How to Start a Bakery: The Decisions, in the Order They Bind

Starting a bakery is a sequence of decisions and the order matters: the address is the one you cannot undo, so get it right first.

What we hold is the projected chance a bakery lasts two or more years at a specific address, which across the 24 metros we rank runs from 59.4% to 75.4% Typical.

A StreetSpring score is the projected chance that a specific business type lasts two or more years at a specific address, as a percentage. It is not a rating, not a raw model output and not a revenue estimate. It is built from 570,000+ observed business outcomes and the location factors around each scored address.

On this page, Best is the average chance of lasting two or more years for the better of two addresses picked at random in the place, in a smaller space. Typical is the average address, and Worst is the same for the worse of two addresses, in a larger space.

The short answer on location. Across the 24 US metros we rank for a bakery, the projected chance one lasts two or more years on Best runs from 66.4% in New York City to 82.8% in Charlotte. At a typical address New York City reads 59.4% and Charlotte reads 75.4%. Inside Charlotte alone the gap between the best and the weakest scored address is 40.6 points, which is wider than the 16.4 point gap between the best and the worst metro. The city is the coarse decision. The block is the real one.

Where in the sequence a bakery is actually decided

A bakery is opened in an order, and the order matters more than the length of the list. The first three decisions, the concept, the metro and the block, bind the rest. Everything after them, the approvals included, is downstream of an address already signed and mostly reversible. That makes the block the final irreversible choice, almost always made without data, and the only one this page can put published evidence behind.

Because the method is identical whatever you are opening, it is written once, here: the order the decisions bind when you open a local business. Everything after this point is true of this business type and no other.

How much does the metro matter for a bakery? Strongest ranked metro to weakest, the Best figure for a bakery moves 16.4 points. That gap is the 13th widest of the 146 types we score. For a bakery the metro genuinely matters. Few of the types we score are moved this much by which metro they open in, so a founder who can choose the city should treat that choice as a real one rather than a formality. Inside one metro, best address to weakest, the gap is 40.6 points. Whatever this type's place on the league table, the block outweighs the city.

What the location section of a bakery business plan has to prove

Seven sections make up a bakery business plan and you are the sole source for six: the concept, how it operates, the numbers you are putting your name to, the regulatory path in your city, the downside and the ask. The seventh is where the business will be. Most plans give it a paragraph about an area the founder has already decided on. It is the section a landlord opens first and the one a lender comes back to, and uniquely among the seven it can be argued from published evidence. That is what this page supplies.

One page carries the method, since it does not vary by business type: how to write a local business plan. The rest of this page is the part that only applies to this one.

Why there is no cost figure on this page

There is no startup cost for a bakery on this page, because we hold no cost data, and a page that has never seen your lease is in no position to quote you one. What we can tell you is what the spending is up against. The best and the weakest scored address for a bakery in Charlotte are 40.6 points apart on projected two-year survival, a wider gap than the one between the strongest and weakest metro in the country. Identical money at a worse address buys worse odds.

Which makes the better question not what a bakery costs, but what the rent you can afford actually buys in odds, and where it buys the most of them. That question has an answer below.

What follows below is specific to this business type. The method behind it does not change from one type to the next, so it sits on its own page: what we will not guess for you.

What survival tells you about profit, and what it does not

This page prints no profit, margin or revenue figure for a bakery. We hold none. It prints the floor underneath all of them instead: the projected chance a bakery is still open after two or more years at a given address, moving 40.6 points from the best address in a metro to the weakest. A closed bakery returns nothing at all, which is why a site low on the table that follows is not forecasting a worse margin but forecasting on top of a lottery ticket.

The approach is common to every business type we score, so it is kept in one place: what a survival score does not tell you. From here on, the page is specific to this type.

Where a bakery is projected to last longest, and where it is not

Ranked on Best. Typical is the mean across the scored addresses in each metro.

The 24 metros we rank for a bakery

Best and Worst are the average results for the better and the worse of two addresses picked at random in the metro: a weighted average of every scored location in which the best locations count the most for Best and the weakest count the most for Worst. Typical is the average address. Best is shown for a smaller space (half the standard size) and Worst for a larger one (half again as large), at the metro's median asking rent, using the same rent rule as our tool; Typical is at the market rent.

Where the ranking ties, say so. Published figures for a business type are rounded to one decimal (two where a table needs it), so several places can print the same value. Charlotte is the only metro at the top Best figure, 2.2 points ahead of Dallas. Further down, 2 metros share 74.0% (rank 13=), 2 metros share 71.4% (rank 18=) and 2 metros share 69.6% (rank 22=). Where two metros print the same figure on Best, the data does not separate them, and the order between them is the file's tie-break, not a finding. Use the typical-address column when you need to separate places that tie on Best. The range the figures sit in is the file's, not a scale we chose for this page: in Charlotte, at the local market rent, the best scored address for a bakery reads 89.0% and the weakest 48.4%, and a metro's Best figure is an average over its scored addresses, not the best of them.

Inside Charlotte, which is the decision that matters

The metro layer above is the coarse one. Charlotte carries 45 ranked neighborhoods for a bakery, and these are the file's top five, in the file's own order:

Best and Worst are the average results for the better and the worse of two addresses picked at random in the place: a weighted average of every scored location in which the best locations count the most for Best and the weakest count the most for Worst. Typical is the average address. Best is shown for a smaller space (half the standard size) and Worst for a larger one (half again as large), at the metro's median asking rent, using the same rent rule as our tool; Typical is at the market rent.

North Charlotte is the only ranked neighborhood at the top Best figure.

North Charlotte. 48.2% of households sit in the top bracket, income sits mid-table here, the 49.0 percentile, 7.7% of homes sit vacant. Henderson Circle. 98.4% of people are in work, household size comes to 2.4 people, it is a Working-income area. College Downs. Formal education is less common here than across the metro, at 32.8% of adults, at 15.3% the poverty rate is among the higher ones here, high earners are scarce here, at 41.6% of households. Whiteoak. 59.6% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, well above this metro, top-bracket households run to 63.5% here, households average 2.3 people. Olde Whitehall. Degree attainment sits at 47.4% of adults, much of it is new build, 72.4% of the housing going up after 2000, the area reads Middle-income.

The five come apart on both columns. That makes the Best figure informative in this metro rather than a restatement of one shared value. A place is ranked only once ten or more of its addresses are scored. A second rule removes places where a bakery cannot open at all, among them parks, federal campuses and a shopping center in a different state; their scores stand, their ranks do not exist, and the counts above already exclude them. A short list is therefore a whole one.

What the figures above do and do not tell you. What they tell you, for a bakery, is which of the 24 metros we rank offer the best and the worst projected two-year survival, and how far apart the strongest and weakest address inside one metro sit. What they do not tell you is that a bakery in Charlotte will beat one in New York City. The metro is the coarse layer: the spread within a single metro, 40.6 points between its best and weakest scored address, is wider than the 16.4 points separating the best metro from the worst on Best. This data is sharp enough to choose a block, not a city. It measures nothing about your concept, your operator, your menu or your lease terms, and neither does any other model.

The best blocks for a bakery, metro by metro

The section above was Charlotte. This one is every other ranked metro for a bakery, because a national leaderboard is of limited use to a founder who already knows which city they are opening in. The order within each metro comes from the file. Places with fewer than ten scored addresses carry no rank and so do not appear, which makes a short row complete.

Best and Worst are the average results for the better and the worse of two addresses picked at random in the place: a weighted average of every scored location in which the best locations count the most for Best and the weakest count the most for Worst. Typical is the average address. Best is shown for a smaller space (half the standard size) and Worst for a larger one (half again as large), at the metro's median asking rent, using the same rent rule as our tool; Typical is at the market rent.

A bakery in Dallas, place by place

North Side. Here the projection for a bakery is 88.4% Best, 82.5% Typical, taken over 18 scored addresses. Best to weakest in North Side is 89.0% against 70.0%, 19.0 points apart, which is wide enough that the specific site is doing more work than the name of the area. The bottom of North Side, its weakest address, projects a bakery failing 30.0% of the time within two or more years. Tiered Great for a bakery, North Side ranks a bakery 95th of the 129 types it ranks. The place itself: the poverty rate is high for this metro at 17.2%, only 31.9% of households are high income, the average household runs 3.2 people, large for this metro, almost nothing sits empty, with vacancy at 7.4% of homes, the median commute runs 27.8 minutes.

Woodhaven. Across the 32 addresses scored here, a bakery projects 88.2% Best and 82.5% Typical. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 58.4%, a spread of 30.6 points. This is a place where the address decides the outcome and the neighborhood barely narrows it. Move the same bakery to the weakest address in Woodhaven and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 41.6%. In the file Woodhaven is Great for a bakery, which puts a bakery 20th of the 129 types ranked there. The place itself: 11.8% of homes sit empty, high for this metro, the average household is 2.4 people, employment stands at 93.0%, the median journey to work is 26.4 minutes, the middle of the age range sits at 34.5 years.

Central Arlington. A bakery here reads 87.4% Best and 81.4% Typical across 63 scored addresses. Inside Central Arlington the scored addresses range 63.3% to 89.0%. 25.7 points of difference in one place is the clearest case there is for choosing the site and not the area. At the weakest address in Central Arlington a bakery carries a projected failure rate of 36.7% over two or more years. The file calls Central Arlington Good for a bakery and places a bakery 19th among the 129 business types it ranks in Central Arlington. As a place, income reaches only the 18.6 percentile here, it is a Working-income area, the poverty rate is high for this metro at 18.2%, only 18.2% of the housing went up after 2000, high earners are scarce here, at 39.2% of households.

Ridglea North. Across the 15 addresses scored here, a bakery projects 87.0% Best and 80.1% Typical. There are 23.0 points between the best scored address at 89.0% and the weakest at 66.0%, so choosing Ridglea North is the start of the decision rather than the end of it. Down at the weakest address in Ridglea North the projected chance a bakery does not last two years is 34.0%. Rated Good for a bakery, Ridglea North puts a bakery 90th out of the 129 business types the file ranks there. As a place, it sits low in this metro for income, at the 27.8 percentile, households run small here, 2.1 people, at a median age of 41.4 years this is an older area than most of the metro, high earners are scarce here, at 40.7% of households, only 21.0% of the housing went up after 2000.

