more years at a specific address, which across the 24 metros we rank runs from 67.1% to 75.1% Typical.

A StreetSpring score is the projected chance that a specific business type lasts two or more years at a specific address, as a percentage. It is not a rating, not a raw model output and not a revenue estimate. It is built from 570,000+ observed business outcomes and the location factors around each scored address.

On this page, Best is the average chance of lasting two or more years for the better of two addresses picked at random in the place, in a smaller space. Typical is the average address, and Worst is the same for the worse of two addresses, in a larger space.

The short answer on location. Across the 24 US metros we rank for a cafe, the projected chance one lasts two or more years on Best runs from 74.0% in St. Louis to 84.3% in Chicago. At a typical address St. Louis reads 68.0% and Chicago reads 75.1%. Inside Chicago alone the gap between the best and the weakest scored address is 41.0 points, which is wider than the 10.3 point gap between the best and the worst metro. The city is the coarse decision. The block is the real one.

Where in the sequence a cafe is actually decided

Opening a cafe is not a checklist, it is a sequence, and the early items bind the later ones. What the business is, which metro, which block. Everything downstream of those, the permits and the fit out among them, follows from an address you have already committed to and is mostly recoverable. The block is the one irreversible choice left, almost always made with no data to hand, and the only one this page can put evidence behind.

The method is the same whatever you are opening, so it lives on one page rather than on all of them: the order the decisions bind when you open a local business. What follows is the part that is only true of this business type.

How far the metro moves a cafe. The Best figure for a cafe varies 10.3 points between the best and the worst of the 24 metros we rank. That gap is the 140th widest of the 146 types we score. For a cafe the metro barely matters. Almost every other type we score is moved more by which metro it opens in, which means a founder who is already committed to a city has given up very little, and the address inside it is carrying nearly the whole decision. The spread inside a single metro, best address to weakest, is 41.0 points, so this type's position on that league table does not change the conclusion: the block outweighs the city.

What the location section of a cafe business plan has to prove

Of the seven sections in a cafe business plan, six are yours: the concept, the operating model, your own quoted numbers, the regulatory path for your own city, the downside and the ask. The seventh is the location case, and it is the one most plans treat as a paragraph about a neighborhood the founder already likes. A landlord reads it first and a lender reads it twice. It is also the only section anyone can bring published evidence to, which is what this page is for.

The approach is common to every business type we score, so it is kept in one place: how to write a local business plan. From here on, the page is specific to this type.

Why there is no cost figure on this page

We hold no cost data, so this page prints no startup cost for a cafe and no page that has never seen your lease should print one for you. What we do hold is what the money buys. In Chicago the gap between the best and the weakest scored address for a cafe is 41.0 points of projected two-year survival, and that gap is wider than the gap between the best and the worst metro in the country. The same capital spent on a worse address is the same capital spent against worse odds.

So the useful version of the question is not what a cafe costs. It is: for the rent you can actually afford, what are the best odds you can buy, and where? That has an answer and it is below.

One page carries the method, since it does not vary by business type: what we will not guess for you. The rest of this page is the part that only applies to this one.

What survival tells you about profit, and what it does not

There is no profit, margin or revenue figure for a cafe here, because we hold none. There is the thing underneath all three: the projected chance a cafe is still open after two or more years at a given address. Inside a single metro that moves 41.0 points from the best address to the weakest. Margin on a closed cafe is zero, which is why a site low on the table that follows is not a worse margin forecast but a forecast resting on a lottery ticket.

Because the method is identical whatever you are opening, it is written once, here: what a survival score does not tell you. Everything after this point is true of this business type and no other.

Where a cafe is projected to last longest, and where it is not

Ranked on Best. Typical is the mean across the scored addresses in each metro.

The 24 metros we rank for a cafe

Best and Worst are the average results for the better and the worse of two addresses picked at random in the metro: a weighted average of every scored location in which the best locations count the most for Best and the weakest count the most for Worst. Typical is the average address. Best is shown for a smaller space (half the standard size) and Worst for a larger one (half again as large), at the metro's median asking rent, using the same rent rule as our tool; Typical is at the market rent.

Where the ranking ties, say so. Published figures for a business type are rounded to one decimal (two where a table needs it), so several places can print the same value. Chicago is the only metro at the top Best figure; Philadelphia is less than one point behind. Where two metros print the same figure on Best, the data does not separate them, and the order between them is the file's tie-break, not a finding. Use the typical-address column when you need to separate places that tie on Best. The range the figures sit in is the file's, not a scale we chose for this page: in Chicago, at the local market rent, the best scored address for a cafe reads 89.0% and the weakest 48.0%, and a metro's Best figure is an average over its scored addresses, not the best of them.

Inside Chicago, which is the decision that matters

The metro layer above is the coarse one. Chicago carries 99 ranked neighborhoods for a cafe, and these are the file's top five, in the file's own order:

Best and Worst are the average results for the better and the worse of two addresses picked at random in the place: a weighted average of every scored location in which the best locations count the most for Best and the weakest count the most for Worst. Typical is the average address. Best is shown for a smaller space (half the standard size) and Worst for a larger one (half again as large), at the metro's median asking rent, using the same rent rule as our tool; Typical is at the market rent.

2 of the 99 ranked neighborhoods share the 89.8% Best figure, so they share rank 1=; 2 of them are shown here. Further down, 2 ranked neighborhoods share 89.3% (rank 5=).

Streeterville. Top-bracket households run to 68.4% here, the stock is young here, 45.0% of it built since 2000, 88.6% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, well above this metro. Roscoe Village. The stock is young here, 24.3% of it built since 2000, income here is at the 94.0 percentile, near the top of the metro, poverty is low here by this metro's standard, at 5.1%. Near North Side. 35.3% of the housing went up after 2000, new for this metro, 14.3% of homes sit empty, high for this metro, income here is at the 84.0 percentile, near the top of the metro. Sheffield Neighbors. People get to work quickly, a median commute of 30.0 minutes, income here is at the 90.0 percentile, near the top of the metro, 80.6% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, well above this metro. Palmer Square. Household size comes to 2.1 people, much of it is new build, 25.1% of the housing going up after 2000, on income it reaches the 75.3 percentile of this metro.

Some of these five share a Best figure, counted above; where they do, the typical-address column is the one that separates them. Two things keep a place off this list. It may have fewer than ten scored addresses, which is the threshold for a rank. Or it may be withheld from every ranking because it is not a place a business can open, such as a park, a federal campus or a shopping center in another state. Withheld places keep their scores and are excluded from the counts, so nothing here is short.

What the figures above do and do not tell you. What they tell you, for a cafe, is which of the 24 metros we rank offer the best and the worst projected two-year survival, and how far apart the strongest and weakest address inside one metro sit. What they do not tell you is that a cafe in Chicago will beat one in St. Louis. The metro is the coarse layer: the spread within a single metro, 41.0 points between its best and weakest scored address, is wider than the 10.3 points separating the best metro from the worst on Best. This data is sharp enough to choose a block, not a city. It measures nothing about your concept, your operator, your menu or your lease terms, and neither does any other model.

The best blocks for a cafe, metro by metro

Chicago has had its own section. The table that follows does the same job for the rest of the metros we rank for a cafe, on the straightforward grounds that the metro you are actually standing in is usually not the national leader. Rank order inside each metro is the file's. Ten scored addresses is the threshold for a place to be ranked at all, so nothing below is cut short.

Best and Worst are the average results for the better and the worse of two addresses picked at random in the place: a weighted average of every scored location in which the best locations count the most for Best and the weakest count the most for Worst. Typical is the average address. Best is shown for a smaller space (half the standard size) and Worst for a larger one (half again as large), at the metro's median asking rent, using the same rent rule as our tool; Typical is at the market rent. Best is shown to two decimals in this table so that places with the same one-decimal figure can be told apart.

A cafe in Philadelphia, place by place

East Kensington. 30 addresses in East Kensington carry a score for a cafe. Best projects 89.95% and Typical 88.1%. The gap inside East Kensington is 17.6 points, from 89.0% at the best scored address to 71.4% at the weakest. Getting the neighborhood right is half of it. At the worst address East Kensington has, a cafe projects a 28.6% chance of closing inside two or more years. The file tiers East Kensington Great for a cafe, and rates a cafe 2nd of the 129 business types it ranks there. As a place, 49.2% of households sit in the top income bracket, high for this metro, on income it reaches the 56.8 percentile of this metro, 10.4% of homes sit empty, high for this metro, the median age is 34.7 years, the poverty rate is 20.6%.

Bella Vista. Bella Vista holds 21 scored addresses for a cafe, projecting 89.94% Best and 88.7% Typical. The spread is 1.7 points, 89.0% at the best scored address against 87.3% at the weakest. That is close enough that in Bella Vista the neighborhood is the choice that matters. Put a cafe at the weakest address in Bella Vista and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 12.7% of the time. The file calls Bella Vista Great for a cafe and places a cafe 2nd among the 129 business types it ranks in Bella Vista. Bella Vista as a place: 9.1% of the housing is empty, employment stands at 94.3%, 75.4% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, well above this metro, much of it is new build, 13.8% of the housing going up after 2000, income here is at the 84.5 percentile, near the top of the metro.

Lower Moyamensing. Here the projection for a cafe is 89.89% Best, 88.3% Typical, taken over 42 scored addresses. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 84.0%, a narrow band of 5.0 points, so the address shifts the odds here without deciding them. Put a cafe at the weakest address in Lower Moyamensing and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 16.0% of the time. The file tiers Lower Moyamensing Great for a cafe, and rates a cafe 3rd of the 129 business types it ranks there. As a place, the median journey to work is 32.1 minutes, the middle of the age range sits at 37.4 years, 31.4% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, employment comes to 93.5%, at 2.5% post-2000 stock, the buildings here are older than most.

Whitman. Across the 28 addresses scored here, a cafe projects 89.86% Best and 88.4% Typical. From 89.0% at the best scored address to 86.5% at the weakest is 2.5 points. Enough for the address to move the odds, not enough for it to settle them. The bottom of Whitman, its weakest address, projects a cafe failing 13.5% of the time within two or more years. Whitman is Great for a cafe in the file, and 2nd of the 129 types it ranks there is where a cafe lands. As a place, households are large, averaging 2.6 people, high-income households come to 44.8%, commutes come to a median 30.8 minutes, on income it lands at the 49.3 percentile of this metro, the median age is 37.3 years.

