StreetSpring Data Report
Which businesses are projected to last, and where. The projected chance of lasting two or more years for 146 business types across 22 U.S. metros, read from StreetSpring's published datasets (version 2026.10.05).
StreetSpring's Survivability Score is the projected chance that a specific business type lasts two or more years at a specific address. A score of 78% means the model projects a 78% chance that business is still open two years after opening at that exact location.
Every percentage in this report is that measure (never the model's raw output), read from StreetSpring's published datasets, where it is summarized by business type and metro in two ways: at a good address, the 90th percentile of the metro's scored locations and the basis of every ranking here, and at a typical address, the average. The same storefront can be a strong bet for one business type and a weak one for another.
Dallas is held out of this page while its census inputs are repaired and the metro is rescored; no figure for it is shown until then. Its scores stay in the published files.
San Antonio is held out of this page because the neighborhoods StreetSpring can map there cover too little of the metro to compare fairly; no figure for it is shown until that improves. Its scores stay in the published files.
Where you open inside a metro moves the projected odds far more than which metro you pick. For the median business type and metro, the best and weakest ranked neighborhood inside the metro are 22.6 points apart at a good address; the best and worst metro for the same business type are 6.8 points apart. The gap between neighborhoods is the wider of the two for 2,558 of the 2,838 business-type and metro pairings whose file ranks their neighborhoods. What you open matters too: inside one ranked neighborhood, the best and weakest ranked business type are a median 15.5 points apart at a good address (over the 1,907 ranked neighborhoods of the 22 metros on the cross-metro ranking).
† the highest figure the national file gives that business type anywhere in that metro. Ranked neighborhoods can share it, and a gap that reaches it is measured up to that limit, not beyond it.
‡ the lowest figure the national file gives that business type anywhere in that metro, the same kind of limit at the bottom.
"and N others": other ranked neighborhoods share that figure for the business type; the one named is the metro file's own first- or last-ranked neighborhood.
The projected chance of lasting two or more years at a good address, each business type averaged across all 22 metros, with the typical address beside it. The 146 business types compared are the ones the national file scores in every metro compared with a good-address figure; that is every business type in the file.
| # | Most survivable | At a good address | Typical address |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiropractor | 88.7% | 76.7% |
| 2 | Veterinarian | 88.1% | 76.2% |
| 3 | Eye Care Center | 87.2% | 74.5% |
| 4 | Dentist | 86.6% | 74.4% |
| 5 | Acupuncture | 86.5% | 74.2% |
| 6 | Physical Therapy | 86.4% | 74.2% |
| 7 | Psychiatrists & Psychologists | 86.4% | 74.2% |
| 8 | Dermatology | 86.4% | 74.1% |
| 9 | Convenience Store | 83.5% | 71.0% |
| 10 | Clothing Store | 83.4% | 70.0% |
| # | Most at-risk | At a good address | Typical address |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mixed Martial Arts | 79.8% | 66.9% |
| 2 | Home Goods Store | 79.9% | 67.3% |
| 3 | Home Improvement | 80.0% | 67.3% |
| 4 | Watch Store / Repair | 80.1% | 67.4% |
| 5 | Juices, Smoothies & Acai | 80.1% | 67.1% |
| 6 | Dessert | 80.1% | 67.1% |
| 7 | Seafood Restaurant / Store | 80.2% | 67.0% |
| 8 | Music Store | 80.2% | 67.5% |
| 9 | Brewery | 80.3% | 67.2% |
| 10 | Bakery | 80.3% | 67.3% |
The 22 metros on the cross-metro ranking, ordered by the projected chance a new business lasts two or more years at a good address, averaged across the 146 business types the national file scores in every metro; the typical-address column averages the same types' average scores. This is the method of the full cross-metro ranking at streetspring.com/resources/rankings, which adds each metro's best and toughest neighborhood, with towns ranked in a separate list.