East Arlington. Scored across 261 addresses, a bakery in East Arlington reaches 86.4% Best and 78.7% Typical. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 53.0%, a spread of 36.0 points. This is a place where the address decides the outcome and the neighborhood barely narrows it. Move the same bakery to the weakest address in East Arlington and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 47.0%. A bakery is Good in East Arlington by the file's tier, and 30th of the 129 types it ranks in East Arlington. On the ground, 24.9% of the housing went up after 2000, on income it is at the 7.2 percentile, low for this metro, it is a Low-Income-income area, degree holders are thinner on the ground here, 18.1% of adults, at 18.4% the poverty rate is among the higher ones here.

A bakery in Atlanta, place by place

Blandtown. A bakery in Blandtown is projected at 89.8% where the address is strong and 88.2% where it is ordinary, measured over 11 scored addresses. Across Blandtown the scored addresses run 84.0% to 89.0%, 5.0 points. The address tilts the odds; the neighborhood is still doing most of the work. The same bakery at the worst address in Blandtown is projected to fail 16.0% of the time over two or more years. Blandtown comes out Great for a bakery, and a bakery ranks 19th of the 129 types the file ranks in Blandtown. On the ground, median age comes to 36.9 years, employment stands at 96.4%, the stock is young here, 83.3% of it built since 2000, 16.6% of homes sit empty, high for this metro, it is a Middle-income area.

Grant Park. Take the Best figure in Grant Park and a bakery projects 89.5%. Take Typical and it projects 86.0%. 22 addresses here carry a score. Best to weakest in Grant Park is 89.0% against 69.2%, 19.8 points apart, which is wide enough that the specific site is doing more work than the name of the area. A bakery at the weakest address in Grant Park has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 30.8%. In the file Grant Park is Great for a bakery, which puts a bakery 13th of the 129 types ranked there. On the ground, vacancy comes to 10.2% of homes, 71.4% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, employment stands at 94.6%, median age comes to 36.4 years, it sits near the top of this metro for income, at the 85.1 percentile.

Underwood Hills. A bakery here reads 88.9% Best and 81.3% Typical across 15 scored addresses. The gap from 89.0% to 56.1% is 32.9 points, wider than the gap between many whole metros. In Underwood Hills the address is the decision and the neighborhood name tells you little. A bakery at the weakest address in Underwood Hills has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 43.9%. On the file's tiers Underwood Hills is Great for a bakery, and a bakery takes 14th place of the 129 types ranked in Underwood Hills. In Underwood Hills itself, 44.5% of the housing went up after 2000, the average household is 2.2 people, adults with a bachelor's degree or more come to 73.3%, the median journey to work is 27.0 minutes, 10.6% of people here are below the poverty line.

Old Fourth Ward. A bakery here reads 88.7% Best and 84.3% Typical across 13 scored addresses. Old Fourth Ward spans 17.2 points, 89.0% down to 71.8%. Two addresses a few streets apart here are not the same bet. A bakery at the weakest address in Old Fourth Ward has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 28.2%. In the file Old Fourth Ward is Great for a bakery, which puts a bakery 57th of the 129 types ranked there. As a place, 64.6% of households are high income, on income it lands at the 58.5 percentile of this metro, the middle of the age range sits at 34.7 years, the median commute runs 27.4 minutes, 10.5% of people here are below the poverty line.

Lindridge/Martin Manor. Here the projection for a bakery is 88.7% Best, 83.5% Typical, taken over 10 scored addresses. Best to weakest in Lindridge/Martin Manor is 89.0% against 72.8%, 16.2 points apart, which is wide enough that the specific site is doing more work than the name of the area. Put a bakery at the weakest address in Lindridge/Martin Manor and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 27.2% of the time. Lindridge/Martin Manor reads Great for a bakery, with a bakery sitting 15th among the 129 types ranked there.

A bakery in San Antonio, place by place

Dignowity Hill. Scored across 10 addresses, a bakery in Dignowity Hill reaches 84.1% Best and 77.7% Typical. There are 23.1 points between the best scored address at 88.2% and the weakest at 65.1%, so choosing Dignowity Hill is the start of the decision rather than the end of it. A bakery at the weakest address in Dignowity Hill has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 34.9%. In the file Dignowity Hill is Great for a bakery, which puts a bakery 96th of the 129 types ranked there. What the surrounding blocks look like: the middle of the age range sits at 37.0 years, 28.3% of the housing went up after 2000, new for this metro, empty homes run to 16.3%, which reads as a thin street in the data, the area reads Middle-income, the poverty rate is high for this metro at 18.1%.

Quintana Community. Scored across 33 addresses, a bakery in Quintana Community reaches 79.1% Best and 74.0% Typical. Inside Quintana Community the scored addresses range 55.2% to 88.2%. 33.0 points of difference in one place is the clearest case there is for choosing the site and not the area. Put a bakery at the weakest address in Quintana Community and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 44.8% of the time. Quintana Community comes out Good for a bakery, and a bakery ranks 23rd of the 129 types the file ranks in Quintana Community. As a place, the median journey to work is 29.1 minutes, median age comes to 38.4 years, 93.3% of people are in work, the poverty rate is high for this metro at 31.1%, on income it is at the 8.7 percentile, low for this metro.

Shearer Hills/Ridgeview. Here the projection for a bakery is 79.0% Best, 72.5% Typical, taken over 41 scored addresses. Shearer Hills/Ridgeview runs from 88.2% all the way down to 50.2%, 38.0 points. Saying you are opening in Shearer Hills/Ridgeview says almost nothing until you say which address. Put a bakery at the weakest address in Shearer Hills/Ridgeview and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 49.8% of the time. On the file's tiers Shearer Hills/Ridgeview is Good for a bakery, and a bakery takes 125th place of the 129 types ranked in Shearer Hills/Ridgeview. As a place, people get to work quickly, a median commute of 20.7 minutes, formal education is less common here than across the metro, at 32.9% of adults, poverty runs to 15.0%, above this metro, the middle of the age range sits at 41.6 years, vacancy comes to 8.7% of homes.

Monte Vista. Here the projection for a bakery is 78.0% Best, 74.1% Typical, taken over 14 scored addresses. The gap from 83.2% to 56.6% is 26.6 points, wider than the gap between many whole metros. In Monte Vista the address is the decision and the neighborhood name tells you little. For a bakery the weakest address in Monte Vista projects failure within two or more years at 43.4%. Monte Vista comes out Average for a bakery, and a bakery ranks 117th of the 129 types the file ranks in Monte Vista. Monte Vista as a place: the median age is 34.7 years, employment stands at 91.9%, vacancy runs high at 17.6% of homes, which is what a thin retail street looks like in the data, degree holders are unusually common here, 65.1% of adults, only 7.1% of the housing went up after 2000.

The Dominion. A bakery in The Dominion is projected at 77.8% where the address is strong and 72.1% where it is ordinary, measured over 33 scored addresses. 32.2 points separate the best scored address at 86.5% from the weakest at 54.3%. A bakery at the wrong end of that range is a different proposition from one at the right end. Move the same bakery to the weakest address in The Dominion and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 45.7%. In the file The Dominion is Average for a bakery, which puts a bakery 38th of the 129 types ranked there. What the surrounding blocks look like: getting to work takes a median 30.0 minutes, longer than most of this metro, household size comes to 2.2 people, 9.1% of homes sit vacant, employment comes to 98.4%, the stock is young here, 68.5% of it built since 2000.

A bakery in Denver, place by place

Platt Park. The file scores 23 addresses for a bakery in Platt Park: 89.7% Best, 87.7% Typical. A 9.2 point band, 89.0% to 79.8%, separates the best address in Platt Park from the weakest. That is a real edge and a modest one. For a bakery the weakest address in Platt Park projects failure within two or more years at 20.2%. The file's own tier for a bakery in Platt Park is Great, with a bakery 113th of the 129 types ranked in the place. What the surrounding blocks look like: much of it is new build, 32.3% of the housing going up after 2000, degree holders are unusually common here, 76.1% of adults, on income it sits in the Affluent band, poverty is low here by this metro's standard, at 5.8%, top-bracket households run to 78.0% here.

City Park West. 12 addresses in City Park West carry a score for a bakery. Best projects 89.6% and Typical 87.7%. A 8.3 point band, 89.0% to 80.7%, separates the best address in City Park West from the weakest. That is a real edge and a modest one. At the worst address City Park West has, a bakery projects a 19.3% chance of closing inside two or more years. The file's own tier for a bakery in City Park West is Great, with a bakery 18th of the 129 types ranked in the place. City Park West as a place: on income it is at the 34.0 percentile, low for this metro, 64.2% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, well above this metro, 51.7% of households sit in the top bracket, commutes come to a median 25.4 minutes, 97.2% of people are in work.

Highland. Across the 31 addresses scored here, a bakery projects 89.4% Best and 86.4% Typical. Best to weakest in Highland is 89.0% against 73.2%, 15.8 points apart, which is wide enough that the specific site is doing more work than the name of the area. Take the weakest address in Highland and a bakery there is projected to close within two years 26.8% of the time. Highland comes out Great for a bakery, and a bakery ranks 35th of the 129 types the file ranks in Highland. The place itself: 82.2% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, well above this metro, it is an Upper-Middle-income area, poverty is low here by this metro's standard, at 6.2%, households are small, averaging 1.7 people, which reads as singles and couples rather than families, top-bracket households run to 67.5% here.

Heritage Eagle Bend. Here the projection for a bakery is 89.1% Best, 85.7% Typical, taken over 37 scored addresses. Heritage Eagle Bend spans 12.2 points, 89.0% down to 76.8%. Two addresses a few streets apart here are not the same bet. At the worst address Heritage Eagle Bend has, a bakery projects a 23.2% chance of closing inside two or more years. Rated Great for a bakery, Heritage Eagle Bend puts a bakery 115th out of the 129 business types the file ranks there.

Chaffee Park. A bakery in Chaffee Park is projected at 89.1% where the address is strong and 84.1% where it is ordinary, measured over 20 scored addresses. 25.7 points separate the best scored address at 89.0% from the weakest at 63.3%. A bakery at the wrong end of that range is a different proposition from one at the right end. The same bakery at the worst address in Chaffee Park is projected to fail 36.7% of the time over two or more years. A bakery is Great in Chaffee Park by the file's tier, and 18th of the 129 types it ranks in Chaffee Park.

