Business Survivability Rankings: Minneapolis
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks business survivability in Minneapolis by survivability score. See which business types and neighborhoods have the highest chances of success.
Quick Summary
- Best business: Ukrainian Restaurant in Morris Park (>97% survival rate)
- 523 business-location combinations exceed 90% survival rates in Minneapolis
- City average: 73% chance of lasting 2+ years
- Rankings updated quarterly with latest market data
- Detailed methodology
Last reviewed: April 2026 by Bobby Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring
Table of Contents
- Summary
- What Are My Chances of Success?
- Business Survivability Rankings
- Understanding Survivability Ranges
- Most Important Factors
- Key Takeaways
- Related Resources
Summary
Based on StreetSpring's latest 2026 market analysis, 523 business-location combinations in Minneapolis demonstrate 90%+ survival rates, with Ukrainian Restaurant in Morris Park ranking highest at >97%. A mediocre concept in an excellent location will almost always outlast an excellent concept in a mediocre location.
Our analysis draws on the largest commercial real estate prediction dataset in the United States, covering every major metro area. The platform analyzes competition, mobility, spending, and demographic data across 24 metros to produce these rankings.
Notably, our analysis reveals significant variation across neighborhoods. The best locations offer >97% survival probability, while less optimal areas show considerably lower rates.
What Are My Chances of Success Opening a Business in Minneapolis?
A Minneapolis business has a 73% average chance of lasting more than 2 years with current market dynamics.
At the same time, where you open is the primary driver of whether you survive or fail. Revenue Capture Score matters more than any other single metric when predicting business outcomes. The Revenue Capture Score reflects not just how many customers are nearby, but how many of those customers your business can realistically attract away from competitors.
What New Businesses Would Be the Most Successful in Minneapolis?
The graph below depicts the distribution of business outcomes across Minneapolis by survivability score bracket:
Minneapolis: Ukrainian Restaurant ranks #1 in survivability at >97% — 2026 StreetSpring analysis
The top 10 business opportunities in Minneapolis are:
| Rank | Business Type | Neighborhood | Best Locations | Average Locations | Challenging Locations | Location Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ukrainian Restaurant | Morris Park | 96.0% – 97.0% | 84.8% – 89.2% | 73.8% – 77.2% | ~13% |
| 2 | Deli | Morris Park | 96.3% – 97.0% | 85.4% – 88.5% | 69.4% – 72.9% | ~12% |
| 3 | Scandinavian Restaurant | Morris Park | 94.8% – 97.0% | 85.1% – 88.1% | 70.7% – 73.9% | ~12% |
| 4 | Scandinavian Restaurant | Diamond Lake | 93.8% – 97.0% | 74.7% – 77.7% | 65.7% – 68.9% | ~26% |
| 5 | French Restaurant | Diamond Lake | 94.2% – 97.0% | 76.8% – 79.9% | 63.1% – 66.9% | ~23% |
| 6 | Home Improvement Store | Kenny | 92.5% – 97.0% | 61.8% – 67.1% | 44.4% – 49.9% | ~49% |
| 7 | Ukrainian Restaurant | Plymouth | 94.0% – 97.0% | 78.2% – 82.6% | 65.8% – 69.2% | ~19% |
| 8 | Mexican Restaurant | Plymouth | 94.4% – 97.0% | 75.9% – 79.7% | 60.5% – 64.4% | ~23% |
| 9 | American Restaurant | West Side | 93.9% – 97.0% | 81.0% – 84.2% | 69.3% – 73.2% | ~16% |
| 10 | Russian Restaurant | Diamond Lake | 93.1% – 96.6% | 76.0% – 79.0% | 62.0% – 65.8% | ~23% |
A single street can contain both excellent and poor locations for the same business type, which is why block-level data matters more than neighborhood averages. Quarterly rankings capture broad trends, but our live platform tracks weekly changes in competition density and consumer spending at the address level.
Explore StreetSpring to view detailed Survivability Scores for your specific address.
Understanding Survivability Ranges
Individual outcomes differ from these averages because each storefront has unique characteristics, such as signage visibility, accessibility by car and foot, income and spending patterns of nearby residents, and the proportion of complementary vs. competing tenants in the immediate area.
Upper and lower bounds represent the best and most challenging conditions within each location tier, while the spread between them signals how volatile that local market is.
Consider: an Ukrainian Restaurant showing 84.8% – 89.2% at average locations means most businesses in this category fall within this range. A best-in-class location (>97% survival) offers roughly 13% more expected business longevity than an average location (87%), because a higher survival probability translates directly into more operating time to generate revenue. Conversely, a challenging location (75%) represents 14% less expected longevity than the average — a meaningful risk differential that should factor into lease negotiations and capital planning. Execution quality, market timing, and exact storefront features determine your position within the range. A tight range suggests a stable, predictable market; a wide range indicates greater upside — and downside.