Walnut Hill. Scored across 26 addresses, a cafe in Walnut Hill reaches 89.86% Best and 86.8% Typical. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 57.9%, a spread of 31.1 points. This is a place where the address decides the outcome and the neighborhood barely narrows it. Down at the weakest address in Walnut Hill the projected chance a cafe does not last two years is 42.1%. Walnut Hill reads Great for a cafe, with a cafe sitting 1st among the 129 types ranked there. On the ground, at 22.3% the top bracket is thin here, it sits low in this metro for income, at the 29.1 percentile, it is unusually well educated, with 43.6% of adults holding a bachelor's degree or more, at 30.3 years the median age sits below this metro's, households are small, averaging 1.9 people, which reads as singles and couples rather than families.

A cafe in Miami, place by place

Central Beach. A cafe in Central Beach is projected at 89.88% where the address is strong and 86.8% where it is ordinary, measured over 29 scored addresses. Best to weakest in Central Beach is 89.0% against 75.4%, 13.6 points apart, which is wide enough that the specific site is doing more work than the name of the area. Measured at the weakest address in Central Beach, a cafe is projected to fail at 24.6% over two or more years. Central Beach is Great for a cafe in the file, and 2nd of the 129 types it ranks there is where a cafe lands. In Central Beach itself, adults with a bachelor's degree or more come to 42.5%, 58.8% of homes sit empty, high for this metro, income here is at the 86.5 percentile, near the top of the metro, it is an Upper-Middle-income area, poverty is uncommon here, 7.0%.

Lake Ridge. Here the projection for a cafe is 89.60% Best, 85.4% Typical, taken over 11 scored addresses. There are 14.4 points between the best scored address at 89.0% and the weakest at 74.6%, so choosing Lake Ridge is the start of the decision rather than the end of it. Take the weakest address in Lake Ridge and a cafe there is projected to close within two years 25.4% of the time. Lake Ridge reads Great for a cafe, with a cafe sitting 21st among the 129 types ranked there. Lake Ridge as a place: the median age is 44.9 years, 50.4% of households sit in the top bracket, adults with a bachelor's degree or more come to 43.2%, the stock is young here, 40.6% of it built since 2000, it is an Upper-Middle-income area.

Oakwood Hills. Across the 15 addresses scored here, a cafe projects 89.48% Best and 86.3% Typical. A 5.0 point band, 88.2% to 83.2%, separates the best address in Oakwood Hills from the weakest. That is a real edge and a modest one. Move the same cafe to the weakest address in Oakwood Hills and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 16.8%. On the file's tiers Oakwood Hills is Great for a cafe, and a cafe takes 7th place of the 129 types ranked in Oakwood Hills. In Oakwood Hills itself, household size comes to 2.1 people, the poverty rate is 12.2%, employment comes to 97.7%, 51.9% of households are high income, much of it is new build, 29.2% of the housing going up after 2000.

Brickell. Across the 32 addresses scored here, a cafe projects 89.44% Best and 84.4% Typical. Inside Brickell the scored addresses range 63.8% to 89.0%. 25.2 points of difference in one place is the clearest case there is for choosing the site and not the area. A cafe at the weakest address in Brickell has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 36.2%. Brickell is Great for a cafe in the file, and 1st of the 129 types it ranks there is where a cafe lands. The place itself: the area reads Affluent-income, poverty is uncommon here, 7.9%, top-bracket households run to 67.6% here, the commute is short, a median 22.7 minutes, households are small, averaging 1.8 people, which reads as singles and couples rather than families.

Harbordale. A cafe in Harbordale is projected at 89.21% where the address is strong and 82.7% where it is ordinary, measured over 25 scored addresses. Inside Harbordale the scored addresses range 62.0% to 89.0%. 27.0 points of difference in one place is the clearest case there is for choosing the site and not the area. The same cafe at the worst address in Harbordale is projected to fail 38.0% of the time over two or more years. A cafe is Great in Harbordale by the file's tier, and 2nd of the 129 types it ranks in Harbordale. As a place, high earners are scarce here, at 34.2% of households, the median age runs older here, 57.5 years, households run small here, 1.5 people, 35.8% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, below this metro, at 9.9% the poverty rate sits below this metro.

A cafe in San Antonio, place by place

Government Hill. The file scores 14 addresses for a cafe in Government Hill: 87.40% Best, 80.2% Typical. The gap from 88.2% to 59.7% is 28.5 points, wider than the gap between many whole metros. In Government Hill the address is the decision and the neighborhood name tells you little. Down at the weakest address in Government Hill the projected chance a cafe does not last two years is 40.3%. A cafe is Great in Government Hill by the file's tier, and 1st of the 129 types it ranks in Government Hill. On the ground, it sits low in this metro for income, at the 2.9 percentile, formal education is less common here than across the metro, at 14.6% of adults, at 19.5% the top bracket is thin here, it is a Low-Income-income area, the median age is 34.4 years.

Laddie Place and North Wilson. Scored across 10 addresses, a cafe in Laddie Place and North Wilson reaches 85.46% Best and 78.6% Typical. There are 20.8 points between the best scored address at 88.2% and the weakest at 67.4%, so choosing Laddie Place and North Wilson is the start of the decision rather than the end of it. The bottom of Laddie Place and North Wilson, its weakest address, projects a cafe failing 32.6% of the time within two or more years. Laddie Place and North Wilson comes out Good for a cafe, and a cafe ranks 16th of the 129 types the file ranks in Laddie Place and North Wilson. In Laddie Place and North Wilson itself, 94.2% of people are in work, at 24.6% the poverty rate is among the higher ones here, the building stock is old, with only 5.4% of it built after 2000, it is a Working-income area, 21.9% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, below this metro.

Shearer Hills/Ridgeview. Across the 41 addresses scored here, a cafe projects 83.14% Best and 76.3% Typical. Inside Shearer Hills/Ridgeview the scored addresses range 54.8% to 88.2%. 33.4 points of difference in one place is the clearest case there is for choosing the site and not the area. A cafe at the weakest address in Shearer Hills/Ridgeview has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 45.2%. A cafe is Good in Shearer Hills/Ridgeview by the file's tier, and 108th of the 129 types it ranks in Shearer Hills/Ridgeview. In Shearer Hills/Ridgeview itself, formal education is less common here than across the metro, at 32.9% of adults, poverty runs to 15.0%, above this metro, the median age is 41.6 years, 8.7% of homes sit vacant, the average household is 2.2 people.

Quintana Community. 33 addresses in Quintana Community carry a score for a cafe. Best projects 83.05% and Typical 75.1%. The best scored address reaches 88.2% and the weakest 50.2%, a spread of 38.0 points. This is a place where the address decides the outcome and the neighborhood barely narrows it. For a cafe the weakest address in Quintana Community projects failure within two or more years at 49.8%. A cafe is Average in Quintana Community by the file's tier, and 11th of the 129 types it ranks in Quintana Community. On the ground, empty homes run to 14.6%, which reads as a thin street in the data, only 12.9% of the housing went up after 2000, households are large, averaging 2.8 people, the median journey to work is 29.1 minutes, the middle of the age range sits at 38.4 years.

Greater Harmony Hills. A cafe here reads 80.71% Best and 74.2% Typical across 23 scored addresses. Greater Harmony Hills runs from 88.2% all the way down to 56.6%, 31.6 points. Saying you are opening in Greater Harmony Hills says almost nothing until you say which address. The weakest address in Greater Harmony Hills carries a projected failure rate of 43.4% for a cafe over two or more years. Rated Average for a cafe, Greater Harmony Hills puts a cafe 12th out of the 129 business types the file ranks there. On the ground, at a median age of 43.1 years this is an older area than most of the metro, adults with a bachelor's degree or more come to 35.2%, households average 2.2 people, the median journey to work is 23.8 minutes, vacancy comes to 10.6% of homes.

A cafe in Denver, place by place

Union Station. A cafe in Union Station is projected at 89.56% where the address is strong and 87.1% where it is ordinary, measured over 12 scored addresses. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 80.7%, a narrow band of 8.3 points, so the address shifts the odds here without deciding them. Put a cafe at the weakest address in Union Station and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 19.3% of the time. Union Station comes out Great for a cafe, and a cafe ranks 4th of the 129 types the file ranks in Union Station. The place itself: it is unusually well educated, with 79.3% of adults holding a bachelor's degree or more, on income it sits in the Upper-Middle band, households run small here, 1.5 people, top-bracket households run to 76.4% here, at 8.8% the poverty rate sits below this metro.

City Park West. 12 addresses in City Park West carry a score for a cafe. Best projects 88.98% and Typical 85.1%. City Park West spans 12.6 points, 89.0% down to 76.4%. Two addresses a few streets apart here are not the same bet. Down at the weakest address in City Park West the projected chance a cafe does not last two years is 23.6%. The file's own tier for a cafe in City Park West is Great, with a cafe 98th of the 129 types ranked in the place. What the surrounding blocks look like: employment comes to 97.2%, the median age is 36.1 years, at 17.6% the poverty rate is among the higher ones here, the stock is young here, 30.7% of it built since 2000, it is a Working-income area.

Cole. Scored across 15 addresses, a cafe in Cole reaches 88.66% Best and 84.1% Typical. 89.0% at the best scored address against 73.2% at the weakest is 15.8 points of spread. The neighborhood gets you a shortlist and the address settles it. Put a cafe at the weakest address in Cole and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 26.8% of the time. Rated Great for a cafe, Cole puts a cafe 24th out of the 129 business types the file ranks there. In Cole itself, the median age is 33.7 years, degree attainment sits at 52.6% of adults, 60.5% of households sit in the top bracket, employment stands at 92.6%, vacancy runs high at 9.9% of homes, which is what a thin retail street looks like in the data.

Jefferson Park. A cafe here reads 88.65% Best and 85.3% Typical across 14 scored addresses. The gap inside Jefferson Park is 11.3 points, from 89.0% at the best scored address to 77.7% at the weakest. Getting the neighborhood right is half of it. The bottom of Jefferson Park, its weakest address, projects a cafe failing 22.3% of the time within two or more years. Rated Great for a cafe, Jefferson Park puts a cafe 112th out of the 129 business types the file ranks there. What the surrounding blocks look like: 10.5% of people here are below the poverty line, employment stands at 97.4%, 6.0% of the housing is empty, much of it is new build, 75.3% of the housing going up after 2000, it sits near the top of this metro for income, at the 80.0 percentile.

Berkeley. 44 addresses in Berkeley carry a score for a cafe. Best projects 88.33% and Typical 82.7%. Inside Berkeley the scored addresses range 59.7% to 89.0%. 29.3 points of difference in one place is the clearest case there is for choosing the site and not the area. At the worst address Berkeley has, a cafe projects a 40.3% chance of closing inside two or more years. The file's own tier for a cafe in Berkeley is Great, with a cafe 14th of the 129 types ranked in the place. What the surrounding blocks look like: much of it is new build, 23.9% of the housing going up after 2000, the median commute runs 24.6 minutes, household size comes to 2.0 people, the median age is 36.9 years, 96.0% of people are in work.