A bakery in Houston, place by place

Greater Heights. The file scores 204 addresses for a bakery in Greater Heights: 89.1% Best, 83.2% Typical. Greater Heights runs from 89.0% all the way down to 50.7%, 38.3 points. Saying you are opening in Greater Heights says almost nothing until you say which address. The weakest address in Greater Heights carries a projected failure rate of 49.3% for a bakery over two or more years. The file calls Greater Heights Great for a bakery and places a bakery 16th among the 129 business types it ranks in Greater Heights. On the ground, employment comes to 96.7%, median age comes to 37.3 years, the median journey to work is 28.6 minutes, income here is at the 98.0 percentile, near the top of the metro, 78.5% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, well above this metro.

Midtown. Midtown holds 37 scored addresses for a bakery, projecting 88.6% Best and 83.1% Typical. The gap from 89.0% to 61.0% is 28.0 points, wider than the gap between many whole metros. In Midtown the address is the decision and the neighborhood name tells you little. Put a bakery at the weakest address in Midtown and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 39.0% of the time. A bakery is Great in Midtown by the file's tier, and 106th of the 129 types it ranks in Midtown. In Midtown itself, on income it reaches the 74.0 percentile of this metro, it is a high-income pocket, with 62.8% of households in the top bracket, on income it sits in the Upper-Middle band, vacancy runs high at 14.9% of homes, which is what a thin retail street looks like in the data, households run small here, 1.6 people.

Neartown/Montrose. Neartown/Montrose holds 91 scored addresses for a bakery, projecting 87.4% Best and 81.0% Typical. Inside Neartown/Montrose the scored addresses range 57.4% to 89.0%. 31.6 points of difference in one place is the clearest case there is for choosing the site and not the area. At the worst address Neartown/Montrose has, a bakery projects a 42.6% chance of closing inside two or more years. Neartown/Montrose reads Great for a bakery, with a bakery sitting 33rd among the 129 types ranked there. The place itself: 11.7% of the housing is empty, 96.3% of people are in work, median age comes to 37.2 years, 76.6% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, well above this metro, on income it reaches the 84.0 percentile of this metro.

Independence Heights. A bakery here reads 86.5% Best and 80.9% Typical across 95 scored addresses. Independence Heights runs from 89.0% all the way down to 62.0%, 27.0 points. Saying you are opening in Independence Heights says almost nothing until you say which address. Measured at the weakest address in Independence Heights, a bakery is projected to fail at 38.0% over two or more years. The file's own tier for a bakery in Independence Heights is Great, with a bakery 14th of the 129 types ranked in the place. The place itself: on income it lands at the 39.0 percentile of this metro, 10.9% of homes sit vacant, households average 2.7 people, 23.2% of homes date from after 2000, high-income households come to 38.0%.

Lazybrook/Timbergrove. For a bakery, Lazybrook/Timbergrove projects 78.2% Typical and 86.4% Best, over 101 scored addresses. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 54.3%, a spread of 34.7 points. This is a place where the address decides the outcome and the neighborhood barely narrows it. At the worst address Lazybrook/Timbergrove has, a bakery projects a 45.7% chance of closing inside two or more years. The file calls Lazybrook/Timbergrove Great for a bakery and places a bakery 12th among the 129 business types it ranks in Lazybrook/Timbergrove. On the ground, 67.6% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, well above this metro, the stock is young here, 54.1% of it built since 2000, it is a high-income pocket, with 66.9% of households in the top bracket, the area reads Affluent-income, poverty is low here by this metro's standard, at 11.3%.

A bakery in Orlando, place by place

Colonial Town Center. For a bakery, Colonial Town Center projects 86.4% Typical and 89.5% Best, over 16 scored addresses. 89.0% at the best scored address against 76.8% at the weakest is 12.2 points of spread. The neighborhood gets you a shortlist and the address settles it. The weakest address in Colonial Town Center carries a projected failure rate of 23.2% for a bakery over two or more years. In the file Colonial Town Center is Great for a bakery, which puts a bakery 106th of the 129 types ranked there. What the surrounding blocks look like: much of it is new build, 35.2% of the housing going up after 2000, it is a Middle-income area, median age comes to 35.7 years, income sits mid-table here, the 61.6 percentile, poverty comes to 11.7%.

South Orange. A bakery here reads 89.0% Best and 84.4% Typical across 10 scored addresses. South Orange spans 19.0 points, 88.2% down to 69.2%. Two addresses a few streets apart here are not the same bet. Measured at the weakest address in South Orange, a bakery is projected to fail at 30.8% over two or more years. In the file South Orange is Good for a bakery, which puts a bakery 100th of the 129 types ranked there. As a place, much of it is new build, 39.5% of the housing going up after 2000, the area reads Middle-income, it is unusually well educated, with 58.8% of adults holding a bachelor's degree or more, poverty is uncommon here, 10.4%, the average household is 2.0 people.

Hunters Creek. 92 addresses in Hunters Creek carry a score for a bakery. Best projects 88.0% and Typical 82.6%. A 27.5 point spread, 89.0% to 61.5%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. At the weakest address in Hunters Creek a bakery carries a projected failure rate of 38.5% over two or more years. The file calls Hunters Creek Good for a bakery and places a bakery 1st among the 129 business types it ranks in Hunters Creek. As a place, empty homes run to 15.8%, which reads as a thin street in the data, on income it sits in the Middle band, households are large, averaging 2.9 people, poverty is low here by this metro's standard, at 10.3%, 41.2% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, below this metro.

Kirkman South. Kirkman South holds 11 scored addresses for a bakery, projecting 87.6% Best and 82.0% Typical. There are 14.9 points between the best scored address at 89.0% and the weakest at 74.1%, so choosing Kirkman South is the start of the decision rather than the end of it. Down at the weakest address in Kirkman South the projected chance a bakery does not last two years is 25.9%. For a bakery the file tiers Kirkman South Average; against the 129 types ranked in Kirkman South a bakery comes 88th. On the ground, the area reads Working-income, empty homes run to 14.9%, which reads as a thin street in the data, at 36.3% the top bracket is thin here, 35.1% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, below this metro, at 2.8 people the average household is bigger than most here.

Florida Center. 63 addresses in Florida Center carry a score for a bakery. Best projects 86.4% and Typical 79.6%. Florida Center runs from 89.0% all the way down to 59.7%, 29.3 points. Saying you are opening in Florida Center says almost nothing until you say which address. Take the weakest address in Florida Center and a bakery there is projected to close within two years 40.3% of the time. A bakery is Average in Florida Center by the file's tier, and 19th of the 129 types it ranks in Florida Center. The place itself: 93.7% of people are in work, much of it is new build, 54.7% of the housing going up after 2000, vacancy runs high at 16.9% of homes, which is what a thin retail street looks like in the data, on income it is at the 21.9 percentile, low for this metro, the area reads Working-income.

A bakery in Seattle, place by place

Woodland. A bakery here reads 89.2% Best and 85.9% Typical across 12 scored addresses. Best to weakest in Woodland is 89.0% against 77.2%, 11.8 points apart, which is wide enough that the specific site is doing more work than the name of the area. A bakery at the weakest address in Woodland has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 22.8%. Tiered Great for a bakery, Woodland ranks a bakery 16th of the 129 types it ranks. In Woodland itself, on income it lands at the 57.0 percentile of this metro, high-income households come to 72.3%, households average 2.1 people, employment comes to 93.7%, the median journey to work is 28.7 minutes.

North Queen Anne. North Queen Anne holds 30 scored addresses for a bakery, projecting 88.0% Best and 81.6% Typical. The gap from 89.0% to 63.8% is 25.2 points, wider than the gap between many whole metros. In North Queen Anne the address is the decision and the neighborhood name tells you little. Measured at the weakest address in North Queen Anne, a bakery is projected to fail at 36.2% over two or more years. The file tiers North Queen Anne Great for a bakery, and rates a bakery 17th of the 129 business types it ranks there. In North Queen Anne itself, income here is at the 94.0 percentile, near the top of the metro, the area reads Affluent-income, empty homes run to 8.7%, which reads as a thin street in the data, the stock is young here, 28.3% of it built since 2000, top-bracket households run to 82.7% here.

Northwest Everett. A bakery in Northwest Everett is projected at 87.9% where the address is strong and 82.3% where it is ordinary, measured over 42 scored addresses. The gap inside Northwest Everett is 20.3 points, from 89.0% at the best scored address to 68.7% at the weakest. Getting the neighborhood right is half of it. Measured at the weakest address in Northwest Everett, a bakery is projected to fail at 31.3% over two or more years. For a bakery the file tiers Northwest Everett Great; against the 129 types ranked in Northwest Everett a bakery comes 102nd.

Fremont. 29 addresses in Fremont carry a score for a bakery. Best projects 87.5% and Typical 81.6%. Fremont runs from 89.0% all the way down to 62.0%, 27.0 points. Saying you are opening in Fremont says almost nothing until you say which address. At the weakest address in Fremont a bakery carries a projected failure rate of 38.0% over two or more years. A bakery is Great in Fremont by the file's tier, and 106th of the 129 types it ranks in Fremont. Fremont as a place: households are small, averaging 1.6 people, which reads as singles and couples rather than families, income reaches only the 42.0 percentile here, degree holders are unusually common here, 82.9% of adults, almost nothing sits empty, with vacancy at 5.4% of homes, at 31.7 years the median age sits below this metro's.

East Queen Anne. Take the Best figure in East Queen Anne and a bakery projects 87.3%. Take Typical and it projects 77.8%. 16 addresses here carry a score. 33.8 points separate the best scored address at 89.0% from the weakest at 55.2%. A bakery at the wrong end of that range is a different proposition from one at the right end. The bottom of East Queen Anne, its weakest address, projects a bakery failing 44.8% of the time within two or more years. Rated Great for a bakery, East Queen Anne puts a bakery 32nd out of the 129 business types the file ranks there. In East Queen Anne itself, 79.3% of households sit in the top bracket, the median commute runs 26.1 minutes, housing built since 2000 comes to 22.0%, median age comes to 40.0 years, households average 2.3 people.