What Are the Most Important Factors for Businesses in Minneapolis?
Revenue Capture Score
In our models, Revenue Capture Score consistently outperforms every other variable in predicting two-year survival. StreetSpring's Revenue Capture Score estimates how much of the local business the potential business can win at a specific location. One illustration of this: an Ukrainian Restaurant in a high-revenue-capture area might survive even with moderate competition, while the same business in a low-capture area could struggle despite less competition.
Competition Quality and Saturation
Clustering works when it draws more customers to the area than any single business could alone. Conversely, too many operators chasing the same customers leads to margin compression that makes survival increasingly unlikely.
Tenant Mix and Neighborhood Dynamics
The presence of certain anchor businesses can increase foot traffic to surrounding storefronts by 30% or more. Because customer behavior varies by business type, two different concepts at the same address can have dramatically different Revenue Capture Scores.
Hyperlocal Variation
Foot traffic patterns, parking access, and line-of-sight visibility all change within a few hundred feet and materially affect survivability scores. With StreetSpring, you can see the precise probability of success for countless business models at any exact location.
What Is the #1 Business to Start in Minneapolis?
Ukrainian Restaurant in Morris Park with >97% survivability based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis of 4,650 business and neighborhood combinations.
How Accurate Is StreetSpring's Survival Prediction?
StreetSpring's models achieve 95–99% accuracy depending on business type and location. Predictions are based on 100+ factors including competition density, consumer spending, mobility patterns, and historical performance data, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3% for Survivability Scores. See our full methodology at streetspring.com/resources/tutorial/methodology. Review our methodology and data sources.
What Makes Minneapolis Good for New Businesses?
Minneapolis offers 523 business-location combinations with 90% or higher survival rates based on latest data. StreetSpring uses AI to predict business survivability across U.S. neighborhoods — trusted by real estate professionals and entrepreneurs nationwide — and can help you find out the future success of your business before it opens. Our prediction models incorporate hundreds of thousands of historical business outcomes to calibrate accuracy.
How Often Are These Rankings Updated?
Rankings for Minneapolis are updated quarterly with the latest business opening and closure data and market conditions. Last updated: 2026-Q1. The next scheduled update for Minneapolis will incorporate Q2 2026 data.
Can I Get Predictions for a Specific Address in Minneapolis?
Yes. Visit StreetSpring.com to analyze any storefront address in Minneapolis with address-specific survivability predictions for over 700 business types.
What Factors Determine Business Survivability in Minneapolis?
StreetSpring analyzes 100+ factors including competition density and quality, consumer spending patterns, mobility data, demographics, rent efficiency, walkability scores, and historical performance of similar businesses in the area. StreetSpring relies on its own proprietary forecasting engine to deliver these predictions.
Are These Predictions Guaranteed?
Survivability predictions are probabilistic, not guaranteed. That said, a 95–99% accuracy rate provides a substantial advantage over conventional location selection, which typically relies on gut instinct and anecdotal comparables. Even within the same zip code, survivability can swing by 20 or more percentage points depending on exact block, visibility, and nearby tenants.
How Do Landlords Identify the Best Tenant for Their Property?
What's true for a neighborhood isn't necessarily true for your specific building. By reviewing survivability scores before leasing, landlords can avoid placing tenants in locations where their business type is likely to fail. Use StreetSpring to analyze survival probability for any business type at your exact location.
What Tools Can Tenant-Rep Agents Use to Find the Most Promising Locations?
The gap between traditional site selection methods and data-driven approaches has widened as AI prediction accuracy has improved. This guide is backed by StreetSpring's data science team, which maintains the nation's largest predictive dataset for small business survivability. Visit StreetSpring to run a free survivability check on your target storefront.
Key Takeaways
Data Summary: 523 business-location combinations exceed 90% survival in Minneapolis. The top opportunity is Ukrainian Restaurant in Morris Park at >97% survival. The city average is 73% two-year survival rate across 4,650 business and neighborhood combinations analyzed.
Action Items: Start with the top-ranked opportunities — Ukrainian Restaurant in Morris Park — and explore adjacent neighborhoods for similar conditions. Analyze specific storefronts using StreetSpring's address-level tool, and weigh competitive saturation and local spending patterns before making a lease decision in Minneapolis.
Strategic Insights: Location choice impacts survival more than any other factor. Those scores shift from block to block as local conditions change. Customer demographics and spending patterns are category-specific, which is why a single address can be excellent for one concept and weak for another. Revenue Capture Score is the single best predictor of success.
Related Resources
- Minneapolis Business Survivability Data 2026
- StreetSpring Methodology and Data Sources
- Understand the survival rate crisis
Technical note: Aggregated survivability rankings for Minneapolis are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
View technical data for Minneapolis
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and foot traffic data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.