A cafe in Detroit, place by place

Midtown. Midtown holds 32 scored addresses for a cafe, projecting 89.11% Best and 85.6% Typical. Midtown spans 21.6 points, 89.0% down to 67.4%. Two addresses a few streets apart here are not the same bet. The same cafe at the worst address in Midtown is projected to fail 32.6% of the time over two or more years. For a cafe the file tiers Midtown Great; against the 129 types ranked in Midtown a cafe comes 1st. In Midtown itself, it is a Working-income area, households are small, averaging 1.6 people, which reads as singles and couples rather than families, the poverty rate is high for this metro at 39.1%, vacancy runs high at 22.4% of homes, which is what a thin retail street looks like in the data, the median journey to work is 21.9 minutes.

Eastern Market. For a cafe, Eastern Market projects 84.4% Typical and 89.05% Best, over 13 scored addresses. Eastern Market spans 19.0 points, 89.0% down to 70.0%. Two addresses a few streets apart here are not the same bet. Put a cafe at the weakest address in Eastern Market and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 30.0% of the time. Eastern Market is Great for a cafe in the file, and 1st of the 129 types it ranks there is where a cafe lands.

Hubbard Richard. A cafe in Hubbard Richard is projected at 86.99% where the address is strong and 81.7% where it is ordinary, measured over 25 scored addresses. The best scored address reaches 88.2% and the weakest 64.2%, a spread of 24.0 points, so the neighborhood narrows the search and the address is what still decides it. The bottom of Hubbard Richard, its weakest address, projects a cafe failing 35.8% of the time within two or more years. In the file Hubbard Richard is Great for a cafe, which puts a cafe 1st of the 129 types ranked there. In Hubbard Richard itself, on income it lands at the 31.0 percentile of this metro, 18.4% of homes sit vacant, poverty comes to 30.4%, 23.8% of the housing went up after 2000, new for this metro, degree holders are unusually common here, 36.1% of adults.

Wayne State. For a cafe, Wayne State projects 78.9% Typical and 86.67% Best, over 23 scored addresses. The gap from 89.0% to 59.7% is 29.3 points, wider than the gap between many whole metros. In Wayne State the address is the decision and the neighborhood name tells you little. Take the weakest address in Wayne State and a cafe there is projected to close within two years 40.3% of the time. Wayne State is Great for a cafe in the file, and 1st of the 129 types it ranks there is where a cafe lands. Wayne State as a place: vacancy runs high at 22.1% of homes, which is what a thin retail street looks like in the data, the median commute runs 21.9 minutes, 31.3% of households sit in the top bracket, poverty comes to 33.9%, employment comes to 87.0%.

Millennium Village. Take the Best figure in Millennium Village and a cafe projects 85.90%. Take Typical and it projects 77.5%. 15 addresses here carry a score. A 32.0 point spread, 89.0% to 57.0%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. Put a cafe at the weakest address in Millennium Village and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 43.0% of the time. The file calls Millennium Village Great for a cafe and places a cafe 2nd among the 129 business types it ranks in Millennium Village. What the surrounding blocks look like: it is a Working-income area, it sits low in this metro for income, at the 17.0 percentile, getting to work takes a median 34.8 minutes, longer than most of this metro, vacancy comes to 21.4% of homes, 30.4% of households sit in the top bracket.

A cafe in Houston, place by place

Midtown. A cafe in Midtown is projected at 88.63% where the address is strong and 83.5% where it is ordinary, measured over 37 scored addresses. Midtown runs from 89.0% all the way down to 62.4%, 26.6 points. Saying you are opening in Midtown says almost nothing until you say which address. At the weakest address in Midtown a cafe carries a projected failure rate of 37.6% over two or more years. Midtown comes out Great for a cafe, and a cafe ranks 101st of the 129 types the file ranks in Midtown. What the surrounding blocks look like: it is unusually well educated, with 72.0% of adults holding a bachelor's degree or more, on income it reaches the 74.0 percentile of this metro, top-bracket households run to 62.8% here, the area reads Upper-Middle-income, empty homes run to 14.9%, which reads as a thin street in the data.

Neartown/Montrose. For a cafe, Neartown/Montrose projects 81.1% Typical and 87.56% Best, over 91 scored addresses. 30.6 points separate the best scored address at 89.0% from the weakest at 58.4%. A cafe at the wrong end of that range is a different proposition from one at the right end. The weakest address in Neartown/Montrose carries a projected failure rate of 41.6% for a cafe over two or more years. The file calls Neartown/Montrose Great for a cafe and places a cafe 30th among the 129 business types it ranks in Neartown/Montrose. On the ground, median age comes to 37.2 years, 76.6% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, well above this metro, on income it reaches the 84.0 percentile of this metro, the stock is young here, 51.5% of it built since 2000, 67.7% of households sit in the top income bracket, high for this metro.

Binz. A cafe here reads 86.39% Best and 80.3% Typical across 15 scored addresses. There are 24.9 points between the best scored address at 88.2% and the weakest at 63.3%, so choosing Binz is the start of the decision rather than the end of it. The same cafe at the worst address in Binz is projected to fail 36.7% of the time over two or more years. Binz reads Great for a cafe, with a cafe sitting 20th among the 129 types ranked there. Binz as a place: the median age is 36.5 years, degree holders are unusually common here, 68.3% of adults, much of it is new build, 48.7% of the housing going up after 2000, on income it reaches the 66.0 percentile of this metro, it is a Middle-income area.

Gulfgate Riverview/Pine Valley. Take the Best figure in Gulfgate Riverview/Pine Valley and a cafe projects 85.71%. Take Typical and it projects 79.7%. 77 addresses here carry a score. Gulfgate Riverview/Pine Valley runs from 87.3% all the way down to 57.0%, 30.3 points. Saying you are opening in Gulfgate Riverview/Pine Valley says almost nothing until you say which address. For a cafe the weakest address in Gulfgate Riverview/Pine Valley projects failure within two or more years at 43.0%. Tiered Great for a cafe, Gulfgate Riverview/Pine Valley ranks a cafe 39th of the 129 types it ranks. On the ground, the building stock is old, with only 17.1% of it built after 2000, 32.8% of households sit in the top bracket, 11.6% of the housing is empty, 22.7% of people here are below the poverty line, the middle of the age range sits at 37.3 years.

Gulfton. A cafe in Gulfton is projected at 85.67% where the address is strong and 78.2% where it is ordinary, measured over 83 scored addresses. A 35.2 point spread, 88.2% to 53.0%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. At the weakest address in Gulfton a cafe carries a projected failure rate of 47.0% over two or more years. The file calls Gulfton Great for a cafe and places a cafe 25th among the 129 business types it ranks in Gulfton. As a place, on income it is at the 17.0 percentile, low for this metro, the area reads Working-income, the poverty rate is high for this metro at 29.1%, at 26.7% the top bracket is thin here, 20.6% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, below this metro.

A cafe in Dallas, place by place

City Center District. Across the 10 addresses scored here, a cafe projects 89.20% Best and 85.5% Typical. City Center District spans 16.2 points, 89.0% down to 72.8%. Two addresses a few streets apart here are not the same bet. The same cafe at the worst address in City Center District is projected to fail 27.2% of the time over two or more years. The file calls City Center District Great for a cafe and places a cafe 2nd among the 129 business types it ranks in City Center District.

Downtown Irving. Across the 24 addresses scored here, a cafe projects 87.10% Best and 79.5% Typical. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 58.4%, a spread of 30.6 points. This is a place where the address decides the outcome and the neighborhood barely narrows it. The same cafe at the worst address in Downtown Irving is projected to fail 41.6% of the time over two or more years. The file's own tier for a cafe in Downtown Irving is Great, with a cafe 2nd of the 129 types ranked in the place. What the surrounding blocks look like: it is a Working-income area, on income it is at the 24.7 percentile, low for this metro, almost nothing sits empty, with vacancy at 5.6% of homes, the building stock is old, with only 16.5% of it built after 2000, households are large, averaging 3.3 people.

Farmers Market District. Scored across 12 addresses, a cafe in Farmers Market District reaches 86.46% Best and 78.0% Typical. The gap from 89.0% to 54.3% is 34.7 points, wider than the gap between many whole metros. In Farmers Market District the address is the decision and the neighborhood name tells you little. For a cafe the weakest address in Farmers Market District projects failure within two or more years at 45.7%. In the file Farmers Market District is Good for a cafe, which puts a cafe 7th of the 129 types ranked there. What the surrounding blocks look like: the middle of the age range sits at 38.1 years, 93.8% of people are in work, the median journey to work is 27.4 minutes, on income it is at the 14.4 percentile, low for this metro, on income it sits in the Working band.

North Side. A cafe in North Side is projected at 85.79% where the address is strong and 80.3% where it is ordinary, measured over 18 scored addresses. The best scored address reaches 88.2% and the weakest 64.6%, a spread of 23.6 points, so the neighborhood narrows the search and the address is what still decides it. Put a cafe at the weakest address in North Side and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 35.4% of the time. The file calls North Side Good for a cafe and places a cafe 127th among the 129 business types it ranks in North Side. The place itself: poverty runs to 17.2%, above this metro, at 31.9% the top bracket is thin here, households are large, averaging 3.2 people, almost nothing sits empty, with vacancy at 7.4% of homes, the median commute runs 27.8 minutes.

Oak Lawn. The file scores 138 addresses for a cafe in Oak Lawn: 85.65% Best, 77.8% Typical. Inside Oak Lawn the scored addresses range 49.8% to 89.0%. 39.2 points of difference in one place is the clearest case there is for choosing the site and not the area. Put a cafe at the weakest address in Oak Lawn and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 50.2% of the time. In the file Oak Lawn is Good for a cafe, which puts a cafe 18th of the 129 types ranked there. Oak Lawn as a place: the median age is 35.8 years, employment comes to 95.3%, much of it is new build, 51.9% of the housing going up after 2000, 73.6% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, well above this metro, it sits near the top of this metro for income, at the 81.4 percentile.

A cafe in Orlando, place by place

South Orange. Take the Best figure in South Orange and a cafe projects 89.15%. Take Typical and it projects 85.2%. 10 addresses here carry a score. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 75.9%, a spread of 13.1 points, so the neighborhood narrows the search and the address is what still decides it. Move the same cafe to the weakest address in South Orange and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 24.1%. Tiered Great for a cafe, South Orange ranks a cafe 96th of the 129 types it ranks. The place itself: it is unusually well educated, with 58.8% of adults holding a bachelor's degree or more, at 10.4% the poverty rate sits below this metro, household size comes to 2.0 people, 47.5% of households sit in the top bracket, it sits at the 57.5 percentile for income in this metro.