A bakery in Washington DC, place by place

LeDroit Park. Take the Best figure in LeDroit Park and a bakery projects 89.9%. Take Typical and it projects 87.9%. 11 addresses here carry a score. LeDroit Park runs 89.0% at its best scored address and 84.8% at its weakest, 4.2 points. The block is worth getting right here, and it is not the whole decision. Move the same bakery to the weakest address in LeDroit Park and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 15.2%. LeDroit Park reads Great for a bakery, with a bakery sitting 17th among the 129 types ranked there. LeDroit Park as a place: households average 2.0 people, employment comes to 95.2%, the poverty rate is high for this metro at 20.7%, only 7.6% of the housing went up after 2000, the area reads Working-income.

U Street Corridor. Across the 13 addresses scored here, a bakery projects 89.8% Best and 87.5% Typical. A 5.8 point band, 89.0% to 83.2%, separates the best address in U Street Corridor from the weakest. That is a real edge and a modest one. Down at the weakest address in U Street Corridor the projected chance a bakery does not last two years is 16.8%. On the file's tiers U Street Corridor is Great for a bakery, and a bakery takes 53rd place of the 129 types ranked in U Street Corridor. As a place, 37.8% of the housing went up after 2000, new for this metro, the area reads Middle-income, household size comes to 1.8 people, median age comes to 32.0 years, vacancy comes to 9.2% of homes.

Truxton Circle. A bakery here reads 89.8% Best and 87.5% Typical across 22 scored addresses. A 5.8 point band, 89.0% to 83.2%, separates the best address in Truxton Circle from the weakest. That is a real edge and a modest one. At the worst address Truxton Circle has, a bakery projects a 16.8% chance of closing inside two or more years. Truxton Circle comes out Great for a bakery, and a bakery ranks 11th of the 129 types the file ranks in Truxton Circle. On the ground, the average household is 2.2 people, 74.8% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, 77.0% of households are high income, employment comes to 98.9%, the median journey to work is 31.1 minutes.

Eckington. 38 addresses in Eckington carry a score for a bakery. Best projects 89.5% and Typical 86.0%. 89.0% at the best scored address against 75.0% at the weakest is 14.0 points of spread. The neighborhood gets you a shortlist and the address settles it. Put a bakery at the weakest address in Eckington and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 25.0% of the time. Eckington is Great for a bakery in the file, and 17th of the 129 types it ranks there is where a bakery lands. As a place, much of it is new build, 55.4% of the housing going up after 2000, the area reads Middle-income, households are small, averaging 1.8 people, which reads as singles and couples rather than families, median age comes to 33.8 years, the poverty rate is 9.2%.

Pleasant Plains. Pleasant Plains holds 27 scored addresses for a bakery, projecting 89.5% Best and 85.9% Typical. Pleasant Plains spans 14.0 points, 89.0% down to 75.0%. Two addresses a few streets apart here are not the same bet. A bakery at the weakest address in Pleasant Plains has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 25.0%. Pleasant Plains is Great for a bakery in the file, and 41st of the 129 types it ranks there is where a bakery lands. Pleasant Plains as a place: poverty runs to 16.9%, above this metro, income here is at the 82.1 percentile, near the top of the metro, it is an Upper-Middle-income area, the median age is a young 27.2 years, only 14.6% of the housing went up after 2000.

A bakery in Minneapolis, place by place

Kingfield. A bakery here reads 89.3% Best and 86.1% Typical across 34 scored addresses. The gap inside Kingfield is 16.2 points, from 89.0% at the best scored address to 72.8% at the weakest. Getting the neighborhood right is half of it. The same bakery at the worst address in Kingfield is projected to fail 27.2% of the time over two or more years. The file tiers Kingfield Great for a bakery, and rates a bakery 5th of the 129 business types it ranks there. The place itself: 67.9% of households sit in the top income bracket, high for this metro, vacancy is low, 4.6% of homes, household size comes to 2.0 people, 96.8% of people are in work, median age comes to 36.5 years.

Tangletown. Take the Best figure in Tangletown and a bakery projects 89.2%. Take Typical and it projects 86.3%. 28 addresses here carry a score. 89.0% at the best scored address against 73.6% at the weakest is 15.4 points of spread. The neighborhood gets you a shortlist and the address settles it. The bottom of Tangletown, its weakest address, projects a bakery failing 26.4% of the time within two or more years. In the file Tangletown is Great for a bakery, which puts a bakery 5th of the 129 types ranked there. In Tangletown itself, 8.5% of homes sit empty, high for this metro, degree holders are unusually common here, 82.4% of adults, top-bracket households run to 70.6% here, the middle of the age range sits at 40.5 years, household size comes to 2.4 people.

Windom. Here the projection for a bakery is 89.2% Best, 85.9% Typical, taken over 29 scored addresses. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 75.9%, a spread of 13.1 points, so the neighborhood narrows the search and the address is what still decides it. Move the same bakery to the weakest address in Windom and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 24.1%. Rated Great for a bakery, Windom puts a bakery 5th out of the 129 business types the file ranks there. In Windom itself, at 4.0% of homes, empty property is rare here, poverty is uncommon here, 7.2%, it sits near the top of this metro for income, at the 53.0 percentile, adults with a bachelor's degree or more come to 48.9%, the middle of the age range sits at 40.8 years.

Bancroft. Scored across 12 addresses, a bakery in Bancroft reaches 89.1% Best and 86.5% Typical. There are 10.0 points between the best scored address at 89.0% and the weakest at 79.0%, so choosing Bancroft is the start of the decision rather than the end of it. For a bakery the weakest address in Bancroft projects failure within two or more years at 21.0%. Bancroft is Great for a bakery in the file, and 4th of the 129 types it ranks there is where a bakery lands. What the surrounding blocks look like: the average household is 2.3 people, commutes come to a median 23.9 minutes, the middle of the age range sits at 36.9 years, employment comes to 95.2%, at 3.7% post-2000 stock, the buildings here are older than most.

Northrop. For a bakery, Northrop projects 86.0% Typical and 88.9% Best, over 18 scored addresses. There are 12.6 points between the best scored address at 89.0% and the weakest at 76.4%, so choosing Northrop is the start of the decision rather than the end of it. The same bakery at the worst address in Northrop is projected to fail 23.6% of the time over two or more years. For a bakery the file tiers Northrop Great; against the 129 types ranked in Northrop a bakery comes 3rd. In Northrop itself, poverty is low here by this metro's standard, at 2.7%, on income it sits in the Affluent band, it is a high-income pocket, with 80.4% of households in the top bracket, at 3.3% of homes, empty property is rare here, 79.4% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, well above this metro.

A bakery in St. Louis, place by place

Walnut Park West. For a bakery, Walnut Park West projects 76.5% Typical and 81.8% Best, over 11 scored addresses. The best scored address reaches 87.3% and the weakest 65.6%, a spread of 21.7 points, so the neighborhood narrows the search and the address is what still decides it. At the worst address Walnut Park West has, a bakery projects a 34.4% chance of closing inside two or more years. On the file's tiers Walnut Park West is Great for a bakery, and a bakery takes 23rd place of the 129 types ranked in Walnut Park West.

Tower Grove East. Scored across 16 addresses, a bakery in Tower Grove East reaches 81.7% Best and 77.1% Typical. Best to weakest in Tower Grove East is 88.2% against 68.7%, 19.5 points apart, which is wide enough that the specific site is doing more work than the name of the area. For a bakery the weakest address in Tower Grove East projects failure within two or more years at 31.3%. On the file's tiers Tower Grove East is Great for a bakery, and a bakery takes 121st place of the 129 types ranked in Tower Grove East.

Benton Park West. 12 addresses in Benton Park West carry a score for a bakery. Best projects 81.6% and Typical 76.2%. There are 22.8 points between the best scored address at 84.8% and the weakest at 62.0%, so choosing Benton Park West is the start of the decision rather than the end of it. Down at the weakest address in Benton Park West the projected chance a bakery does not last two years is 38.0%. Tiered Great for a bakery, Benton Park West ranks a bakery 118th of the 129 types it ranks.

Bevo Mill. For a bakery, Bevo Mill projects 74.1% Typical and 81.3% Best, over 38 scored addresses. A 33.0 point spread, 88.2% to 55.2%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. The same bakery at the worst address in Bevo Mill is projected to fail 44.8% of the time over two or more years. Bevo Mill reads Great for a bakery, with a bakery sitting 121st among the 129 types ranked there.

Southwest Garden. For a bakery, Southwest Garden projects 75.9% Typical and 80.7% Best, over 24 scored addresses. A 29.9 point spread, 87.3% to 57.4%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. Move the same bakery to the weakest address in Southwest Garden and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 42.6%. Southwest Garden comes out Great for a bakery, and a bakery ranks 38th of the 129 types the file ranks in Southwest Garden.

A bakery in Philadelphia, place by place

Mount Airy East. A bakery in Mount Airy East is projected at 85.1% where the address is strong and 77.9% where it is ordinary, measured over 170 scored addresses. A 36.0 point spread, 89.0% to 53.0%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. Take the weakest address in Mount Airy East and a bakery there is projected to close within two years 47.0% of the time. Mount Airy East reads Great for a bakery, with a bakery sitting 39th among the 129 types ranked there. The place itself: almost nothing sits empty, with vacancy at 5.7% of homes, 42.7% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, well above this metro, only 4.8% of the housing went up after 2000, it sits near the top of this metro for income, at the 61.5 percentile, top-bracket households run to 51.4% here.

Germantown Morton. Germantown Morton holds 40 scored addresses for a bakery, projecting 83.5% Best and 76.9% Typical. 33.4 points separate the best scored address at 88.2% from the weakest at 54.8%. A bakery at the wrong end of that range is a different proposition from one at the right end. At the weakest address in Germantown Morton a bakery carries a projected failure rate of 45.2% over two or more years. Germantown Morton is Great for a bakery in the file, and 20th of the 129 types it ranks there is where a bakery lands. What the surrounding blocks look like: high earners are scarce here, at 15.1% of households, the area reads Low-Income-income, only 3.9% of the housing went up after 2000, the poverty rate is high for this metro at 28.1%, formal education is less common here than across the metro, at 22.3% of adults.

Hunting Park. 158 addresses in Hunting Park carry a score for a bakery. Best projects 83.2% and Typical 75.7%. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 50.2%, a spread of 38.8 points. This is a place where the address decides the outcome and the neighborhood barely narrows it. The same bakery at the worst address in Hunting Park is projected to fail 49.8% of the time over two or more years. A bakery is Great in Hunting Park by the file's tier, and 112th of the 129 types it ranks in Hunting Park. As a place, the area reads Working-income, the average household runs 3.0 people, large for this metro, vacancy is low, 5.7% of homes, 84.7% of people are in work, the middle of the age range sits at 33.4 years.

