Covering the Chicago metro, including Naperville and Elgin. No account, no paywall, nothing to buy. Built for anyone deciding where to open, and for the people who advise them.
The projected chance that a specific business type lasts two or more years at a specific address.
Most people choose a location on rent, on a walk-through, and on a feeling about foot traffic. Those are the things you can see standing on the sidewalk. What you cannot see is whether that block has actually supported your kind of business over time, or whether the businesses that lasted there were a different kind entirely.
That question is answerable before a lease is signed, and it is what this research covers for Chicago.
Across 99 ranked Chicago neighborhoods, the projected chance of lasting two or more years at a good address runs from 49.8% to 83.6% for Mixed Martial Arts, a spread of 33.8 percentage points, and from 58.8% to 83.6% for Nail Salon, a spread of 24.8, the narrowest fully measured range in Chicago (section 3 says what that means). The address matters more for one than for the other.
This is the single most useful thing to tell someone early. It tells them how much of their energy belongs on the site search.
| Business type | Good-address range across ranked Chicago neighborhoods | Spread | How Chicago ranks (of 22 metros compared) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mixed Martial Arts | 49.8% to 83.6% | 33.8 pp | #21 of 22 metros |
| Day Care Center | 52.2% to 85.6% | 33.4 pp | #21 of 22 metros |
| Watch Store / Repair | 51.2% to 84.6% | 33.4 pp | #21 of 22 metros |
| Music Store | 51.7% to 84.6% | 32.9 pp | #21 of 22 metros |
| Boutique | 52.6% to 85.0%† | 32.4† pp | #8 of 22 metros |
A range is fully measured when neither end draws on a scored location sitting at the highest or lowest figure the national file gives that business type in Chicago. 12 of the 129 business types ranked across Chicago neighborhoods qualify. A range that reaches either limit is measured only up to that limit, so it could be wider than it prints, and it is left out of this table.
| Business type | Good-address range across ranked Chicago neighborhoods | Spread | How Chicago ranks (of 22 metros compared) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nail Salon | 58.8% to 83.6% | 24.8 pp | #16 of 22 metros |
| Barber Shop | 58.4% to 83.6% | 25.2 pp | #17 of 22 metros |
| Tanning | 58.4% to 83.6% | 25.2 pp | #17 of 22 metros |
| Tattoo & Piercing | 56.6% to 83.6% | 27.0 pp | #17 of 22 metros |
| Cosmetics Shop | 57.1% to 84.6% | 27.5 pp | #17 of 22 metros |
Business types that share every figure in a row are shown together, never cut by name.
† the highest figure the national file gives that business type anywhere in Chicago. Ranked neighborhoods can share it, and a range or spread that reaches it is measured up to that limit, not beyond it.
| Business type | Chicago at a good address | Typical address | How Chicago ranks (of 22 metros compared) | Against the top other metro |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laundromat | 84.0% | 71.8% | #1 of 22 metros | ahead by 0.5 pts |
| Bar | 84.0% | 70.2% | #1 of 22 metros | ahead by 0.5 pts |
| Chiropractor | 89.6% | 78.4% | #1 of 22 metros | ahead by 0.4 pts |
| Convenience Store | 84.5% | 76.1% | #1 of 22 metros | level |
| Cafe | 83.5% | 75.1% | #1 of 22 metros | level |
Across 99 ranked Chicago neighborhoods, Palmer Square ranks first, at 84.4% projected two-year survival at a good address (83.2% at a typical address). Marynook ranks last, at 59.1% (54.9% at a typical address).
Averages hide the thing that matters. A single block can beat an entire neighborhood's ranking. Use the neighborhood view to narrow a search, not to rule an area out.
The model is trained on 570,000+ historical business outcomes across 24 U.S. metros and weighs 100+ location factors. The most important number in a location decision is our proprietary Revenue Capture Score: the revenue a business can capture at that address, from its projected market share against forecasted local spend. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool. The figures on this page come from the published files, which carry one figure per base business type, averaged across its price points.
Data version 2026.10.05 (as of 2026-10-05). Geographic scope: the Chicago metro area, 165 neighborhoods. "At a good address" is the 90th percentile of a neighborhood's scored locations, the figure the files rank on; ranks against other metros count the 22 metros compared, in the national file's own order.
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I am Bobby, the founder. I built StreetSpring after watching good operators sign leases on blocks that had never supported their kind of business. If you want the PDF, want to book a session, or think something on this page is wrong, write to me directly.
Bobby | StreetSpring