Central Business District. For a cafe, Central Business District projects 84.6% Typical and 88.49% Best, over 12 scored addresses. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 76.8%, a spread of 12.2 points, so the neighborhood narrows the search and the address is what still decides it. A cafe at the weakest address in Central Business District has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 23.2%. Central Business District is Good for a cafe in the file, and 4th of the 129 types it ranks there is where a cafe lands. In Central Business District itself, 71.4% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, well above this metro, households run small here, 1.5 people, 66.7% of households sit in the top income bracket, high for this metro, the median age is a young 32.3 years, poverty comes to 10.8%.

Colonial Town Center. A cafe here reads 87.81% Best and 83.4% Typical across 16 scored addresses. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 73.6%, a spread of 15.4 points, so the neighborhood narrows the search and the address is what still decides it. Move the same cafe to the weakest address in Colonial Town Center and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 26.4%. Colonial Town Center is Good for a cafe in the file, and 124th of the 129 types it ranks there is where a cafe lands. As a place, vacancy comes to 10.4% of homes, the stock is young here, 35.2% of it built since 2000, the area reads Middle-income, the middle of the age range sits at 35.7 years, it sits at the 61.6 percentile for income in this metro.

Kirkman South. Take the Best figure in Kirkman South and a cafe projects 85.44%. Take Typical and it projects 80.0%. 11 addresses here carry a score. Kirkman South spans 15.5 points, 86.5% down to 71.0%. Two addresses a few streets apart here are not the same bet. For a cafe the weakest address in Kirkman South projects failure within two or more years at 29.0%. Kirkman South comes out Average for a cafe, and a cafe ranks 114th of the 129 types the file ranks in Kirkman South. Kirkman South as a place: income reaches only the 20.5 percentile here, on income it sits in the Working band, 14.9% of homes sit empty, high for this metro, only 36.3% of households are high income, degree holders are thinner on the ground here, 35.1% of adults.

Florida Center. A cafe here reads 85.35% Best and 77.7% Typical across 63 scored addresses. A 29.3 point spread, 89.0% to 59.7%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. The same cafe at the worst address in Florida Center is projected to fail 40.3% of the time over two or more years. In the file Florida Center is Average for a cafe, which puts a cafe 35th of the 129 types ranked there. What the surrounding blocks look like: on income it is at the 21.9 percentile, low for this metro, it is a Working-income area, poverty runs to 18.4%, above this metro, formal education is less common here than across the metro, at 26.8% of adults, only 35.2% of households are high income.

A cafe in Charlotte, place by place

North Charlotte. Here the projection for a cafe is 86.88% Best, 79.4% Typical, taken over 11 scored addresses. Inside North Charlotte the scored addresses range 62.4% to 89.0%. 26.6 points of difference in one place is the clearest case there is for choosing the site and not the area. At the worst address North Charlotte has, a cafe projects a 37.6% chance of closing inside two or more years. Tiered Great for a cafe, North Charlotte ranks a cafe 126th of the 129 types it ranks. On the ground, the median age is 34.5 years, on income it sits in the Middle band, 43.0% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, 48.2% of households are high income, it sits at the 49.0 percentile for income in this metro.

Uptown. Here the projection for a cafe is 86.84% Best, 78.4% Typical, taken over 16 scored addresses. Uptown runs from 89.0% all the way down to 54.8%, 34.2 points. Saying you are opening in Uptown says almost nothing until you say which address. For a cafe the weakest address in Uptown projects failure within two or more years at 45.2%. A cafe is Great in Uptown by the file's tier, and 8th of the 129 types it ranks in Uptown. The place itself: the stock is young here, 86.8% of it built since 2000, vacancy runs high at 14.0% of homes, which is what a thin retail street looks like in the data, 76.1% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, well above this metro, the area reads Middle-income, households are small, averaging 1.5 people, which reads as singles and couples rather than families.

University City South. Here the projection for a cafe is 86.77% Best, 79.9% Typical, taken over 24 scored addresses. The gap from 89.0% to 62.0% is 27.0 points, wider than the gap between many whole metros. In University City South the address is the decision and the neighborhood name tells you little. The weakest address in University City South carries a projected failure rate of 38.0% for a cafe over two or more years. University City South reads Great for a cafe, with a cafe sitting 6th among the 129 types ranked there. On the ground, on income it sits in the Low-Income band, the median age is a young 24.8 years, 48.6% of the housing went up after 2000, new for this metro, households run small here, 1.9 people, 43.4% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more.

Olde Whitehall. Scored across 18 addresses, a cafe in Olde Whitehall reaches 86.65% Best and 81.0% Typical. There are 19.0 points between the best scored address at 89.0% and the weakest at 70.0%, so choosing Olde Whitehall is the start of the decision rather than the end of it. A cafe at the weakest address in Olde Whitehall has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 30.0%. The file tiers Olde Whitehall Great for a cafe, and rates a cafe 25th of the 129 business types it ranks there. What the surrounding blocks look like: the median journey to work is 24.0 minutes, degree attainment sits at 47.4% of adults, median age comes to 33.9 years, employment stands at 93.8%, much of it is new build, 72.4% of the housing going up after 2000.

Barclay Downs. Here the projection for a cafe is 86.19% Best, 80.8% Typical, taken over 20 scored addresses. There are 17.2 points between the best scored address at 89.0% and the weakest at 71.8%, so choosing Barclay Downs is the start of the decision rather than the end of it. Move the same cafe to the weakest address in Barclay Downs and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 28.2%. In the file Barclay Downs is Good for a cafe, which puts a cafe 19th of the 129 types ranked there. On the ground, income here is at the 91.0 percentile, near the top of the metro, it is unusually well educated, with 80.1% of adults holding a bachelor's degree or more, the area reads Affluent-income, top-bracket households run to 73.6% here, the stock is young here, 49.9% of it built since 2000.

A cafe in Washington DC, place by place

Bethesda Center. A cafe here reads 90.08% Best and 88.5% Typical across 11 scored addresses. The band runs 2.5 points wide, 89.0% down to 86.5%. Choosing well inside Bethesda Center helps; on its own it does not decide the outcome. Measured at the weakest address in Bethesda Center, a cafe is projected to fail at 13.5% over two or more years. The file tiers Bethesda Center Great for a cafe, and rates a cafe 3rd of the 129 business types it ranks there.

U Street Corridor. Here the projection for a cafe is 90.08% Best, 87.9% Typical, taken over 13 scored addresses. U Street Corridor spans 16.2 points, 89.0% down to 72.8%. Two addresses a few streets apart here are not the same bet. The weakest address in U Street Corridor carries a projected failure rate of 27.2% for a cafe over two or more years. The file calls U Street Corridor Great for a cafe and places a cafe 24th among the 129 business types it ranks in U Street Corridor. As a place, it sits at the 56.6 percentile for income in this metro, poverty comes to 8.2%, the median commute runs 29.6 minutes, 77.3% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, high-income households come to 74.3%.

Penn Quarter. Take the Best figure in Penn Quarter and a cafe projects 90.01%. Take Typical and it projects 88.1%. 17 addresses here carry a score. Penn Quarter runs 89.0% at its best scored address and 84.8% at its weakest, 4.2 points. The block is worth getting right here, and it is not the whole decision. At the worst address Penn Quarter has, a cafe projects a 15.2% chance of closing inside two or more years. Penn Quarter reads Great for a cafe, with a cafe sitting 3rd among the 129 types ranked there. What the surrounding blocks look like: much of it is new build, 25.8% of the housing going up after 2000, 95.3% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, well above this metro, the commute is short, a median 25.3 minutes, at 10.1% the poverty rate is among the higher ones here, the middle of the age range sits at 42.5 years.

NoMa. Take the Best figure in NoMa and a cafe projects 89.98%. Take Typical and it projects 87.6%. 27 addresses here carry a score. NoMa spans 18.5 points, 89.0% down to 70.5%. Two addresses a few streets apart here are not the same bet. Move the same cafe to the weakest address in NoMa and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 29.5%. NoMa reads Great for a cafe, with a cafe sitting 3rd among the 129 types ranked there. What the surrounding blocks look like: much of it is new build, 69.8% of the housing going up after 2000, it is a Middle-income area, the poverty rate is high for this metro at 10.8%, vacancy is low, 6.6% of homes, at 1.7 people the average household is small, singles and couples more than families.

Judiciary Square. Across the 17 addresses scored here, a cafe projects 89.96% Best and 87.3% Typical. 89.0% at the best scored address against 70.5% at the weakest is 18.5 points of spread. The neighborhood gets you a shortlist and the address settles it. Measured at the weakest address in Judiciary Square, a cafe is projected to fail at 29.5% over two or more years. On the file's tiers Judiciary Square is Great for a cafe, and a cafe takes 1st place of the 129 types ranked in Judiciary Square. The place itself: median age comes to 32.1 years, employment stands at 100.0%, 70.7% of households sit in the top bracket, adults with a bachelor's degree or more come to 76.2%, 73.9% of the housing went up after 2000, new for this metro.

A cafe in Seattle, place by place

Uptown. A cafe in Uptown is projected at 89.56% where the address is strong and 84.4% where it is ordinary, measured over 11 scored addresses. Best to weakest in Uptown is 89.0% against 69.6%, 19.4 points apart, which is wide enough that the specific site is doing more work than the name of the area. The bottom of Uptown, its weakest address, projects a cafe failing 30.4% of the time within two or more years. On the file's tiers Uptown is Great for a cafe, and a cafe takes 5th place of the 129 types ranked in Uptown. On the ground, commutes come to a median 26.7 minutes, 71.9% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, employment stands at 98.0%, 69.7% of households sit in the top bracket, much of it is new build, 44.6% of the housing going up after 2000.

Bayside. A cafe here reads 89.39% Best and 85.0% Typical across 24 scored addresses. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 72.8%, a spread of 16.2 points, so the neighborhood narrows the search and the address is what still decides it. The bottom of Bayside, its weakest address, projects a cafe failing 27.2% of the time within two or more years. On the file's tiers Bayside is Great for a cafe, and a cafe takes 4th place of the 129 types ranked in Bayside.

Ballard. A cafe here reads 89.31% Best and 83.2% Typical across 26 scored addresses. A 40.1 point spread, 89.0% to 48.9%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. At the worst address Ballard has, a cafe projects a 51.1% chance of closing inside two or more years. A cafe is Great in Ballard by the file's tier, and 3rd of the 129 types it ranks in Ballard. On the ground, employment comes to 95.8%, 50.0% of the housing went up after 2000, new for this metro, it is a Middle-income area, households are small, averaging 1.7 people, which reads as singles and couples rather than families, 7.0% of people here are below the poverty line.