Logan. Scored across 158 addresses, a bakery in Logan reaches 82.5% Best and 75.3% Typical. A 38.3 point spread, 89.0% to 50.7%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. For a bakery the weakest address in Logan projects failure within two or more years at 49.3%. On the file's tiers Logan is Great for a bakery, and a bakery takes 16th place of the 129 types ranked in Logan. In Logan itself, 14.7% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, below this metro, only 3.5% of the housing went up after 2000, it is a Working-income area, at 24.1% the top bracket is thin here, vacancy is low, 6.8% of homes.

Germany Hill. The file scores 28 addresses for a bakery in Germany Hill: 82.5% Best, 76.4% Typical. Germany Hill runs from 88.2% all the way down to 61.5%, 26.7 points. Saying you are opening in Germany Hill says almost nothing until you say which address. Put a bakery at the weakest address in Germany Hill and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 38.5% of the time. A bakery is Great in Germany Hill by the file's tier, and 27th of the 129 types it ranks in Germany Hill. What the surrounding blocks look like: at 1.8 people the average household is small, singles and couples more than families, the middle of the age range sits at 33.3 years, employment comes to 99.5%, the median journey to work is 34.4 minutes, the stock is young here, 23.2% of it built since 2000.

A bakery in Phoenix, place by place

Pepperwood. Scored across 16 addresses, a bakery in Pepperwood reaches 81.7% Best and 75.3% Typical. A 31.7 point spread, 87.3% to 55.6%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. Take the weakest address in Pepperwood and a bakery there is projected to close within two years 44.4% of the time. The file calls Pepperwood Great for a bakery and places a bakery 34th among the 129 business types it ranks in Pepperwood. What the surrounding blocks look like: 8.2% of people here are below the poverty line, on income it lands at the 59.4 percentile of this metro, the median age is 34.2 years, 96.6% of people are in work, the stock is young here, 34.1% of it built since 2000.

Dobson Ranch. For a bakery, Dobson Ranch projects 75.3% Typical and 81.4% Best, over 77 scored addresses. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 57.0%, a spread of 32.0 points. This is a place where the address decides the outcome and the neighborhood barely narrows it. Put a bakery at the weakest address in Dobson Ranch and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 43.0% of the time. The file calls Dobson Ranch Great for a bakery and places a bakery 38th among the 129 business types it ranks in Dobson Ranch. Dobson Ranch as a place: on income it sits in the Middle band, almost nothing sits empty, with vacancy at 4.9% of homes, the middle of the age range sits at 41.1 years, the average household is 2.2 people, it sits at the 49.0 percentile for income in this metro.

Kiwanis Park. Kiwanis Park holds 11 scored addresses for a bakery, projecting 80.5% Best and 76.5% Typical. Kiwanis Park spans 16.4 points, 88.2% down to 71.8%. Two addresses a few streets apart here are not the same bet. The same bakery at the worst address in Kiwanis Park is projected to fail 28.2% of the time over two or more years. The file calls Kiwanis Park Good for a bakery and places a bakery 39th among the 129 business types it ranks in Kiwanis Park. In Kiwanis Park itself, employment comes to 94.5%, it sits low in this metro for income, at the 25.0 percentile, poverty runs to 13.6%, above this metro, the area reads Working-income, high earners are scarce here, at 45.7% of households.

Carino Estates. Take the Best figure in Carino Estates and a bakery projects 80.0%. Take Typical and it projects 74.9%. 18 addresses here carry a score. 85.7% at the best scored address against 62.4% at the weakest is 23.3 points of spread. The neighborhood gets you a shortlist and the address settles it. At the worst address Carino Estates has, a bakery projects a 37.6% chance of closing inside two or more years. The file calls Carino Estates Good for a bakery and places a bakery 26th among the 129 business types it ranks in Carino Estates. In Carino Estates itself, on income it reaches the 68.8 percentile of this metro, top-bracket households run to 71.8% here, household size comes to 2.2 people, the middle of the age range sits at 33.2 years, 5.9% of homes sit vacant.

Escalante. Across the 18 addresses scored here, a bakery projects 79.9% Best and 73.8% Typical. The best scored address reaches 87.3% and the weakest 58.4%, a spread of 28.9 points. This is a place where the address decides the outcome and the neighborhood barely narrows it. Take the weakest address in Escalante and a bakery there is projected to close within two years 41.6% of the time. The file's own tier for a bakery in Escalante is Good, with a bakery 30th of the 129 types ranked in the place. What the surrounding blocks look like: high earners are scarce here, at 46.7% of households, the median age is 31.9 years, the median commute runs 21.8 minutes, households average 2.4 people, degree attainment sits at 41.2% of adults.

A bakery in Detroit, place by place

North Rosedale Park. Across the 18 addresses scored here, a bakery projects 85.2% Best and 78.6% Typical. Best to weakest in North Rosedale Park is 88.2% against 66.9%, 21.3 points apart, which is wide enough that the specific site is doing more work than the name of the area. Measured at the weakest address in North Rosedale Park, a bakery is projected to fail at 33.1% over two or more years. North Rosedale Park is Great for a bakery in the file, and 9th of the 129 types it ranks there is where a bakery lands. The place itself: the poverty rate is 30.6%, 28.7% of households sit in the top bracket, the median age is 38.1 years, at 0.9% post-2000 stock, the buildings here are older than most, on income it sits in the Working band.

Fordson West. 77 addresses in Fordson West carry a score for a bakery. Best projects 84.3% and Typical 77.9%. Inside Fordson West the scored addresses range 54.3% to 88.2%. 33.9 points of difference in one place is the clearest case there is for choosing the site and not the area. The same bakery at the worst address in Fordson West is projected to fail 45.7% of the time over two or more years. The file tiers Fordson West Great for a bakery, and rates a bakery 12th of the 129 business types it ranks there.

Salina. The file scores 98 addresses for a bakery in Salina: 83.7% Best, 77.5% Typical. A 28.0 point spread, 89.0% to 61.0%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. A bakery at the weakest address in Salina has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 39.0%. Salina is Great for a bakery in the file, and 15th of the 129 types it ranks there is where a bakery lands.

Fordson East. For a bakery, Fordson East projects 76.4% Typical and 83.0% Best, over 78 scored addresses. The gap from 89.0% to 49.8% is 39.2 points, wider than the gap between many whole metros. In Fordson East the address is the decision and the neighborhood name tells you little. For a bakery the weakest address in Fordson East projects failure within two or more years at 50.2%. In the file Fordson East is Great for a bakery, which puts a bakery 13th of the 129 types ranked there.

Grandmont Rosedale. The file scores 48 addresses for a bakery in Grandmont Rosedale: 82.9% Best, 77.4% Typical. Grandmont Rosedale runs from 88.2% all the way down to 59.2%, 29.0 points. Saying you are opening in Grandmont Rosedale says almost nothing until you say which address. The bottom of Grandmont Rosedale, its weakest address, projects a bakery failing 40.8% of the time within two or more years. Grandmont Rosedale reads Great for a bakery, with a bakery sitting 21st among the 129 types ranked there. On the ground, 18.5% of homes sit vacant, only 1.9% of the housing went up after 2000, on income it sits in the Working band, degree holders are thinner on the ground here, 16.4% of adults, poverty comes to 27.3%.

A bakery in Baltimore, place by place

Hampden. Here the projection for a bakery is 85.7% Best, 79.1% Typical, taken over 17 scored addresses. Inside Hampden the scored addresses range 58.8% to 88.2%. 29.4 points of difference in one place is the clearest case there is for choosing the site and not the area. The same bakery at the worst address in Hampden is projected to fail 41.2% of the time over two or more years. The file's own tier for a bakery in Hampden is Great, with a bakery 17th of the 129 types ranked in the place.

Brooklyn. Brooklyn holds 25 scored addresses for a bakery, projecting 84.7% Best and 77.9% Typical. Brooklyn runs from 88.2% all the way down to 61.5%, 26.7 points. Saying you are opening in Brooklyn says almost nothing until you say which address. For a bakery the weakest address in Brooklyn projects failure within two or more years at 38.5%. For a bakery the file tiers Brooklyn Great; against the 129 types ranked in Brooklyn a bakery comes 107th. What the surrounding blocks look like: only 36.3% of households are high income, the average household runs 2.7 people, large for this metro, commutes come to a median 32.8 minutes, the middle of the age range sits at 35.3 years, employment stands at 92.9%.

Canton. Scored across 16 addresses, a bakery in Canton reaches 84.3% Best and 77.8% Typical. A 28.8 point spread, 89.0% to 60.2%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. The bottom of Canton, its weakest address, projects a bakery failing 39.8% of the time within two or more years. For a bakery the file tiers Canton Great; against the 129 types ranked in Canton a bakery comes 39th. In Canton itself, income here is at the 97.0 percentile, near the top of the metro, the stock is young here, 14.2% of it built since 2000, it is unusually well educated, with 80.1% of adults holding a bachelor's degree or more, poverty is uncommon here, 4.3%, 80.4% of households sit in the top income bracket, high for this metro.

Montebello. Take the Best figure in Montebello and a bakery projects 82.3%. Take Typical and it projects 78.1%. 13 addresses here carry a score. The gap inside Montebello is 18.8 points, from 85.7% at the best scored address to 66.9% at the weakest. Getting the neighborhood right is half of it. Measured at the weakest address in Montebello, a bakery is projected to fail at 33.1% over two or more years. Montebello reads Great for a bakery, with a bakery sitting 125th among the 129 types ranked there.

Curtis Bay. Scored across 14 addresses, a bakery in Curtis Bay reaches 82.2% Best and 76.7% Typical. There are 21.3 points between the best scored address at 88.2% and the weakest at 66.9%, so choosing Curtis Bay is the start of the decision rather than the end of it. Measured at the weakest address in Curtis Bay, a bakery is projected to fail at 33.1% over two or more years. Curtis Bay comes out Great for a bakery, and a bakery ranks 105th of the 129 types the file ranks in Curtis Bay.

A bakery in San Diego, place by place

Millenia. 11 addresses in Millenia carry a score for a bakery. Best projects 80.9% and Typical 75.9%. The gap inside Millenia is 21.5 points, from 85.7% at the best scored address to 64.2% at the weakest. Getting the neighborhood right is half of it. A bakery at the weakest address in Millenia has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 35.8%. The file's own tier for a bakery in Millenia is Great, with a bakery 35th of the 129 types ranked in the place.

