City Survivability Rankings for Bakery
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Bakeries across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Bakery to succeed.
Quick Summary
- The highest-survivability city for Bakery is Dallas — 75% average survivability
- 16 of 24 analyzed US metros score above 70% for Bakery survivability
- The lowest-ranked city is Detroit at 69%
- National average survivability score for Bakery: 70.9%
- Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 24 US metro areas · Full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- Top Cities for Bakeries
- Key Insights
- What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
- Related Resources
- How current is this ranking?
- Can a Bakery succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?
- What tools can help me choose the right city for a Bakery?
- Which US city has the best survivability for Bakeries?
Summary
According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Dallas ranks as the #1 city for opening a Bakery in the United States, with an average 75% chance of surviving more than 2 years. Following close behind are Miami with 74%, and Orlando with 72%. Bakeries sit at a national average of 70.9% survivability across our 24-city analysis, with Dallas leading the field by a meaningful margin. Keep in mind that results depend heavily on the exact location; strong sites often exist within cities that seem less favorable overall. Pair these survivability scores with StreetSpring's live tool to get a real-time view before making a final decision.
Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →
Bakery city survivability rankings — Dallas leads among 24 US metros at 75% in 2026
All 24 Cities Ranked for Bakeries
Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 24 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Bakeries:
1. Dallas Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Best locations: 82.8% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 71.8% – 76.7%
- Challenging locations: 52.0% – 67.8%
Why coastal vs. inland matters less than you'd think
2. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
- Best locations: 82.6% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 71.0% – 76.4%
- Challenging locations: 48.0% – 66.3%
3. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
- Best locations: 81.7% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 69.2% – 74.9%
- Challenging locations: 46.0% – 64.5%
4. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- Best locations: 81.4% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 68.3% – 74.4%
- Challenging locations: 42.0% – 62.9%
5. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
- Best locations: 80.0% – 90.0%
- Average locations: 68.4% – 74.0%
- Challenging locations: 44.0% – 63.4%
6. San Antonio Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
- Best locations: 80.0% – 90.0%
- Average locations: 68.9% – 74.0%
- Challenging locations: 48.0% – 64.6%
7. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Best locations: 80.8% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 68.8% – 74.1%
- Challenging locations: 48.0% – 64.6%
8. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
- Best locations: 81.1% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 67.9% – 73.9%
- Challenging locations: 43.0% – 62.8%
9. St Louis
- Best locations: 81.0% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 67.6% – 73.8%
- Challenging locations: 42.0% – 62.4%
10. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO
- Best locations: 79.5% – 90.0%
- Average locations: 67.7% – 73.2%
- Challenging locations: 44.0% – 62.8%
11. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
- Best locations: 80.3% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 67.6% – 73.3%
- Challenging locations: 44.0% – 62.8%
12. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
- Best locations: 79.4% – 90.0%
- Average locations: 67.5% – 73.1%
- Challenging locations: 43.0% – 62.5%
The metro-level signals behind these scores
13. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
- Best locations: 79.0% – 89.0%
- Average locations: 67.4% – 72.9%
- Challenging locations: 43.0% – 62.4%
14. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
- Best locations: 80.3% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 67.6% – 73.3%
- Challenging locations: 45.0% – 63.0%
15. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
- Best locations: 80.7% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 66.9% – 73.3%
- Challenging locations: 39.0% – 61.2%
16. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN
- Best locations: 79.9% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 66.3% – 72.7%
- Challenging locations: 39.0% – 60.7%
17. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
- Best locations: 80.3% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 66.5% – 72.7%
- Challenging locations: 41.0% – 61.3%
18. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
- Best locations: 79.8% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 66.7% – 72.5%
- Challenging locations: 43.0% – 61.8%
19. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
- Best locations: 79.3% – 91.0%
- Average locations: 66.5% – 72.2%
- Challenging locations: 43.0% – 61.7%
20. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
- Best locations: 80.6% – 94.0%
- Average locations: 66.5% – 72.5%
- Challenging locations: 44.0% – 61.9%
21. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
- Best locations: 80.1% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 66.1% – 72.3%