South Lake Union. A cafe here reads 89.21% Best and 81.6% Typical across 23 scored addresses. 36.0 points separate the best scored address at 89.0% from the weakest at 53.0%. A cafe at the wrong end of that range is a different proposition from one at the right end. At the worst address South Lake Union has, a cafe projects a 47.0% chance of closing inside two or more years. A cafe is Great in South Lake Union by the file's tier, and 2nd of the 129 types it ranks in South Lake Union. In South Lake Union itself, at 32.2 years the median age sits below this metro's, the commute is short, a median 23.9 minutes, 75.2% of households sit in the top bracket, 7.0% of homes sit vacant, employment stands at 98.9%.

Downtown. The file scores 87 addresses for a cafe in Downtown: 89.15% Best, 81.5% Typical. A 31.6 point spread, 89.0% to 57.4%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. For a cafe the weakest address in Downtown projects failure within two or more years at 42.6%. Rated Great for a cafe, Downtown puts a cafe 1st out of the 129 business types the file ranks there. As a place, the middle of the age range sits at 37.8 years, much of it is new build, 56.8% of the housing going up after 2000, 15.0% of homes sit empty, high for this metro, the poverty rate is high for this metro at 16.0%, the area reads Upper-Middle-income.

A cafe in Atlanta, place by place

Blandtown. A cafe in Blandtown is projected at 87.76% where the address is strong and 83.8% where it is ordinary, measured over 11 scored addresses. Blandtown spans 11.4 points, 88.2% down to 76.8%. Two addresses a few streets apart here are not the same bet. Move the same cafe to the weakest address in Blandtown and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 23.2%. Blandtown reads Great for a cafe, with a cafe sitting 118th among the 129 types ranked there. What the surrounding blocks look like: on income it lands at the 60.6 percentile of this metro, high-income households come to 64.7%, 11.2% of people here are below the poverty line, the median age is 36.9 years, 96.4% of people are in work.

Underwood Hills. 15 addresses in Underwood Hills carry a score for a cafe. Best projects 85.90% and Typical 80.0%. The best scored address reaches 88.2% and the weakest 64.2%, a spread of 24.0 points, so the neighborhood narrows the search and the address is what still decides it. For a cafe the weakest address in Underwood Hills projects failure within two or more years at 35.8%. On the file's tiers Underwood Hills is Great for a cafe, and a cafe takes 111th place of the 129 types ranked in Underwood Hills. As a place, households average 2.2 people, adults with a bachelor's degree or more come to 73.3%, the median commute runs 27.0 minutes, 10.6% of people here are below the poverty line, the middle of the age range sits at 37.0 years.

Pittsburgh. Across the 11 addresses scored here, a cafe projects 85.75% Best and 82.6% Typical. The best scored address reaches 87.3% and the weakest 77.7%, a narrow band of 9.6 points, so the address shifts the odds here without deciding them. The bottom of Pittsburgh, its weakest address, projects a cafe failing 22.3% of the time within two or more years. In the file Pittsburgh is Great for a cafe, which puts a cafe 106th of the 129 types ranked there. On the ground, 44.0% of homes date from after 2000, 90.6% of people are in work, median age comes to 35.5 years, poverty runs to 36.5%, above this metro, degree holders are thinner on the ground here, 33.0% of adults.

North Buckhead. The file scores 35 addresses for a cafe in North Buckhead: 85.61% Best, 79.6% Typical. The gap inside North Buckhead is 23.4 points, from 89.0% at the best scored address to 65.6% at the weakest. Getting the neighborhood right is half of it. A cafe at the weakest address in North Buckhead has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 34.4%. North Buckhead reads Great for a cafe, with a cafe sitting 107th among the 129 types ranked there. The place itself: the median commute runs 23.5 minutes, the middle of the age range sits at 38.1 years, employment stands at 97.1%, income here is at the 97.9 percentile, near the top of the metro, poverty is low here by this metro's standard, at 4.6%.

Downtown. A cafe here reads 85.44% Best and 76.1% Typical across 39 scored addresses. A 40.1 point spread, 89.0% to 48.9%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. Measured at the weakest address in Downtown, a cafe is projected to fail at 51.1% over two or more years. A cafe is Great in Downtown by the file's tier, and 112th of the 129 types it ranks in Downtown. What the surrounding blocks look like: at a median 20.7 minutes the journey to work is shorter than this metro's, income reaches only the 45.7 percentile here, the median age is 38.2 years, 56.9% of households are high income, 91.6% of people are in work.

A cafe in Los Angeles, place by place

Lacy. The file scores 10 addresses for a cafe in Lacy: 89.77% Best, 85.6% Typical. 89.0% at the best scored address against 71.8% at the weakest is 17.2 points of spread. The neighborhood gets you a shortlist and the address settles it. Move the same cafe to the weakest address in Lacy and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 28.2%. The file's own tier for a cafe in Lacy is Great, with a cafe 18th of the 129 types ranked in the place. The place itself: it is a Working-income area, poverty runs to 16.7%, above this metro, income reaches only the 28.8 percentile here, the median age is a young 31.1 years, commutes come to a median 26.2 minutes.

Koreatown (Garden Grove). A cafe here reads 89.54% Best and 87.3% Typical across 11 scored addresses. Across Koreatown (Garden Grove) the scored addresses run 85.7% to 89.0%, 3.3 points. The address tilts the odds; the neighborhood is still doing most of the work. Put a cafe at the weakest address in Koreatown (Garden Grove) and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 14.3% of the time. Tiered Great for a cafe, Koreatown (Garden Grove) ranks a cafe 5th of the 129 types it ranks.

Tropico. The file scores 17 addresses for a cafe in Tropico: 89.51% Best, 84.1% Typical. There are 22.6 points between the best scored address at 89.0% and the weakest at 66.4%, so choosing Tropico is the start of the decision rather than the end of it. A cafe at the weakest address in Tropico has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 33.6%. Tropico is Great for a cafe in the file, and 20th of the 129 types it ranks there is where a cafe lands. As a place, poverty runs to 16.2%, above this metro, income reaches only the 37.4 percentile here, degree holders are unusually common here, 43.3% of adults, the average household is 2.5 people, 54.5% of households are high income.

Larchmont. A cafe in Larchmont is projected at 89.41% where the address is strong and 86.0% where it is ordinary, measured over 10 scored addresses. A 6.7 point band, 89.0% to 82.3%, separates the best address in Larchmont from the weakest. That is a real edge and a modest one. Measured at the weakest address in Larchmont, a cafe is projected to fail at 17.7% over two or more years. On the file's tiers Larchmont is Great for a cafe, and a cafe takes 20th place of the 129 types ranked in Larchmont.

Grandview. 20 addresses in Grandview carry a score for a cafe. Best projects 89.08% and Typical 82.7%. A 27.5 point spread, 89.0% to 61.5%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. Put a cafe at the weakest address in Grandview and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 38.5% of the time. In the file Grandview is Great for a cafe, which puts a cafe 3rd of the 129 types ranked there. As a place, it is a Working-income area, on income it is at the 38.4 percentile, low for this metro, at 14.0% the poverty rate is among the higher ones here, 53.2% of households are high income, the middle of the age range sits at 42.2 years.

A cafe in New York City, place by place

Little Italy. Scored across 12 addresses, a cafe in Little Italy reaches 90.44% Best and 89.0% Typical. 0.8 points cover the whole of Little Italy, 89.0% at the top and 88.2% at the bottom. Pick the neighborhood carefully and the block hardly matters. The weakest address in Little Italy carries a projected failure rate of 11.8% for a cafe over two or more years. The file's own tier for a cafe in Little Italy is Great, with a cafe 2nd of the 129 types ranked in the place. On the ground, 93.1% of people are in work, empty homes run to 15.9%, which reads as a thin street in the data, 67.5% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, well above this metro, much of it is new build, 15.6% of the housing going up after 2000, on income it sits in the Upper-Middle band.

Cobble Hill. Scored across 15 addresses, a cafe in Cobble Hill reaches 90.42% Best and 88.7% Typical. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 86.5%, a narrow band of 2.5 points, so the address shifts the odds here without deciding them. The weakest address in Cobble Hill carries a projected failure rate of 13.5% for a cafe over two or more years. Rated Great for a cafe, Cobble Hill puts a cafe 3rd out of the 129 business types the file ranks there. The place itself: poverty is uncommon here, 4.9%, on income it sits in the Affluent band, top-bracket households run to 82.5% here, much of it is new build, 12.6% of the housing going up after 2000, at a median 37.2 minutes the journey to work is shorter than this metro's.

Garment District. Across the 34 addresses scored here, a cafe projects 90.40% Best and 88.6% Typical. The band runs 3.3 points wide, 89.0% down to 85.7%. Choosing well inside Garment District helps; on its own it does not decide the outcome. The same cafe at the worst address in Garment District is projected to fail 14.3% of the time over two or more years. The file's own tier for a cafe in Garment District is Great, with a cafe 5th of the 129 types ranked in the place. On the ground, high-income households come to 63.2%, the middle of the age range sits at 40.4 years, employment comes to 94.3%, much of it is new build, 43.1% of the housing going up after 2000, vacancy runs high at 16.2% of homes, which is what a thin retail street looks like in the data.

Carroll Gardens. For a cafe, Carroll Gardens projects 88.6% Typical and 90.39% Best, over 32 scored addresses. A 3.3 point band, 89.0% to 85.7%, separates the best address in Carroll Gardens from the weakest. That is a real edge and a modest one. The bottom of Carroll Gardens, its weakest address, projects a cafe failing 14.3% of the time within two or more years. For a cafe the file tiers Carroll Gardens Great; against the 129 types ranked in Carroll Gardens a cafe comes 5th. The place itself: commutes come to a median 38.7 minutes, the average household is 2.3 people, the middle of the age range sits at 40.1 years, 94.8% of people are in work, degree holders are unusually common here, 76.6% of adults.

Prospect Heights. Prospect Heights holds 37 scored addresses for a cafe, projecting 90.38% Best and 88.6% Typical. The band runs 3.3 points wide, 89.0% down to 85.7%. Choosing well inside Prospect Heights helps; on its own it does not decide the outcome. For a cafe the weakest address in Prospect Heights projects failure within two or more years at 14.3%. Prospect Heights comes out Great for a cafe, and a cafe ranks 4th of the 129 types the file ranks in Prospect Heights. In Prospect Heights itself, poverty is low here by this metro's standard, at 9.3%, it is a high-income pocket, with 73.8% of households in the top bracket, at 2.1 people the average household is small, singles and couples more than families, commutes come to a median 40.8 minutes, the middle of the age range sits at 36.3 years.