Miramar. Take the Best figure in Miramar and a bakery projects 80.3%. Take Typical and it projects 73.4%. 417 addresses here carry a score. 39.2 points separate the best scored address at 89.0% from the weakest at 49.8%. A bakery at the wrong end of that range is a different proposition from one at the right end. The same bakery at the worst address in Miramar is projected to fail 50.2% of the time over two or more years. A bakery is Great in Miramar by the file's tier, and 24th of the 129 types it ranks in Miramar. In Miramar itself, 33.4% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, below this metro, people get to work quickly, a median commute of 15.8 minutes, poverty is low here by this metro's standard, at 9.2%, high-income households come to 62.7%, employment comes to 94.4%.

Kearny Mesa. Here the projection for a bakery is 77.8% Best, 72.0% Typical, taken over 161 scored addresses. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 49.8%, a spread of 39.2 points. This is a place where the address decides the outcome and the neighborhood barely narrows it. For a bakery the weakest address in Kearny Mesa projects failure within two or more years at 50.2%. Tiered Great for a bakery, Kearny Mesa ranks a bakery 125th of the 129 types it ranks. Kearny Mesa as a place: income here is at the 69.7 percentile, near the top of the metro, 76.9% of households sit in the top income bracket, high for this metro, households are small, averaging 2.1 people, which reads as singles and couples rather than families, 89.1% of people are in work, median age comes to 38.9 years.

Morro Hills. For a bakery, Morro Hills projects 72.7% Typical and 77.6% Best, over 131 scored addresses. A 38.8 point spread, 88.2% to 49.4%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. The same bakery at the worst address in Morro Hills is projected to fail 50.6% of the time over two or more years. The file's own tier for a bakery in Morro Hills is Great, with a bakery 125th of the 129 types ranked in the place.

Hillsborough. The file scores 16 addresses for a bakery in Hillsborough: 77.4% Best, 72.7% Typical. The gap from 83.2% to 51.6% is 31.6 points, wider than the gap between many whole metros. In Hillsborough the address is the decision and the neighborhood name tells you little. Down at the weakest address in Hillsborough the projected chance a bakery does not last two years is 48.4%. Hillsborough reads Great for a bakery, with a bakery sitting 22nd among the 129 types ranked there.

A bakery in Portland, place by place

Central Beaverton. Scored across 81 addresses, a bakery in Central Beaverton reaches 84.2% Best and 76.1% Typical. Inside Central Beaverton the scored addresses range 49.8% to 89.0%. 39.2 points of difference in one place is the clearest case there is for choosing the site and not the area. Down at the weakest address in Central Beaverton the projected chance a bakery does not last two years is 50.2%. The file's own tier for a bakery in Central Beaverton is Great, with a bakery 37th of the 129 types ranked in the place. As a place, much of it is new build, 30.8% of the housing going up after 2000, it sits near the top of this metro for income, at the 88.0 percentile, it is an Upper-Middle-income area, at 8.4% the poverty rate sits below this metro, vacancy is low, 4.1% of homes.

Sunnyside. For a bakery, Sunnyside projects 76.8% Typical and 83.6% Best, over 19 scored addresses. The gap from 88.2% to 57.9% is 30.3 points, wider than the gap between many whole metros. In Sunnyside the address is the decision and the neighborhood name tells you little. At the worst address Sunnyside has, a bakery projects a 42.1% chance of closing inside two or more years. Tiered Great for a bakery, Sunnyside ranks a bakery 36th of the 129 types it ranks. As a place, at 14.9% post-2000 stock, the buildings here are older than most, on income it is at the 47.0 percentile, low for this metro, poverty comes to 12.4%, the median journey to work is 23.4 minutes, median age comes to 37.4 years.

Greenway. Across the 37 addresses scored here, a bakery projects 79.3% Best and 72.1% Typical. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 52.5%, a spread of 36.5 points. This is a place where the address decides the outcome and the neighborhood barely narrows it. Move the same bakery to the weakest address in Greenway and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 47.5%. Greenway comes out Great for a bakery, and a bakery ranks 16th of the 129 types the file ranks in Greenway. As a place, income sits mid-table here, the 55.0 percentile, commutes come to a median 25.7 minutes, employment comes to 95.8%, the middle of the age range sits at 39.7 years, it is a Middle-income area.

Buckman. Buckman holds 37 scored addresses for a bakery, projecting 76.6% Best and 71.5% Typical. Buckman runs from 87.3% all the way down to 50.2%, 37.1 points. Saying you are opening in Buckman says almost nothing until you say which address. At the weakest address in Buckman a bakery carries a projected failure rate of 49.8% over two or more years. For a bakery the file tiers Buckman Great; against the 129 types ranked in Buckman a bakery comes 106th. In Buckman itself, vacancy runs high at 6.3% of homes, which is what a thin retail street looks like in the data, only 44.4% of households are high income, the median age is 34.7 years, the median commute runs 22.0 minutes, degree attainment sits at 62.2% of adults.

Concordia. For a bakery, Concordia projects 69.6% Typical and 76.3% Best, over 17 scored addresses. The best scored address reaches 88.2% and the weakest 50.7%, a spread of 37.5 points. This is a place where the address decides the outcome and the neighborhood barely narrows it. Take the weakest address in Concordia and a bakery there is projected to close within two years 49.3% of the time. In the file Concordia is Good for a bakery, which puts a bakery 19th of the 129 types ranked there. The place itself: at 11.9% post-2000 stock, the buildings here are older than most, 5.7% of homes sit empty, high for this metro, it is a high-income pocket, with 69.8% of households in the top bracket, 10.2% of people here are below the poverty line, the middle of the age range sits at 38.2 years.

A bakery in San Francisco, place by place

Bushrod. The file scores 11 addresses for a bakery in Bushrod: 85.4% Best, 78.1% Typical. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 62.4%, a spread of 26.6 points. This is a place where the address decides the outcome and the neighborhood barely narrows it. A bakery at the weakest address in Bushrod has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 37.6%. A bakery is Great in Bushrod by the file's tier, and 91st of the 129 types it ranks in Bushrod. What the surrounding blocks look like: median age comes to 37.0 years, on income it lands at the 41.9 percentile of this metro, commutes come to a median 34.1 minutes, the poverty rate is 10.9%, household size comes to 2.4 people.

Lorin. Take the Best figure in Lorin and a bakery projects 85.3%. Take Typical and it projects 76.9%. 11 addresses here carry a score. A 34.4 point spread, 88.2% to 53.8%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. The bottom of Lorin, its weakest address, projects a bakery failing 46.2% of the time within two or more years. Lorin is Great for a bakery in the file, and 102nd of the 129 types it ranks there is where a bakery lands.

Central Richmond. Take the Best figure in Central Richmond and a bakery projects 84.5%. Take Typical and it projects 75.9%. 24 addresses here carry a score. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 48.9%, a spread of 40.1 points. This is a place where the address decides the outcome and the neighborhood barely narrows it. A bakery at the weakest address in Central Richmond has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 51.1%. Tiered Great for a bakery, Central Richmond ranks a bakery 104th of the 129 types it ranks. The place itself: at 7.7% of homes, empty property is rare here, median age comes to 44.3 years, degree attainment sits at 64.5% of adults, the median commute runs 35.7 minutes, 69.9% of households are high income.

West Berkeley. West Berkeley holds 25 scored addresses for a bakery, projecting 84.5% Best and 76.1% Typical. Inside West Berkeley the scored addresses range 49.8% to 89.0%. 39.2 points of difference in one place is the clearest case there is for choosing the site and not the area. The weakest address in West Berkeley carries a projected failure rate of 50.2% for a bakery over two or more years. On the file's tiers West Berkeley is Great for a bakery, and a bakery takes 114th place of the 129 types ranked in West Berkeley.

Central Berkeley. Across the 11 addresses scored here, a bakery projects 83.9% Best and 77.4% Typical. A 27.1 point spread, 87.3% to 60.2%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. The same bakery at the worst address in Central Berkeley is projected to fail 39.8% of the time over two or more years. The file's own tier for a bakery in Central Berkeley is Great, with a bakery 106th of the 129 types ranked in the place.

A bakery in Tampa Bay, place by place

North Hyde Park. For a bakery, North Hyde Park projects 80.8% Typical and 86.8% Best, over 20 scored addresses. 88.2% at the best scored address against 67.4% at the weakest is 20.8 points of spread. The neighborhood gets you a shortlist and the address settles it. Move the same bakery to the weakest address in North Hyde Park and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 32.6%. The file tiers North Hyde Park Great for a bakery, and rates a bakery 32nd of the 129 business types it ranks there. North Hyde Park as a place: on income it sits in the Upper-Middle band, income here is at the 88.3 percentile, near the top of the metro, 12.8% of homes sit empty, high for this metro, poverty is uncommon here, 7.2%, 66.9% of households sit in the top income bracket, high for this metro.

Tampa Heights. Take the Best figure in Tampa Heights and a bakery projects 85.3%. Take Typical and it projects 76.5%. 17 addresses here carry a score. Tampa Heights runs from 89.0% all the way down to 53.0%, 36.0 points. Saying you are opening in Tampa Heights says almost nothing until you say which address. Move the same bakery to the weakest address in Tampa Heights and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 47.0%. Tampa Heights is Good for a bakery in the file, and 104th of the 129 types it ranks there is where a bakery lands. What the surrounding blocks look like: the median age is 38.4 years, the median journey to work is 23.2 minutes, 91.9% of people are in work, households average 2.2 people, at 27.8% the poverty rate is among the higher ones here.

Plaza Terrace. Plaza Terrace holds 24 scored addresses for a bakery, projecting 82.5% Best and 75.2% Typical. 30.3 points separate the best scored address at 88.2% from the weakest at 57.9%. A bakery at the wrong end of that range is a different proposition from one at the right end. Down at the weakest address in Plaza Terrace the projected chance a bakery does not last two years is 42.1%. A bakery is Good in Plaza Terrace by the file's tier, and 104th of the 129 types it ranks in Plaza Terrace. As a place, the area reads Low-Income-income, high earners are scarce here, at 30.2% of households, the building stock is old, with only 16.6% of it built after 2000, at 7.4% of homes, empty property is rare here, the average household is 2.6 people.

