StreetSpring Data Report
The business-type and location pairings the data says to think twice about. Not opinion: the projected chance of lasting two or more years across 22 U.S. metros, from a model trained on 570,000+ historical business outcomes.
StreetSpring's Survivability Score is the projected chance that a specific business type lasts two or more years at a specific address. A score of 78% means the model projects a 78% chance that business is still open two years after opening at that exact location.
Every percentage below is that measure (never the model's raw output), read from StreetSpring's published datasets, where it is summarized by business type and metro in two ways: at a good address, the 90th percentile of the metro's scored locations and the basis of every ranking here, and at a typical address, the average. "Worst bet" here means the lowest projected chance of lasting two or more years, not a judgment about the business itself.
Dallas is held out of this page while its census inputs are repaired and the metro is rescored; no figure for it is shown until then. Its scores stay in the published files.
San Antonio is held out of this page because the neighborhoods StreetSpring can map there cover too little of the metro to compare fairly; no figure for it is shown until that improves. Its scores stay in the published files.
The business-type and metro pairings with the lowest projected chance of lasting two or more years, even at a good address. The last column is the metro's rank for that business type among the 22 metros compared here, in the national file's own order. No business type appears more than twice. The "look twice before you sign" list.
| # | Business type | Metro | At a good address | Typical address | Metro's rank for the type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Music Store | New York City | 69.2% | 56.5% | 22 of 22 |
| 2 | Watch Store / Repair | New York City | 69.2% | 56.5% | 22 of 22 |
| 3 | Day Care Center | New York City | 69.3% | 57.3% | 22 of 22 |
| 4 | Home Goods Store | New York City | 69.7% | 56.6% | 22 of 22 |
| 5 | Home Improvement | New York City | 70.2% | 56.8% | 22 of 22 |
| 6 | Mixed Martial Arts | New York City | 72.3% | 57.8% | 22 of 22 |
| 7 | Gym | Chicago | 72.3% | 59.1% | 22 of 22 |
| 8 | Pet Groomers | New York City | 73.2% | 58.8% | 22 of 22 |
| 9 | Juices, Smoothies & Acai | New York City | 74.1% | 58.9% | 22 of 22 |
| 10 | Fast Food Restaurant | New York City | 74.1% | 59.1% | 22 of 22 |
| 11 | Mixed Martial Arts | Chicago | 74.1% | 59.7% | 21 of 22 |
| 12 | Coffee Shop | San Diego | 74.1% | 62.4% | 22 of 22 |
| 13 | Pet Boarding | New York City | 74.2% | 59.6% | 22 of 22 |
| 14 | Dessert | New York City | 74.5% | 59.2% | 22 of 22 |
| 15 | Seafood Restaurant / Store | New York City | 74.5% | 59.2% | 22 of 22 |
The lowest projected chance of lasting two or more years at a good address, each business type averaged across all 22 metros, with the typical address beside it.
| # | Business type | At a good address | Typical address |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mixed Martial Arts | 79.8% | 66.9% |
| 2 | Home Goods Store | 79.9% | 67.3% |
| 3 | Home Improvement | 80.0% | 67.3% |
| 4 | Watch Store / Repair | 80.1% | 67.4% |
| 5 | Juices, Smoothies & Acai | 80.1% | 67.1% |
| 6 | Dessert | 80.1% | 67.1% |
| 7 | Seafood Restaurant / Store | 80.2% | 67.0% |
| 8 | Music Store | 80.2% | 67.5% |
| 9 | Brewery | 80.3% | 67.2% |
| 10 | Bakery | 80.3% | 67.3% |
| 11 | Pet Groomers | 80.4% | 67.0% |
| 12 | Massage Therapy | 80.4% | 67.6% |
The lowest good-address score of any ranked neighborhood for these pairings (each metro file's last-ranked neighborhood for the business type): where getting the neighborhood wrong is most unforgiving. The same business type in the metro's best ranked neighborhood scores 34.2 to 36.0 points higher, shown in the last column. No business type appears more than twice.
How this list is cut: 8 last-ranked pairings share the last figure shown, 49.0%. Within a tie the list is ordered on the best ranked neighborhood's figure, lowest first; it stops at 10 rows plus any row that ties the last of them on both figures, and no business type appears more than twice, so 2 of the 8 are shown. In 1 of the rows, other ranked neighborhoods share the weakest figure; the one named is the metro file's own last-ranked neighborhood.
| # | Business type | Metro | Weakest ranked neighborhood | Best ranked neighborhood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pet Groomers | New York City | Midtown and 3 others 48.0%‡ | Hackensack Riverfront 84.0%† |
| 2 | Bar | San Francisco | Financial District/South Beach 48.3% | Piedmont Avenue and 7 others 84.0%† |
| 3 | Pet Groomers | San Francisco | Financial District/South Beach 48.9% | West Berkeley and 2 others 83.1% |
| 4 | Barber Shop | Philadelphia | Center City 48.9% | Mount Airy East and 1 other 83.6% |
| 5 | Tanning | Philadelphia | Center City 48.9% | Mount Airy East and 1 other 83.6% |
| 6 | Tattoo & Piercing | Philadelphia | Center City 48.9% | Hunting Park 83.6% |
| 7 | Hair Salon | Denver | Trails at First Creek 48.9% | West Highland and 14 others 84.0%† |
| 8 | Bakery | Miami | Leslie Estates 48.9% | Flagler Heights 84.0%† |
| 9 | Tailor | Miami | Leslie Estates 48.9% | Poinciana Park and 5 others 84.0%† |
| 10 | Dessert | Miami | Leslie Estates 49.0% | Flagler Heights 84.0%† |
| 11 | Brewery | San Francisco | Financial District 49.0% | Burbank 84.0%† |
† the highest figure the national file gives that business type anywhere in that metro. Ranked neighborhoods can share it, and a gap that reaches it is measured up to that limit, not beyond it.
‡ the lowest figure the national file gives that business type anywhere in that metro, the same kind of limit at the bottom.
"and N others": other ranked neighborhoods share that figure for the business type; the one named is the metro file's own first- or last-ranked neighborhood.
Every number here summarizes many locations. A risky business type at the right address can still beat a safe one at the wrong address: in 17 of the 18 metros with a single weakest and strongest business type (by good-address figure, a tie there decided by the typical address) and a ranked neighborhood list for both, the best ranked neighborhood for the weakest type outscores the weakest ranked neighborhood for the strongest. In Atlanta, a Laundromat in Sylvan Hills, its best ranked neighborhood, reaches 84.0%† at a good address, while a Chiropractor in Venetian Hills, its weakest, sits at 76.0%. The gap between neighborhoods inside one metro (a median 22.6 points for one business type, at a good address) is also far wider than the gap between metros (a median 6.8). Run the specific address before you commit.
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