A cafe in San Francisco, place by place

Financial District. 10 addresses in Financial District carry a score for a cafe. Best projects 90.40% and Typical 88.3%. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 84.8%, a narrow band of 4.2 points, so the address shifts the odds here without deciding them. Measured at the weakest address in Financial District, a cafe is projected to fail at 15.2% over two or more years. Financial District comes out Great for a cafe, and a cafe ranks 3rd of the 129 types the file ranks in Financial District. What the surrounding blocks look like: on income it reaches the 97.3 percentile of this metro, at 1.3% post-2000 stock, the buildings here are older than most, 14.7% of homes sit empty, high for this metro, 89.6% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, well above this metro, it is an Affluent-income area.

Russian Hill. A cafe here reads 90.39% Best and 85.9% Typical across 17 scored addresses. A 36.5 point spread, 89.0% to 52.5%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. For a cafe the weakest address in Russian Hill projects failure within two or more years at 47.5%. Rated Great for a cafe, Russian Hill puts a cafe 2nd out of the 129 business types the file ranks there. Russian Hill as a place: at 4.0% post-2000 stock, the buildings here are older than most, at 8.2% the poverty rate sits below this metro, households are small, averaging 1.8 people, which reads as singles and couples rather than families, 81.0% of households sit in the top income bracket, high for this metro, the median age is 33.3 years.

Mission. Scored across 50 addresses, a cafe in Mission reaches 90.25% Best and 86.6% Typical. 27.0 points separate the best scored address at 89.0% from the weakest at 62.0%. A cafe at the wrong end of that range is a different proposition from one at the right end. Put a cafe at the weakest address in Mission and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 38.0% of the time. Rated Great for a cafe, Mission puts a cafe 2nd out of the 129 business types the file ranks there. In Mission itself, much of it is new build, 14.3% of the housing going up after 2000, 14.6% of homes sit empty, high for this metro, on income it sits in the Middle band, on income it reaches the 63.5 percentile of this metro, poverty comes to 12.2%.

Cow Hollow. For a cafe, Cow Hollow projects 84.5% Typical and 90.23% Best, over 10 scored addresses. Inside Cow Hollow the scored addresses range 57.9% to 89.0%. 31.1 points of difference in one place is the clearest case there is for choosing the site and not the area. For a cafe the weakest address in Cow Hollow projects failure within two or more years at 42.1%. A cafe is Great in Cow Hollow by the file's tier, and 3rd of the 129 types it ranks in Cow Hollow. As a place, it is an Affluent-income area, it is unusually well educated, with 82.2% of adults holding a bachelor's degree or more, it is a high-income pocket, with 84.8% of households in the top bracket, at 1.9 people the average household is small, singles and couples more than families, the building stock is old, with only 5.6% of it built after 2000.

South Beach. Across the 19 addresses scored here, a cafe projects 90.12% Best and 85.2% Typical. The gap from 89.0% to 52.0% is 37.0 points, wider than the gap between many whole metros. In South Beach the address is the decision and the neighborhood name tells you little. Put a cafe at the weakest address in South Beach and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 48.0% of the time. South Beach is Great for a cafe in the file, and 3rd of the 129 types it ranks there is where a cafe lands. In South Beach itself, top-bracket households run to 79.3% here, commutes come to a median 31.5 minutes, the median age is 37.6 years, 94.6% of people are in work, the stock is young here, 66.3% of it built since 2000.

A cafe in San Diego, place by place

Grant Hill. Take the Best figure in Grant Hill and a cafe projects 89.85%. Take Typical and it projects 85.3%. 10 addresses here carry a score. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 65.6%, a spread of 23.4 points, so the neighborhood narrows the search and the address is what still decides it. The bottom of Grant Hill, its weakest address, projects a cafe failing 34.4% of the time within two or more years. A cafe is Great in Grant Hill by the file's tier, and 2nd of the 129 types it ranks in Grant Hill. In Grant Hill itself, on income it sits in the Working band, degree holders are thinner on the ground here, 27.3% of adults, 16.0% of the housing went up after 2000, new for this metro, at 51.0% the top bracket is thin here, vacancy runs high at 7.7% of homes, which is what a thin retail street looks like in the data.

Core-Columbia. A cafe in Core-Columbia is projected at 89.47% where the address is strong and 85.1% where it is ordinary, measured over 10 scored addresses. There are 14.9 points between the best scored address at 89.0% and the weakest at 74.1%, so choosing Core-Columbia is the start of the decision rather than the end of it. The same cafe at the worst address in Core-Columbia is projected to fail 25.9% of the time over two or more years. For a cafe the file tiers Core-Columbia Great; against the 129 types ranked in Core-Columbia a cafe comes 2nd. The place itself: the median journey to work is 22.1 minutes, 10.1% of people here are below the poverty line, 96.6% of people are in work, much of it is new build, 71.3% of the housing going up after 2000, 18.2% of homes sit empty, high for this metro.

Golden Hill. Take the Best figure in Golden Hill and a cafe projects 87.40%. Take Typical and it projects 79.1%. 15 addresses here carry a score. There are 24.8 points between the best scored address at 89.0% and the weakest at 64.2%, so choosing Golden Hill is the start of the decision rather than the end of it. The same cafe at the worst address in Golden Hill is projected to fail 35.8% of the time over two or more years. The file's own tier for a cafe in Golden Hill is Great, with a cafe 2nd of the 129 types ranked in the place. In Golden Hill itself, households are small, averaging 1.8 people, which reads as singles and couples rather than families, almost nothing sits empty, with vacancy at 5.0% of homes, at 50.8% the top bracket is thin here, degree attainment sits at 48.5% of adults, the median age is 33.9 years.

Harborside. Here the projection for a cafe is 87.04% Best, 80.5% Typical, taken over 36 scored addresses. Harborside runs from 89.0% all the way down to 62.8%, 26.2 points. Saying you are opening in Harborside says almost nothing until you say which address. The bottom of Harborside, its weakest address, projects a cafe failing 37.2% of the time within two or more years. For a cafe the file tiers Harborside Great; against the 129 types ranked in Harborside a cafe comes 8th.

Kearny Mesa. A cafe in Kearny Mesa is projected at 86.34% where the address is strong and 77.6% where it is ordinary, measured over 161 scored addresses. 37.0 points separate the best scored address at 89.0% from the weakest at 52.0%. A cafe at the wrong end of that range is a different proposition from one at the right end. Down at the weakest address in Kearny Mesa the projected chance a cafe does not last two years is 48.0%. In the file Kearny Mesa is Great for a cafe, which puts a cafe 13th of the 129 types ranked there. What the surrounding blocks look like: the median journey to work is 25.0 minutes, much of it is new build, 75.4% of the housing going up after 2000, the area reads Middle-income, poverty is uncommon here, 6.9%, 9.0% of homes sit empty, high for this metro.

A cafe in Portland, place by place

Sunnyside. Across the 19 addresses scored here, a cafe projects 89.36% Best and 87.0% Typical. From 89.0% at the best scored address to 81.5% at the weakest is 7.5 points. Enough for the address to move the odds, not enough for it to settle them. Take the weakest address in Sunnyside and a cafe there is projected to close within two years 18.5% of the time. The file's own tier for a cafe in Sunnyside is Great, with a cafe 1st of the 129 types ranked in the place. In Sunnyside itself, 57.3% of households are high income, employment stands at 94.5%, on income it sits in the Middle band, almost nothing sits empty, with vacancy at 2.5% of homes, households run small here, 1.8 people.

Buckman. For a cafe, Buckman projects 81.0% Typical and 88.60% Best, over 37 scored addresses. Buckman runs from 89.0% all the way down to 58.4%, 30.6 points. Saying you are opening in Buckman says almost nothing until you say which address. The weakest address in Buckman carries a projected failure rate of 41.6% for a cafe over two or more years. On the file's tiers Buckman is Great for a cafe, and a cafe takes 1st place of the 129 types ranked in Buckman. Buckman as a place: at 14.7% the poverty rate is among the higher ones here, 6.3% of homes sit empty, high for this metro, high earners are scarce here, at 44.4% of households, the median age is 34.7 years, the median journey to work is 22.0 minutes.

Central Beaverton. A cafe here reads 88.15% Best and 82.1% Typical across 81 scored addresses. Central Beaverton runs from 89.0% all the way down to 56.1%, 32.9 points. Saying you are opening in Central Beaverton says almost nothing until you say which address. At the worst address Central Beaverton has, a cafe projects a 43.9% chance of closing inside two or more years. The file tiers Central Beaverton Great for a cafe, and rates a cafe 3rd of the 129 business types it ranks there. In Central Beaverton itself, commutes come to a median 25.0 minutes, much of it is new build, 30.8% of the housing going up after 2000, on income it reaches the 88.0 percentile of this metro, on income it sits in the Upper-Middle band, poverty is low here by this metro's standard, at 8.4%.

Goose Hollow. Take the Best figure in Goose Hollow and a cafe projects 87.53%. Take Typical and it projects 79.0%. 14 addresses here carry a score. Inside Goose Hollow the scored addresses range 62.4% to 89.0%. 26.6 points of difference in one place is the clearest case there is for choosing the site and not the area. The same cafe at the worst address in Goose Hollow is projected to fail 37.6% of the time over two or more years. Goose Hollow reads Great for a cafe, with a cafe sitting 2nd among the 129 types ranked there. In Goose Hollow itself, at 50.0% the top bracket is thin here, the median journey to work is 22.4 minutes, 18.8% of homes date from after 2000, the median age is 40.4 years, employment stands at 95.3%.

Woodlawn. Scored across 10 addresses, a cafe in Woodlawn reaches 86.82% Best and 77.7% Typical. 33.4 points separate the best scored address at 88.2% from the weakest at 54.8%. A cafe at the wrong end of that range is a different proposition from one at the right end. At the worst address Woodlawn has, a cafe projects a 45.2% chance of closing inside two or more years. In the file Woodlawn is Good for a cafe, which puts a cafe 1st of the 129 types ranked there. Woodlawn as a place: employment comes to 86.9%, the average household is 2.1 people, the median commute runs 25.8 minutes, high-income households come to 62.1%, the middle of the age range sits at 39.1 years.

A cafe in Boston, place by place

Wellington-Harrington. Take the Best figure in Wellington-Harrington and a cafe projects 89.79%. Take Typical and it projects 83.7%. 25 addresses here carry a score. A 40.6 point spread, 89.0% to 48.4%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. At the worst address Wellington-Harrington has, a cafe projects a 51.6% chance of closing inside two or more years. Rated Great for a cafe, Wellington-Harrington puts a cafe 1st out of the 129 business types the file ranks there. What the surrounding blocks look like: at 13.4% the poverty rate is among the higher ones here, people get to work quickly, a median commute of 27.0 minutes, vacancy comes to 6.7% of homes, median age comes to 31.4 years, income sits mid-table here, the 50.3 percentile.