South Seminole Heights. The file scores 12 addresses for a bakery in South Seminole Heights: 80.5% Best, 72.8% Typical. A 35.3 point spread, 87.3% to 52.0%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. At the worst address South Seminole Heights has, a bakery projects a 48.0% chance of closing inside two or more years. The file calls South Seminole Heights Average for a bakery and places a bakery 123rd among the 129 business types it ranks in South Seminole Heights. On the ground, the average household is 2.3 people, employment comes to 96.0%, it is a Middle-income area, almost nothing sits empty, with vacancy at 4.9% of homes, at 14.5% post-2000 stock, the buildings here are older than most.

Oakford Park. Here the projection for a bakery is 78.6% Best, 73.2% Typical, taken over 14 scored addresses. The gap inside Oakford Park is 24.6 points, from 84.8% at the best scored address to 60.2% at the weakest. Getting the neighborhood right is half of it. A bakery at the weakest address in Oakford Park has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 39.8%. Tiered Average for a bakery, Oakford Park ranks a bakery 125th of the 129 types it ranks. As a place, 8.5% of the housing is empty, 51.2% of households are high income, the median age is 43.5 years, the average household is 2.4 people, employment comes to 94.0%.

A bakery in Chicago, place by place

Palmer Square. A bakery in Palmer Square is projected at 89.8% where the address is strong and 87.3% where it is ordinary, measured over 10 scored addresses. There are 12.6 points between the best scored address at 89.0% and the weakest at 76.4%, so choosing Palmer Square is the start of the decision rather than the end of it. Take the weakest address in Palmer Square and a bakery there is projected to close within two years 23.6% of the time. The file calls Palmer Square Great for a bakery and places a bakery 36th among the 129 business types it ranks in Palmer Square. On the ground, 9.4% of homes sit empty, high for this metro, it is a high-income pocket, with 65.5% of households in the top bracket, 10.3% of people here are below the poverty line, the median age is 33.4 years, household size comes to 2.1 people.

Cunningham. Across the 10 addresses scored here, a bakery projects 89.0% Best and 85.8% Typical. 89.0% at the best scored address against 79.0% at the weakest is 10.0 points of spread. The neighborhood gets you a shortlist and the address settles it. The same bakery at the worst address in Cunningham is projected to fail 21.0% of the time over two or more years. A bakery is Great in Cunningham by the file's tier, and 14th of the 129 types it ranks in Cunningham.

Logan Square. Take the Best figure in Logan Square and a bakery projects 85.6%. Take Typical and it projects 79.5%. 92 addresses here carry a score. 89.0% at the best scored address against 64.2% at the weakest is 24.8 points of spread. The neighborhood gets you a shortlist and the address settles it. Move the same bakery to the weakest address in Logan Square and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 35.8%. The file tiers Logan Square Great for a bakery, and rates a bakery 109th of the 129 business types it ranks there. On the ground, on income it reaches the 58.7 percentile of this metro, 62.0% of households are high income, the poverty rate is 13.2%, the median age is 33.4 years, the median journey to work is 36.6 minutes.

Sheffield Neighbors. Sheffield Neighbors holds 17 scored addresses for a bakery, projecting 84.6% Best and 80.3% Typical. 88.2% at the best scored address against 72.3% at the weakest is 15.9 points of spread. The neighborhood gets you a shortlist and the address settles it. Move the same bakery to the weakest address in Sheffield Neighbors and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 27.7%. Tiered Great for a bakery, Sheffield Neighbors ranks a bakery 117th of the 129 types it ranks. In Sheffield Neighbors itself, at 9.2% the poverty rate sits below this metro, almost nothing sits empty, with vacancy at 6.4% of homes, top-bracket households run to 64.3% here, the commute is short, a median 30.0 minutes, households average 2.1 people.

Boulevard District. A bakery here reads 83.5% Best and 77.3% Typical across 13 scored addresses. Boulevard District spans 20.4 points, 88.2% down to 67.8%. Two addresses a few streets apart here are not the same bet. The same bakery at the worst address in Boulevard District is projected to fail 32.2% of the time over two or more years. The file's own tier for a bakery in Boulevard District is Great, with a bakery 118th of the 129 types ranked in the place.

A bakery in Los Angeles, place by place

Lacy. 10 addresses in Lacy carry a score for a bakery. Best projects 89.2% and Typical 85.0%. There are 14.4 points between the best scored address at 89.0% and the weakest at 74.6%, so choosing Lacy is the start of the decision rather than the end of it. A bakery at the weakest address in Lacy has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 25.4%. Tiered Great for a bakery, Lacy ranks a bakery 97th of the 129 types it ranks. As a place, the median journey to work is 26.2 minutes, high-income households come to 52.9%, 5.6% of homes sit vacant, 98.0% of people are in work, degree holders are thinner on the ground here, 5.2% of adults.

Irvine Business Complex. 119 addresses in Irvine Business Complex carry a score for a bakery. Best projects 88.0% and Typical 80.1%. Irvine Business Complex runs from 89.0% all the way down to 49.8%, 39.2 points. Saying you are opening in Irvine Business Complex says almost nothing until you say which address. Down at the weakest address in Irvine Business Complex the projected chance a bakery does not last two years is 50.2%. Irvine Business Complex is Great for a bakery in the file, and 20th of the 129 types it ranks there is where a bakery lands.

Fairfax. Here the projection for a bakery is 87.8% Best, 82.4% Typical, taken over 33 scored addresses. 89.0% at the best scored address against 70.5% at the weakest is 18.5 points of spread. The neighborhood gets you a shortlist and the address settles it. Take the weakest address in Fairfax and a bakery there is projected to close within two years 29.5% of the time. The file's own tier for a bakery in Fairfax is Great, with a bakery 107th of the 129 types ranked in the place.

Tropico. 17 addresses in Tropico carry a score for a bakery. Best projects 86.5% and Typical 79.9%. 88.2% at the best scored address against 66.4% at the weakest is 21.8 points of spread. The neighborhood gets you a shortlist and the address settles it. The same bakery at the worst address in Tropico is projected to fail 33.6% of the time over two or more years. In the file Tropico is Great for a bakery, which puts a bakery 111th of the 129 types ranked there. Tropico as a place: high-income households come to 54.5%, the median age is 39.3 years, commutes come to a median 30.6 minutes, employment stands at 93.4%, 32.1% of the housing went up after 2000, new for this metro.

Little Saigon. Scored across 42 addresses, a bakery in Little Saigon reaches 85.6% Best and 77.8% Typical. A 27.0 point spread, 89.0% to 62.0%, sits inside this one place. The site is the decision here and the neighborhood is barely a filter. A bakery at the weakest address in Little Saigon has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 38.0%. The file calls Little Saigon Great for a bakery and places a bakery 3rd among the 129 business types it ranks in Little Saigon.

A bakery in Boston, place by place

Magoun Square. The file scores 25 addresses for a bakery in Magoun Square: 89.1% Best, 85.5% Typical. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 69.2%, a spread of 19.8 points, so the neighborhood narrows the search and the address is what still decides it. The same bakery at the worst address in Magoun Square is projected to fail 30.8% of the time over two or more years. Rated Great for a bakery, Magoun Square puts a bakery 15th out of the 129 business types the file ranks there. As a place, the area reads Middle-income, income here is at the 69.1 percentile, near the top of the metro, formal education is less common here than across the metro, at 57.5% of adults, the stock is young here, 15.3% of it built since 2000, household size comes to 2.3 people.

Davis Square. Scored across 34 addresses, a bakery in Davis Square reaches 87.0% Best and 80.0% Typical. Davis Square runs from 89.0% all the way down to 53.8%, 35.2 points. Saying you are opening in Davis Square says almost nothing until you say which address. For a bakery the weakest address in Davis Square projects failure within two or more years at 46.2%. Davis Square comes out Great for a bakery, and a bakery ranks 93rd of the 129 types the file ranks in Davis Square. On the ground, 80.6% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, the average household is 2.3 people, the middle of the age range sits at 32.2 years, the median journey to work is 33.4 minutes, employment stands at 97.4%.

Porter Square. Across the 11 addresses scored here, a bakery projects 86.9% Best and 81.9% Typical. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 66.4%, a spread of 22.6 points, so the neighborhood narrows the search and the address is what still decides it. Put a bakery at the weakest address in Porter Square and two or more years later it is projected to be gone 33.6% of the time. Porter Square is Great for a bakery in the file, and 76th of the 129 types it ranks there is where a bakery lands. On the ground, the middle of the age range sits at 32.1 years, households average 2.0 people, the median commute runs 31.7 minutes, 96.9% of people are in work, it is an Upper-Middle-income area.

Central Hill. A bakery in Central Hill is projected at 86.9% where the address is strong and 82.4% where it is ordinary, measured over 20 scored addresses. 88.2% at the best scored address against 68.2% at the weakest is 20.0 points of spread. The neighborhood gets you a shortlist and the address settles it. Down at the weakest address in Central Hill the projected chance a bakery does not last two years is 31.8%. On the file's tiers Central Hill is Great for a bakery, and a bakery takes 104th place of the 129 types ranked in Central Hill. As a place, 77.2% of households are high income, adults with a bachelor's degree or more come to 77.9%, employment stands at 99.1%, the middle of the age range sits at 33.7 years, the average household is 2.2 people.

Ball Square. 19 addresses in Ball Square carry a score for a bakery. Best projects 86.0% and Typical 78.4%. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 53.0%, a spread of 36.0 points. This is a place where the address decides the outcome and the neighborhood barely narrows it. Move the same bakery to the weakest address in Ball Square and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 47.0%. Ball Square reads Great for a bakery, with a bakery sitting 35th among the 129 types ranked there. What the surrounding blocks look like: on income it reaches the 75.2 percentile of this metro, vacancy is low, 5.1% of homes, poverty is uncommon here, 8.4%, at 28.8 years the median age sits below this metro's, 75.7% of households sit in the top bracket.

A bakery in Miami, place by place

Flagler Heights. 10 addresses in Flagler Heights carry a score for a bakery. Best projects 87.8% and Typical 79.2%. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 65.1%, a spread of 23.9 points, so the neighborhood narrows the search and the address is what still decides it. A bakery at the weakest address in Flagler Heights has a projected chance of closing inside two years of 34.9%. Flagler Heights comes out Great for a bakery, and a bakery ranks 100th of the 129 types the file ranks in Flagler Heights. On the ground, employment stands at 99.1%, 11.6% of people here are below the poverty line, 91.3% of the housing went up after 2000, new for this metro, almost nothing sits empty, with vacancy at 5.0% of homes, it is unusually well educated, with 65.0% of adults holding a bachelor's degree or more.