- Challenging locations: 41.0% – 60.9%
22. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
- Best locations: 79.0% – 91.0%
- Average locations: 66.0% – 71.9%
- Challenging locations: 42.0% – 61.1%
23. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
- Best locations: 79.9% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 65.8% – 72.0%
- Challenging locations: 41.0% – 60.7%
24. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
- Best locations: 79.3% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 65.5% – 71.7%
- Challenging locations: 41.0% – 60.5%
Key Insights
| Comparison factor | Top-tier city pattern | Bottom-tier city pattern |
|---|---|---|
| Daytime vs residential population mix | Cities with strong daytime employment density near the storefront catchment — CBD-adjacent mixed-use corridors. | Bedroom-community metros where daytime population evaporates by 9am and consumption shifts to 6pm dinner-only windows. |
| Anchor-tenant density | Cities with high concentration of universities, hospitals, transit hubs within a 1-mile radius of typical storefronts. | Cities where anchor institutions are isolated in suburbs or single-purpose campuses with no street-level spillover. |
| Average commercial rent per sqft | Cities where the median commercial rate fits the subtype's typical revenue-per-sqft envelope (rent < 10% of expected gross). | Cities where rents have outpaced revenue growth, pushing rent-burden ratios past 15%. |
Wide variation between cities: The difference between the #1 city (Dallas at 74.5%) and the #24 city (Detroit at 68.9%) is 5.7 percentage points. The 0.4-point gap between top cities suggests that Bakeries viability varies meaningfully across major US metros, though neighborhood-level differences remain significant.
National average: Across all 24 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Bakery is 70.9%.
What's Driving the Strongest Markets
The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Bakeries:
- Strong survivability signals: Dallas leads with a 75% average survivability score for Bakeries — significantly above the national average for this business category.
- Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Bakeries, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
- Supply chain access: Cities at the top of this ranking benefit from mature supplier networks for this category, reducing operating costs and inventory lead times.
- Low market saturation: Top cities for Bakeries have fewer direct competitors per square mile than lower-ranked metros, leaving meaningful whitespace for well-positioned new entrants.
StreetSpring uses AI to predict business survivability across U.S. neighborhoods — trusted by real estate professionals and entrepreneurs nationwide. Our analysis covers businesses serving the 24 largest metros in America. Every score is produced by our in-house models, continuously refined against real-world business outcomes.
Visual Data
Related Resources
City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:
- Business Survivability Rankings: Dallas
- Business Survivability Rankings: Miami
- Business Survivability Rankings: Orlando
- Business Survivability Rankings: Tampa Bay
- Business Survivability Rankings: Portland
National guides:
- National Neighborhood Survivability Rankings for Bakeries
- Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: Dallas
How current is this ranking?
Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates — particularly for Bakeries, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.
Are top-10 cities the only viable markets for Bakeries?
Yes — our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Bakeries in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Bakeries in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align — even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.
What tools can help me choose the right city for a Bakery?
StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Bakeries across all 24 metros we track. For this category specifically, the tool surfaces competition density, consumer spending index for Bakeries, and commercial vacancy rates — the factors that most consistently predict whether a Bakery will still be operating after two years. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.
Try the Survivability Score tool →
Which US city has the best survivability for Bakeries?
Dallas ranks as the #1 city in the US for Bakeries survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average score of 75%. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Dallas, a Bakery has approximately a 75% chance of still operating after two years — above the national average for this category. Miami ranks second, followed by Orlando. The full ranking reflects data across 24 major US metro areas — see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.
Last reviewed by Bobby Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring — May 14, 2026
Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and foot traffic data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.
Methodology: City rankings aggregate neighborhood-level Survivability Scores (max, average, and min) across all analyzed neighborhoods in each metro area. Rankings reflect average conditions but do not account for variation within cities. Coverage includes 24 major US metropolitan areas: Dallas, Miami, Orlando, Tampa Bay, Portland, San Antonio, Phoenix, Los Angeles, St Louis, Denver, Houston, San Francisco, San Diego, Charlotte, New York City, Chicago, Washington DC, Boston, Seattle, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Detroit.