Covering the San Francisco metro, including Oakland. No account, no paywall, nothing to buy. Built for anyone deciding where to open, and for the people who advise them.
The projected chance that a specific business type lasts two or more years at a specific address.
Most people choose a location on rent, on a walk-through, and on a feeling about foot traffic. Those are the things you can see standing on the sidewalk. What you cannot see is whether that block has actually supported your kind of business over time, or whether the businesses that lasted there were a different kind entirely.
That question is answerable before a lease is signed, and it is what this research covers for San Francisco.
Across San Francisco addresses, a discount store ranges from about 38% to 85% projected two-year survival, a spread of 47 percentage points. A physical therapy clinic ranges from about 57% to 81%, a spread of only 24. For one of those, the address is close to the whole decision. For the other, it barely moves the answer.
This is the single most useful thing to tell someone early. It tells them how much of their energy belongs on the site search.
| Business type | Projected 2-year survival across San Francisco | Spread | How San Francisco ranks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Store | 38% to 85% | 47 pp | #4 of 24 metros |
| Fish Chips Restaurant | 29% to 85% | 56 pp | #3 of 24 metros |
| Irish Pub | 32% to 85% | 53 pp | #4 of 24 metros |
| Thai Restaurant | 33% to 83% | 50 pp | #3 of 24 metros |
| Dermatology Clinic | 35% to 83% | 48 pp | #3 of 24 metros |
| Business type | Projected 2-year survival across San Francisco | Spread | How San Francisco ranks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Physical Therapy Clinic | 57% to 81% | 24 pp | #2 of 24 metros |
| Falafel Restaurant | 58% to 80% | 22 pp | #11 of 24 metros |
| Seafood Restaurant | 58% to 82% | 24 pp | #3 of 24 metros |
| Dentist Office | 56% to 81% | 25 pp | #11 of 24 metros |
| Grocery Store | 52% to 77% | 25 pp | #2 of 15 metros |
| Business type | Projected 2-year survival across San Francisco | Spread | How San Francisco ranks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Convenience Store | 58% to 89% | 31 pp | #1 of 24 metros |
| Dessert Shop | 58% to 88% | 30 pp | #2 of 24 metros |
| Grocery Store | 52% to 77% | 25 pp | #2 of 15 metros |
| Physical Therapy Clinic | 57% to 81% | 24 pp | #2 of 24 metros |
| Fish Chips Restaurant | 29% to 85% | 56 pp | #3 of 24 metros |
Across 81 San Francisco neighborhoods, Marina is the strongest on average, at about 81% projected two-year survival, with its best locations near 87%. Seminary averages about 70%.
Averages hide the thing that matters. A single block can beat an entire neighborhood's ranking, and every low-ranked neighborhood contains locations that beat the metro average. Use the neighborhood view to narrow a search, not to rule an area out.
The model is trained on roughly a million business outcomes and scores 500+ business types across up to five price tiers in 24 U.S. metros. Of everything it considers, the Revenue Capture Score, our own measure of projected market share against forecasted local spend, carries the most predictive weight.
Data as of 2026-08-30. Geographic scope: the San Francisco metro area, 81 neighborhoods.
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Business Planning, Market Research, Site Selection, or Starting a Business.
I am Bobby, the founder. I built StreetSpring after watching good operators sign leases on blocks that had never supported their kind of business. If you want the PDF, want to book a session, or think something on this page is wrong, write to me directly.
Bobby | StreetSpring