Teele Square. Scored across 17 addresses, a cafe in Teele Square reaches 89.76% Best and 86.6% Typical. 89.0% at the best scored address against 67.4% at the weakest is 21.6 points of spread. The neighborhood gets you a shortlist and the address settles it. At the worst address Teele Square has, a cafe projects a 32.6% chance of closing inside two or more years. The file tiers Teele Square Great for a cafe, and rates a cafe 6th of the 129 business types it ranks there. As a place, 95.6% of people are in work, only 6.5% of the housing went up after 2000, on income it sits in the Middle band, almost nothing sits empty, with vacancy at 4.8% of homes, at 7.9% the poverty rate sits below this metro.

North End. Scored across 38 addresses, a cafe in North End reaches 89.66% Best and 83.2% Typical. 34.7 points separate the best scored address at 89.0% from the weakest at 54.3%. A cafe at the wrong end of that range is a different proposition from one at the right end. At the weakest address in North End a cafe carries a projected failure rate of 45.7% over two or more years. North End is Great for a cafe in the file, and 3rd of the 129 types it ranks there is where a cafe lands. In North End itself, much of it is new build, 28.2% of the housing going up after 2000, empty homes run to 12.5%, which reads as a thin street in the data, it sits low in this metro for income, at the 24.2 percentile, it is a Working-income area, poverty runs to 13.3%, above this metro.

Davis Square. For a cafe, Davis Square projects 85.6% Typical and 89.58% Best, over 34 scored addresses. 89.0% at the best scored address against 67.4% at the weakest is 21.6 points of spread. The neighborhood gets you a shortlist and the address settles it. Measured at the weakest address in Davis Square, a cafe is projected to fail at 32.6% over two or more years. In the file Davis Square is Great for a cafe, which puts a cafe 6th of the 129 types ranked there. As a place, median age comes to 32.2 years, commutes come to a median 33.4 minutes, employment comes to 97.4%, at 3.3% post-2000 stock, the buildings here are older than most, income here is at the 89.9 percentile, near the top of the metro.

South End. The file scores 105 addresses for a cafe in South End: 89.47% Best, 81.6% Typical. Inside South End the scored addresses range 48.0% to 89.0%. 41.0 points of difference in one place is the clearest case there is for choosing the site and not the area. Take the weakest address in South End and a cafe there is projected to close within two years 52.0% of the time. A cafe is Great in South End by the file's tier, and 1st of the 129 types it ranks in South End. As a place, the area reads Working-income, high earners are scarce here, at 52.6% of households, 58.4% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, below this metro, households average 1.9 people, the middle of the age range sits at 38.1 years.

A cafe in Minneapolis, place by place

Downtown West. The file scores 25 addresses for a cafe in Downtown West: 89.42% Best, 85.1% Typical. The gap from 89.0% to 62.0% is 27.0 points, wider than the gap between many whole metros. In Downtown West the address is the decision and the neighborhood name tells you little. Take the weakest address in Downtown West and a cafe there is projected to close within two years 38.0% of the time. For a cafe the file tiers Downtown West Great; against the 129 types ranked in Downtown West a cafe comes 1st. Downtown West as a place: the commute is short, a median 18.3 minutes, high-income households come to 58.2%, 54.2% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, employment stands at 92.4%, it sits at the 45.0 percentile for income in this metro.

Loring Park. A cafe in Loring Park is projected at 89.21% where the address is strong and 84.1% where it is ordinary, measured over 14 scored addresses. Loring Park spans 24.8 points, 89.0% down to 64.2%. Two addresses a few streets apart here are not the same bet. The same cafe at the worst address in Loring Park is projected to fail 35.8% of the time over two or more years. In the file Loring Park is Great for a cafe, which puts a cafe 2nd of the 129 types ranked there. On the ground, 57.4% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, vacancy runs high at 14.5% of homes, which is what a thin retail street looks like in the data, the poverty rate is high for this metro at 20.0%, income reaches only the 10.0 percentile here, it is a Working-income area.

Whittier. A cafe here reads 87.51% Best and 82.0% Typical across 32 scored addresses. There are 21.2 points between the best scored address at 89.0% and the weakest at 67.8%, so choosing Whittier is the start of the decision rather than the end of it. Move the same cafe to the weakest address in Whittier and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 32.2%. On the file's tiers Whittier is Great for a cafe, and a cafe takes 22nd place of the 129 types ranked in Whittier. What the surrounding blocks look like: only 26.7% of households are high income, the area reads Low-Income-income, formal education is less common here than across the metro, at 37.6% of adults, 7.7% of homes sit empty, high for this metro, at 28.4 years the median age sits below this metro's.

Kingfield. A cafe here reads 87.42% Best and 82.8% Typical across 34 scored addresses. Inside Kingfield the scored addresses range 59.2% to 88.2%. 29.0 points of difference in one place is the clearest case there is for choosing the site and not the area. At the worst address Kingfield has, a cafe projects a 40.8% chance of closing inside two or more years. Rated Great for a cafe, Kingfield puts a cafe 24th out of the 129 business types the file ranks there. Kingfield as a place: on income it sits in the Upper-Middle band, degree holders are unusually common here, 76.3% of adults, 67.9% of households sit in the top income bracket, high for this metro, almost nothing sits empty, with vacancy at 4.6% of homes, household size comes to 2.0 people.

Lowry Hill East. Across the 10 addresses scored here, a cafe projects 87.10% Best and 77.8% Typical. Lowry Hill East runs from 89.0% all the way down to 57.4%, 31.6 points. Saying you are opening in Lowry Hill East says almost nothing until you say which address. A cafe at the weakest address in Lowry Hill East has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 42.6%. The file tiers Lowry Hill East Great for a cafe, and rates a cafe 11th of the 129 business types it ranks there. As a place, high earners are scarce here, at 37.9% of households, 7.7% of homes sit empty, high for this metro, households run small here, 1.6 people, degree attainment sits at 64.6% of adults, the median age is 31.8 years.

A cafe in Baltimore, place by place

North Harford Road. Scored across 10 addresses, a cafe in North Harford Road reaches 85.94% Best and 77.2% Typical. Inside North Harford Road the scored addresses range 58.4% to 89.0%. 30.6 points of difference in one place is the clearest case there is for choosing the site and not the area. Measured at the weakest address in North Harford Road, a cafe is projected to fail at 41.6% over two or more years. The file's own tier for a cafe in North Harford Road is Great, with a cafe 1st of the 129 types ranked in the place. As a place, top-bracket households run to 57.7% here, the median journey to work is 32.3 minutes, adults with a bachelor's degree or more come to 38.4%, the average household is 2.4 people, median age comes to 38.8 years.

Curtis Bay. Across the 14 addresses scored here, a cafe projects 85.27% Best and 79.0% Typical. There are 23.0 points between the best scored address at 89.0% and the weakest at 66.0%, so choosing Curtis Bay is the start of the decision rather than the end of it. A cafe at the weakest address in Curtis Bay has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 34.0%. On the file's tiers Curtis Bay is Great for a cafe, and a cafe takes 13th place of the 129 types ranked in Curtis Bay.

Brooklyn. Here the projection for a cafe is 84.54% Best, 79.4% Typical, taken over 25 scored addresses. The gap inside Brooklyn is 19.5 points, from 88.2% at the best scored address to 68.7% at the weakest. Getting the neighborhood right is half of it. The same cafe at the worst address in Brooklyn is projected to fail 31.3% of the time over two or more years. The file calls Brooklyn Great for a cafe and places a cafe 109th among the 129 business types it ranks in Brooklyn. The place itself: 10.2% of homes sit vacant, the stock is young here, 10.3% of it built since 2000, degree holders are thinner on the ground here, 15.8% of adults, on income it sits in the Working band, income reaches only the 17.2 percentile here.

Canton. A cafe here reads 83.68% Best and 77.3% Typical across 16 scored addresses. A 29.3 point spread, 89.0% to 59.7%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. For a cafe the weakest address in Canton projects failure within two or more years at 40.3%. Canton is Great for a cafe in the file, and 54th of the 129 types it ranks there is where a cafe lands. Canton as a place: 80.4% of households sit in the top income bracket, high for this metro, it is an Affluent-income area, at 1.9 people the average household is small, singles and couples more than families, vacancy comes to 10.7% of homes, the middle of the age range sits at 39.3 years.

Cedmont. A cafe here reads 83.26% Best and 77.3% Typical across 10 scored addresses. The gap inside Cedmont is 19.0 points, from 89.0% at the best scored address to 70.0% at the weakest. Getting the neighborhood right is half of it. Move the same cafe to the weakest address in Cedmont and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 30.0%. The file tiers Cedmont Great for a cafe, and rates a cafe 31st of the 129 business types it ranks there.

A cafe in Tampa Bay, place by place

Tampa Heights. A cafe in Tampa Heights is projected at 86.93% where the address is strong and 81.3% where it is ordinary, measured over 17 scored addresses. The gap inside Tampa Heights is 22.2 points, from 88.2% at the best scored address to 66.0% at the weakest. Getting the neighborhood right is half of it. For a cafe the weakest address in Tampa Heights projects failure within two or more years at 34.0%. Rated Great for a cafe, Tampa Heights puts a cafe 28th out of the 129 business types the file ranks there. On the ground, on income it is at the 41.7 percentile, low for this metro, 37.4% of the housing went up after 2000, new for this metro, at 38.3% the top bracket is thin here, degree holders are thinner on the ground here, 38.0% of adults, 10.5% of the housing is empty.

North Hyde Park. Across the 20 addresses scored here, a cafe projects 86.09% Best and 80.1% Typical. There are 18.2 points between the best scored address at 88.2% and the weakest at 70.0%, so choosing North Hyde Park is the start of the decision rather than the end of it. The weakest address in North Hyde Park carries a projected failure rate of 30.0% for a cafe over two or more years. North Hyde Park comes out Good for a cafe, and a cafe ranks 46th of the 129 types the file ranks in North Hyde Park. On the ground, the median age is 42.0 years, employment comes to 97.3%, 77.9% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, well above this metro, it is an Upper-Middle-income area, it sits near the top of this metro for income, at the 88.3 percentile.

Plaza Terrace. A cafe here reads 84.20% Best and 77.8% Typical across 24 scored addresses. The gap inside Plaza Terrace is 20.4 points, from 88.2% at the best scored address to 67.8% at the weakest. Getting the neighborhood right is half of it. At the worst address Plaza Terrace has, a cafe projects a 32.2% chance of closing inside two or more years. The file calls Plaza Terrace Good for a cafe and places a cafe 95th among the 129 business types it ranks in Plaza Terrace. In Plaza Terrace itself, the poverty rate is high for this metro at 18.8%, formal education is less common here than across the metro, at 21.9% of adults, the area reads Low-Income-income, at 30.2% the top bracket is thin here, the building stock is old, with only 16.6% of it built after 2000.