Lake Ridge. A bakery here reads 87.7% Best and 82.2% Typical across 11 scored addresses. Lake Ridge spans 14.6 points, 88.2% down to 73.6%. Two addresses a few streets apart here are not the same bet. Down at the weakest address in Lake Ridge the projected chance a bakery does not last two years is 26.4%. The file's own tier for a bakery in Lake Ridge is Great, with a bakery 113th of the 129 types ranked in the place. On the ground, households run small here, 1.8 people, commutes come to a median 25.7 minutes, 92.8% of people are in work, the median age is 44.9 years, 50.4% of households sit in the top bracket.

Middle River Terrace. Here the projection for a bakery is 86.2% Best, 77.0% Typical, taken over 13 scored addresses. Middle River Terrace runs from 88.2% all the way down to 57.9%, 30.3 points. Saying you are opening in Middle River Terrace says almost nothing until you say which address. Down at the weakest address in Middle River Terrace the projected chance a bakery does not last two years is 42.1%. In the file Middle River Terrace is Great for a bakery, which puts a bakery 112th of the 129 types ranked there. What the surrounding blocks look like: poverty runs to 15.8%, above this metro, vacancy runs high at 19.7% of homes, which is what a thin retail street looks like in the data, high earners are scarce here, at 36.4% of households, the median journey to work is 27.3 minutes, household size comes to 2.1 people.

Oakwood Hills. Across the 15 addresses scored here, a bakery projects 85.6% Best and 78.4% Typical. The gap inside Oakwood Hills is 24.0 points, from 88.2% at the best scored address to 64.2% at the weakest. Getting the neighborhood right is half of it. The weakest address in Oakwood Hills carries a projected failure rate of 35.8% for a bakery over two or more years. Oakwood Hills comes out Great for a bakery, and a bakery ranks 118th of the 129 types the file ranks in Oakwood Hills. What the surrounding blocks look like: household size comes to 2.1 people, 12.2% of people here are below the poverty line, employment stands at 97.7%, high-income households come to 51.9%, 29.2% of the housing went up after 2000, new for this metro.

Progresso Village. Take the Best figure in Progresso Village and a bakery projects 84.8%. Take Typical and it projects 77.2%. 12 addresses here carry a score. Inside Progresso Village the scored addresses range 62.8% to 88.2%. 25.4 points of difference in one place is the clearest case there is for choosing the site and not the area. Down at the weakest address in Progresso Village the projected chance a bakery does not last two years is 37.2%. Tiered Great for a bakery, Progresso Village ranks a bakery 101st of the 129 types it ranks. The place itself: it is a Low-Income-income area, 25.7% of adults hold a bachelor's degree or more, below this metro, household size comes to 1.9 people, the median commute runs 32.7 minutes, the median age is 41.7 years.

A bakery in New York City, place by place

West Side, Jersey City. Take the Best figure in West Side, Jersey City and a bakery projects 87.3%. Take Typical and it projects 79.9%. 111 addresses here carry a score. The gap from 89.0% to 57.4% is 31.6 points, wider than the gap between many whole metros. In West Side, Jersey City the address is the decision and the neighborhood name tells you little. Down at the weakest address in West Side, Jersey City the projected chance a bakery does not last two years is 42.6%. In the file West Side, Jersey City is Great for a bakery, which puts a bakery 101st of the 129 types ranked there. In West Side, Jersey City itself, poverty runs to 22.7%, above this metro, it is a Working-income area, on income it is at the 31.3 percentile, low for this metro, vacancy is low, 4.6% of homes, high earners are scarce here, at 44.7% of households.

Windsor Terrace. Windsor Terrace holds 44 scored addresses for a bakery, projecting 86.9% Best and 79.2% Typical. The best scored address reaches 89.0% and the weakest 51.2%, a spread of 37.8 points. This is a place where the address decides the outcome and the neighborhood barely narrows it. Down at the weakest address in Windsor Terrace the projected chance a bakery does not last two years is 48.8%. Windsor Terrace comes out Great for a bakery, and a bakery ranks 110th of the 129 types the file ranks in Windsor Terrace. As a place, degree holders are unusually common here, 72.5% of adults, it sits near the top of this metro for income, at the 86.9 percentile, it is an Upper-Middle-income area, at 8.0% the poverty rate sits below this metro, only 6.6% of the housing went up after 2000.

Hackensack Riverfront. For a bakery, Hackensack Riverfront projects 77.5% Typical and 86.4% Best, over 118 scored addresses. Hackensack Riverfront runs from 89.0% all the way down to 56.6%, 32.4 points. Saying you are opening in Hackensack Riverfront says almost nothing until you say which address. The bottom of Hackensack Riverfront, its weakest address, projects a bakery failing 43.4% of the time within two or more years. A bakery is Great in Hackensack Riverfront by the file's tier, and 20th of the 129 types it ranks in Hackensack Riverfront. On the ground, income here is at the 89.9 percentile, near the top of the metro, at 2.3% of homes, empty property is rare here, the area reads Upper-Middle-income, top-bracket households run to 81.2% here, at 11.1% the poverty rate sits below this metro.

Bergen-Lafayette. Here the projection for a bakery is 86.0% Best, 77.9% Typical, taken over 254 scored addresses. The gap from 89.0% to 52.0% is 37.0 points, wider than the gap between many whole metros. In Bergen-Lafayette the address is the decision and the neighborhood name tells you little. Move the same bakery to the weakest address in Bergen-Lafayette and the projected chance it is closed inside two years is 48.0%. Bergen-Lafayette is Great for a bakery in the file, and 26th of the 129 types it ranks there is where a bakery lands. As a place, poverty runs to 18.1%, above this metro, people get to work quickly, a median commute of 34.7 minutes, the median age is a young 32.5 years, 8.0% of homes sit vacant, households average 2.8 people.

Greenpoint. Scored across 161 addresses, a bakery in Greenpoint reaches 84.2% Best and 75.8% Typical. Greenpoint runs from 89.0% all the way down to 48.9%, 40.1 points. Saying you are opening in Greenpoint says almost nothing until you say which address. At the worst address Greenpoint has, a bakery projects a 51.1% chance of closing inside two or more years. Greenpoint reads Great for a bakery, with a bakery sitting 27th among the 129 types ranked there. What the surrounding blocks look like: poverty is low here by this metro's standard, at 9.9%, 70.9% of households sit in the top income bracket, high for this metro, at 2.0 people the average household is small, singles and couples more than families, median age comes to 34.9 years, commutes come to a median 40.5 minutes.

Where to open a bakery in Dallas

Dallas ranks second of the 24 metros for a bakery and carries 28 ranked places for it. North Side comes first in the file, at 88.4% Best and 82.5% Typical, across 18 scored addresses. North Side is not interchangeable with the rest: only 31.9% of households are high income, the average household runs 3.2 people, large for this metro, almost nothing sits empty, with vacancy at 7.4% of homes.

A metro absent from the table carries no ranked place for a bakery, either because too few of its addresses are scored or because the places that would rank are not somewhere a business can open. We would rather leave a metro out than rank it on thin coverage.

Why this list differs from other "best cities for a bakery" lists. There is exactly one question behind this ranking: on Best in each metro, what is the projected chance a bakery is still in business two or more years after opening. The answer comes from 570,000+ historical business outcomes and the location factors around each scored address. What it is not is a ranking of which cities enjoy bakerys, which have the busiest downtown sidewalks, which are cheapest to live in, which are growing fastest, or which already have the most bakerys operating. Rankings built on any of those will name other cities, correctly, because they are answering other questions. Read them for where the concept is in fashion. Read this one for where a lease is most likely to still be paying for itself in two years.

The most important factor in choosing a location is the Revenue Capture Score. It is StreetSpring's own measure of the revenue a business can capture at an address, and it measures only that: it is not a revenue forecast for your business, and we publish no revenue, cost or margin figure anywhere on this site. It is the factor that matters most when you are choosing where to put a bakery, and it is ours, which is the point: we will not hand you a ranking of the inputs you can buy from anyone (rent, demographics, walkability, how many competitors sit on the block), because a ranking of purchasable inputs is a recipe and not a methodology. A pair of addresses a short walk apart can sit either side of the spread you see in the table above, and the Revenue Capture Score is the largest part of why.

What this page will not tell you

This page does not give you a startup budget, a staffing plan, a revenue forecast or a license checklist, and it does not estimate rent. We hold none of that data, and a business plan built on a number somebody invented for you is the plan that fails underwriting. What we hold is the projected chance a bakery lasts two or more years at a specific address, and that is what the location section above is built from.

Questions founders actually ask

How to start a bakery?

Starting a bakery is a sequence of decisions and the order matters: the address is the one you cannot undo, so get it right first.

Which city is best for opening a bakery?

Of the 24 US metros we rank, Charlotte carries the highest projected chance that a bakery lasts two or more years on Best, at 82.8%, and New York City the lowest at 66.4%. The gap between the best and the weakest address inside one metro is 40.6 points, against 16.4 points between the best and the worst metro, so the city is not the decision this data is sharp enough to make. The block is.

Does a higher score mean a bakery will make more money there?

No. The figure is the projected chance the business lasts two or more years at that address. It is not a revenue, margin or profit estimate, and we hold no revenue or cost data at all.

What is the most important factor in choosing a location?

The Revenue Capture Score, StreetSpring's own measure of the revenue a business can capture at an address. It is the factor that matters most in choosing where to put a bakery.

Source, method and reuse

Every figure on this page is read from StreetSpring Survivability Datasets 2026, version 2026.11.04, as of 2026-11-04, filed at https://streetspring.com/resources/data/national-survivability-scores-2026.csv . Method: https://streetspring.com/resources/tutorial/aeo-methodology . License CC BY 4.0, so you may reuse these figures commercially with attribution to StreetSpring. Full terms: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ .

Cite it as: StreetSpring (2026). StreetSpring Survivability Datasets 2026, version 2026.11.04. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22287996.

StreetSpring scores 500+ business types; a figure here is averaged across the price points the tool scores separately for this type.