| # | Metro | At a good address | Typical address |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte | 83.5% | 73.7% |
| 2 | Atlanta | 83.5% | 73.0% |
| 3 | Denver | 83.3% | 72.1% |
| 4 | Houston | 83.2% | 72.5% |
| 5 | Orlando | 83.1% | 72.2% |
| 6 | Seattle | 82.5% | 70.1% |
| 7 | Minneapolis | 82.3% | 70.6% |
| 8 | St. Louis | 82.2% | 69.7% |
| 9 | Washington DC | 82.0% | 67.5% |
| 10 | Baltimore | 81.3% | 67.8% |
| 11 | Detroit | 81.1% | 68.6% |
| 12 | Philadelphia | 81.0% | 67.7% |
| 13 | Los Angeles | 81.0% | 65.6% |
| 14 | Miami | 80.9% | 65.4% |
| 15 | Phoenix | 80.8% | 67.4% |
| 16 | Chicago | 80.8% | 65.5% |
| 17 | San Diego | 80.8% | 67.3% |
| 18 | San Francisco | 80.5% | 64.7% |
| 19 | Portland | 80.1% | 64.8% |
| 20 | Tampa Bay | 79.7% | 65.4% |
| 21 | Boston | 79.2% | 64.4% |
| 22 | New York City | 77.1% | 61.5% |
The whole field spans 6.4 points at a good address, well under the median 22.6-point gap for one business type between neighborhoods inside one metro. The national file's own per-type city ranks show how close the metros sit: Charlotte comes first in the file's order for 102 of the 146 business types, but in 100 of those the next metro prints the same good-address figure, so the order there comes from the file's tie-break, not from a higher figure. New York City comes last for 131, 10 of them tied with the metro above it.
Where the address matters most: the widest gap for a single business type between its weakest and best ranked neighborhood inside one metro, at a good address (each metro file's neighborhood_rank_for_business_subtype, last against first). No business type appears more than twice.
| # | Business type | Metro | Weakest ranked neighborhood | Best ranked neighborhood | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pet Boarding | New York City | Midtown and 4 others 49.0%‡ | West Side, Jersey City 85.0%† | 36.0 pts |
| 2 | Pet Store | New York City | Midtown and 3 others 49.0%‡ | Hackensack Riverfront 85.0%† | 36.0 pts |
| 3 | Pet Groomers | New York City | Midtown and 3 others 48.0%‡ | Hackensack Riverfront 84.0%† | 36.0 pts |
| 4 | Bar | San Francisco | Financial District/South Beach 48.3% | Piedmont Avenue and 7 others 84.0%† | 35.7 pts |
| 5 | Day Care Center | New York City | Chinatown and 14 others 50.0%‡ | Hackensack Riverfront 85.6% | 35.6 pts |
| 6 | Home Goods Store | New York City | Chinatown and 12 others 49.0%‡ | West Side, Jersey City and 1 other 84.6% | 35.6 pts |
| 7 | Home Improvement | New York City | Chinatown and 12 others 49.0%‡ | West Side, Jersey City and 1 other 84.6% | 35.6 pts |
| 8 | Music Store | New York City | Little Italy and 13 others 49.0%‡ | Hackensack Riverfront 84.6% | 35.6 pts |
| 9 | Watch Store / Repair | New York City | Little Italy and 13 others 49.0%‡ | Hackensack Riverfront 84.6% | 35.6 pts |
| 10 | International Grocery Store | Miami | Leslie Estates 49.8% | Flagler Heights 85.0%† | 35.2 pts |
The biggest gaps between the best and worst metro for the same business type at a good address, read from the national file's city ranks (rank 1 against the last-ranked metro). Even the widest, 15.8 points, is well under the median 22.6-point gap between neighborhoods inside a single metro: the wrong metro puts you behind, the wrong address puts you much further behind.
| # | Business type | Best metro | Worst metro | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Day Care Center | Charlotte and 2 others 85.1% | New York City 69.3% | 15.8 pts |
| 2 | Music Store | Charlotte 84.5% | New York City 69.2% | 15.3 pts |
| 3 | Watch Store / Repair | Charlotte and 2 others 84.1% | New York City 69.2% | 14.9 pts |
| 4 | Home Goods Store | Charlotte and 2 others 84.1% | New York City 69.7% | 14.4 pts |
| 5 | Home Improvement | Charlotte and 2 others 84.1% | New York City 70.2% | 13.9 pts |
| 6 | Gym | Denver and 5 others 83.1% | Chicago 72.3% | 10.8 pts |
| 7 | Mixed Martial Arts | Charlotte and 3 others 83.1% | New York City 72.3% | 10.8 pts |
| 8 | Pet Boarding | Denver 84.1% | New York City 74.2% | 9.9 pts |
| 9 | Pet Groomers | Denver 83.1% | New York City 73.2% | 9.9 pts |
"and N others": other metros print the same good-address figure for that business type; the one named is the national file's own first- or last-ranked metro, and the gap is the same for each of them.
The national file (every business type in every metro) and the 24 metro files (every business type in every neighborhood and town) are free to download under CC BY 4.0 from the datasets page.
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