Covering the Phoenix metro, including Mesa and Chandler. No account, no paywall, nothing to buy. Built for anyone deciding where to open, and for the people who advise them.
The projected chance that a specific business type lasts two or more years at a specific address.
Most people choose a location on rent, on a walk-through, and on a feeling about foot traffic. Those are the things you can see standing on the sidewalk. What you cannot see is whether that block has actually supported your kind of business over time, or whether the businesses that lasted there were a different kind entirely.
That question is answerable before a lease is signed, and it is what this research covers for Phoenix.
Across 28 ranked Phoenix neighborhoods, the projected chance of lasting two or more years at a good address runs from 54.8% to 82.2% for Coffee Shop, a spread of 27.4 percentage points, and from 76.8% to 89.6% for Physical Therapy, a spread of only 12.8, the narrowest fully measured range in Phoenix (section 3 says what that means). The address matters for both, and far more for one than for the other.
This is the single most useful thing to tell someone early. It tells them how much of their energy belongs on the site search.
| Business type | Good-address range across ranked Phoenix neighborhoods | Spread | How Phoenix ranks (of 22 metros compared) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coffee Shop | 54.8% to 82.2% | 27.4 pp | #21 of 22 metros |
| Pet Boarding | 57.1% to 84.1% | 27.0 pp | #21 of 22 metros |
| Tattoo & Piercing | 56.6% to 83.1% | 26.5 pp | #21 of 22 metros |
| Hair Salon | 56.6% to 81.8% | 25.2 pp | #22 of 22 metros |
| Steakhouse | 58.5% to 83.6% | 25.1 pp | #15 of 22 metros |
A range is fully measured when neither end draws on a scored location sitting at the highest or lowest figure the national file gives that business type in Phoenix. 108 of the 129 business types ranked across Phoenix neighborhoods qualify. A range that reaches either limit is measured only up to that limit, so it could be wider than it prints, and it is left out of this table.
| Business type | Good-address range across ranked Phoenix neighborhoods | Spread | How Phoenix ranks (of 22 metros compared) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Physical Therapy | 76.8% to 89.6% | 12.8 pp | #3 of 22 metros |
| Liquor / Alcohol Store | 70.2% to 84.6% | 14.4 pp | #4 of 22 metros |
| Boutique | 65.6% to 84.6% | 19.0 pp | #3 of 22 metros |
| Grocery Store | 64.8% to 84.6% | 19.8 pp | #11 of 22 metros |
| Gym | 62.4% to 82.2% | 19.8 pp | #20 of 22 metros |
Business types that share every figure in a row are shown together, never cut by name.
| Business type | Phoenix at a good address | Typical address | How Phoenix ranks (of 22 metros compared) | Against the top other metro |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florist | 83.7% | 72.5% | #3 of 22 metros | behind by 0.8 pts |
| Boutique | 83.7% | 72.4% | #3 of 22 metros | behind by 0.8 pts |
| Furniture Store | 83.7% | 72.3% | #3 of 22 metros | behind by 0.8 pts |
| Massage Therapy | 82.7% | 72.8% | #3 of 22 metros | behind by 0.8 pts |
| Dentist | 88.7% | 79.6% | #3 of 22 metros | behind by 0.9 pts |
Across 28 ranked Phoenix neighborhoods, Superstition Springs ranks first, at 84.0% projected two-year survival at a good address (72.3% at a typical address). Rio Vista ranks last, at 62.6% (56.0% at a typical address).
Averages hide the thing that matters. A single block can beat an entire neighborhood's ranking. Use the neighborhood view to narrow a search, not to rule an area out.
The model is trained on 570,000+ historical business outcomes across 24 U.S. metros and weighs 100+ location factors. The most important number in a location decision is our proprietary Revenue Capture Score: the revenue a business can capture at that address, from its projected market share against forecasted local spend. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool. The figures on this page come from the published files, which carry one figure per base business type, averaged across its price points.
Data version 2026.10.05 (as of 2026-10-05). Geographic scope: the Phoenix metro area, 96 neighborhoods. "At a good address" is the 90th percentile of a neighborhood's scored locations, the figure the files rank on; ranks against other metros count the 22 metros compared, in the national file's own order.
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Business Planning, Market Research, Site Selection, or Starting a Business.
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I am Bobby, the founder. I built StreetSpring after watching good operators sign leases on blocks that had never supported their kind of business. If you want the PDF, want to book a session, or think something on this page is wrong, write to me directly.
Bobby | StreetSpring