Riverbend. A cafe in Riverbend is projected at 84.18% where the address is strong and 78.5% where it is ordinary, measured over 13 scored addresses. Best to weakest in Riverbend is 85.7% against 69.6%, 16.1 points apart, which is wide enough that the specific site is doing more work than the name of the area. Move the same cafe to the weakest address in Riverbend and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 30.4%. On the file's tiers Riverbend is Average for a cafe, and a cafe takes 5th place of the 129 types ranked in Riverbend. Riverbend as a place: high earners are scarce here, at 41.3% of households, getting to work takes a median 31.0 minutes, longer than most of this metro, the average household runs 2.7 people, large for this metro, the median age is 37.8 years, 9.8% of homes sit vacant.

Seminole Heights. Take the Best figure in Seminole Heights and a cafe projects 83.97%. Take Typical and it projects 75.8%. 19 addresses here carry a score. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 56.1%, a spread of 32.9 points. This is a place where the address decides the outcome and the neighborhood barely narrows it. Measured at the weakest address in Seminole Heights, a cafe is projected to fail at 43.9% over two or more years. The file tiers Seminole Heights Average for a cafe, and rates a cafe 5th of the 129 business types it ranks there. As a place, it sits low in this metro for income, at the 35.0 percentile, formal education is less common here than across the metro, at 34.4% of adults, at 41.2% the top bracket is thin here, the median commute runs 27.7 minutes, median age comes to 37.6 years.

A cafe in Phoenix, place by place

Dobson Ranch. Dobson Ranch holds 77 scored addresses for a cafe, projecting 82.45% Best and 75.6% Typical. A 39.2 point spread, 89.0% to 49.8%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. Measured at the weakest address in Dobson Ranch, a cafe is projected to fail at 50.2% over two or more years. Dobson Ranch comes out Great for a cafe, and a cafe ranks 26th of the 129 types the file ranks in Dobson Ranch. In Dobson Ranch itself, degree attainment sits at 42.0% of adults, at 3.8% post-2000 stock, the buildings here are older than most, the area reads Middle-income, at 4.9% of homes, empty property is rare here, median age comes to 41.1 years.

Central City. The file scores 606 addresses for a cafe in Central City: 82.10% Best, 75.2% Typical. The gap from 89.0% to 48.9% is 40.1 points, wider than the gap between many whole metros. In Central City the address is the decision and the neighborhood name tells you little. The bottom of Central City, its weakest address, projects a cafe failing 51.1% of the time within two or more years. Rated Great for a cafe, Central City puts a cafe 23rd out of the 129 business types the file ranks there.

Pepperwood. Scored across 16 addresses, a cafe in Pepperwood reaches 81.65% Best and 76.4% Typical. Best to weakest in Pepperwood is 89.0% against 66.0%, 23.0 points apart, which is wide enough that the specific site is doing more work than the name of the area. The bottom of Pepperwood, its weakest address, projects a cafe failing 34.0% of the time within two or more years. The file's own tier for a cafe in Pepperwood is Good, with a cafe 36th of the 129 types ranked in the place. Pepperwood as a place: much of it is new build, 34.1% of the housing going up after 2000, the area reads Middle-income, 5.6% of homes sit vacant, 67.0% of households are high income, the median commute runs 22.2 minutes.

Reed Park. A cafe in Reed Park is projected at 81.18% where the address is strong and 74.0% where it is ordinary, measured over 40 scored addresses. The gap from 89.0% to 53.4% is 35.6 points, wider than the gap between many whole metros. In Reed Park the address is the decision and the neighborhood name tells you little. Down at the weakest address in Reed Park the projected chance a cafe does not last two years is 46.6%. Rated Good for a cafe, Reed Park puts a cafe 25th out of the 129 business types the file ranks there. In Reed Park itself, median age comes to 31.6 years, the median journey to work is 27.7 minutes, employment stands at 95.3%, poverty runs to 19.8%, above this metro, formal education is less common here than across the metro, at 11.4% of adults.

Superstition Springs. A cafe here reads 79.96% Best and 71.9% Typical across 86 scored addresses. The gap from 89.0% to 50.2% is 38.8 points, wider than the gap between many whole metros. In Superstition Springs the address is the decision and the neighborhood name tells you little. Put a cafe at the weakest address in Superstition Springs and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 49.8% of the time. For a cafe the file tiers Superstition Springs Good; against the 129 types ranked in Superstition Springs a cafe comes 31st. On the ground, 96.3% of people are in work, vacancy runs high at 14.5% of homes, which is what a thin retail street looks like in the data, 27.4% of the housing went up after 2000, new for this metro, it is a Middle-income area, income reaches only the 40.6 percentile here.

A cafe in St. Louis, place by place

Benton Park. 13 addresses in Benton Park carry a score for a cafe. Best projects 85.14% and Typical 77.4%. The gap from 89.0% to 58.4% is 30.6 points, wider than the gap between many whole metros. In Benton Park the address is the decision and the neighborhood name tells you little. Down at the weakest address in Benton Park the projected chance a cafe does not last two years is 41.6%. Benton Park comes out Great for a cafe, and a cafe ranks 7th of the 129 types the file ranks in Benton Park.

Tower Grove East. Scored across 16 addresses, a cafe in Tower Grove East reaches 85.13% Best and 82.0% Typical. Tower Grove East spans 11.8 points, 89.0% down to 77.2%. Two addresses a few streets apart here are not the same bet. At the weakest address in Tower Grove East a cafe carries a projected failure rate of 22.8% over two or more years. The file tiers Tower Grove East Great for a cafe, and rates a cafe 21st of the 129 business types it ranks there.

Benton Park West. Here the projection for a cafe is 84.87% Best, 79.6% Typical, taken over 12 scored addresses. 89.0% at the best scored address against 69.2% at the weakest is 19.8 points of spread. The neighborhood gets you a shortlist and the address settles it. A cafe at the weakest address in Benton Park West has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 30.8%. Benton Park West is Great for a cafe in the file, and 102nd of the 129 types it ranks there is where a cafe lands.

Walnut Park West. Take the Best figure in Walnut Park West and a cafe projects 84.66%. Take Typical and it projects 78.3%. 11 addresses here carry a score. The gap inside Walnut Park West is 24.0 points, from 87.3% at the best scored address to 63.3% at the weakest. Getting the neighborhood right is half of it. At the weakest address in Walnut Park West a cafe carries a projected failure rate of 36.7% over two or more years. Tiered Great for a cafe, Walnut Park West ranks a cafe 3rd of the 129 types it ranks.

Gravois Park. Here the projection for a cafe is 83.46% Best, 79.0% Typical, taken over 11 scored addresses. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 72.3%, a spread of 16.7 points, so the neighborhood narrows the search and the address is what still decides it. A cafe at the weakest address in Gravois Park has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 27.7%. Gravois Park comes out Great for a cafe, and a cafe ranks 7th of the 129 types the file ranks in Gravois Park.

Where to open a cafe in Philadelphia

Philadelphia ranks second of the 24 metros for a cafe and carries 127 ranked places for it. East Kensington comes first in the file, at 89.95% Best and 88.1% Typical, across 30 scored addresses. East Kensington is not interchangeable with the rest: on income it reaches the 56.8 percentile of this metro, 10.4% of homes sit empty, high for this metro, the median age is 34.7 years.

A metro absent from the table carries no ranked place for a cafe, either because too few of its addresses are scored or because the places that would rank are not somewhere a business can open. We would rather leave a metro out than rank it on thin coverage.

Why this list differs from other "best cities for a cafe" lists. There is exactly one question behind this ranking: on Best in each metro, what is the projected chance a cafe is still in business two or more years after opening. The answer comes from 570,000+ historical business outcomes and the location factors around each scored address. What it is not is a ranking of which cities enjoy cafes, which have the busiest downtown sidewalks, which are cheapest to live in, which are growing fastest, or which already have the most cafes operating. Rankings built on any of those will name other cities, correctly, because they are answering other questions. Read them for where the concept is in fashion. Read this one for where a lease is most likely to still be paying for itself in two years.

The most important factor in choosing a location is the Revenue Capture Score. It is StreetSpring's own measure of the revenue a business can capture at an address, and it measures only that: it is not a revenue forecast for your business, and we publish no revenue, cost or margin figure anywhere on this site. It is the factor that matters most when you are choosing where to put a cafe, and it is ours, which is the point: we will not hand you a ranking of the inputs you can buy from anyone (rent, demographics, walkability, how many competitors sit on the block), because a ranking of purchasable inputs is a recipe and not a methodology. A pair of addresses a short walk apart can sit either side of the spread you see in the table above, and the Revenue Capture Score is the largest part of why.

What this page will not tell you

This page does not give you a startup budget, a staffing plan, a revenue forecast or a license checklist, and it does not estimate rent. We hold none of that data, and a business plan built on a number somebody invented for you is the plan that fails underwriting. What we hold is the projected chance a cafe lasts two or more years at a specific address, and that is what the location section above is built from.

Questions founders actually ask

How to start a cafe?

Starting a cafe is a sequence of decisions and the order matters: the address is the one you cannot undo, so get it right first.

Which city is best for opening a cafe?

Of the 24 US metros we rank, Chicago carries the highest projected chance that a cafe lasts two or more years on Best, at 84.3%, and St. Louis the lowest at 74.0%. The gap between the best and the weakest address inside one metro is 41.0 points, against 10.3 points between the best and the worst metro, so the city is not the decision this data is sharp enough to make. The block is.

Does a higher score mean a cafe will make more money there?

No. The figure is the projected chance the business lasts two or more years at that address. It is not a revenue, margin or profit estimate, and we hold no revenue or cost data at all.

What is the most important factor in choosing a location?

The Revenue Capture Score, StreetSpring's own measure of the revenue a business can capture at an address. It is the factor that matters most in choosing where to put a cafe.

Source, method and reuse

Every figure on this page is read from StreetSpring Survivability Datasets 2026, version 2026.11.04, as of 2026-11-04, filed at https://streetspring.com/resources/data/national-survivability-scores-2026.csv . Method: https://streetspring.com/resources/tutorial/aeo-methodology . License CC BY 4.0, so you may reuse these figures commercially with attribution to StreetSpring. Full terms: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ .

Cite it as: StreetSpring (2026). StreetSpring Survivability Datasets 2026, version 2026.11.04. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22287996.

StreetSpring scores 500+ business types; a figure here is averaged across the price points the tool scores separately for this type.