Covering the San Francisco metro, including Oakland. No account, no paywall, nothing to buy. Built for anyone deciding where to open, and for the people who advise them.
The projected chance that a specific business type lasts two or more years at a specific address.
Most people choose a location on rent, on a walk-through, and on a feeling about foot traffic. Those are the things you can see standing on the sidewalk. What you cannot see is whether that block has actually supported your kind of business over time, or whether the businesses that lasted there were a different kind entirely.
That question is answerable before a lease is signed, and it is what this research covers for San Francisco.
Across 107 ranked San Francisco neighborhoods, the projected chance of lasting two or more years at a good address runs from 48.3% to 84.0%† for Bar, a spread of 35.7† percentage points, and from 62.8% to 89.6% for Dentist, a spread of 26.8, the narrowest fully measured range in San Francisco (section 3 says what that means). The address matters more for one than for the other.
This is the single most useful thing to tell someone early. It tells them how much of their energy belongs on the site search.
| Business type | Good-address range across ranked San Francisco neighborhoods | Spread | How San Francisco ranks (of 22 metros compared) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bar | 48.3% to 84.0%† | 35.7† pp | #21 of 22 metros |
| Brewery | 49.0% to 84.0%† | 35.0† pp | #16 of 22 metros |
| Dance & Night Clubs | 51.1% to 86.0%† | 34.9† pp | #17 of 22 metros |
| Pet Boarding | 49.9% to 84.6% | 34.7 pp | #18 of 22 metros |
| Grocery Store | 50.4% to 85.0%† | 34.6† pp | #16 of 22 metros |
| Smoke Shop | 50.4% to 85.0%† | 34.6† pp | #21 of 22 metros |
A range is fully measured when neither end draws on a scored location sitting at the highest or lowest figure the national file gives that business type in San Francisco. 22 of the 129 business types ranked across San Francisco neighborhoods qualify. A range that reaches either limit is measured only up to that limit, so it could be wider than it prints, and it is left out of this table.
| Business type | Good-address range across ranked San Francisco neighborhoods | Spread | How San Francisco ranks (of 22 metros compared) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dentist | 62.8% to 89.6% | 26.8 pp | #20 of 22 metros |
| Acupuncture | 62.4% to 89.6% | 27.2 pp | #17 of 22 metros |
| Psychiatrists & Psychologists | 62.4% to 89.6% | 27.2 pp | #18 of 22 metros |
| Barber Shop | 55.6% to 83.6% | 28.0 pp | #16 of 22 metros |
| Tanning | 55.6% to 83.6% | 28.0 pp | #16 of 22 metros |
Business types that share every figure in a row are shown together, never cut by name.
† the highest figure the national file gives that business type anywhere in San Francisco. Ranked neighborhoods can share it, and a range or spread that reaches it is measured up to that limit, not beyond it.
| Business type | San Francisco at a good address | Typical address | How San Francisco ranks (of 22 metros compared) | Against the top other metro |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coffee Shop | 83.5% | 70.8% | #2 of 22 metros | level |
| Gym | 83.1% | 67.3% | #3 of 22 metros | level |
| Cafe | 83.5% | 70.0% | #5 of 22 metros | level |
| Hair Salon | 83.1% | 69.1% | #6 of 22 metros | behind by 0.4 pts |
| Laundromat | 83.1% | 66.5% | #6 of 22 metros | behind by 0.9 pts |
Across 107 ranked San Francisco neighborhoods, West Berkeley ranks first, at 84.0% projected two-year survival at a good address (78.0% at a typical address). Colony Park ranks last, at 55.2% (52.3% at a typical address).
Averages hide the thing that matters. A single block can beat an entire neighborhood's ranking. Use the neighborhood view to narrow a search, not to rule an area out.
The model is trained on 570,000+ historical business outcomes across 24 U.S. metros and weighs 100+ location factors. The most important number in a location decision is our proprietary Revenue Capture Score: the revenue a business can capture at that address, from its projected market share against forecasted local spend. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool. The figures on this page come from the published files, which carry one figure per base business type, averaged across its price points.
Data version 2026.10.05 (as of 2026-10-05). Geographic scope: the San Francisco metro area, 210 neighborhoods. "At a good address" is the 90th percentile of a neighborhood's scored locations, the figure the files rank on; ranks against other metros count the 22 metros compared, in the national file's own order.
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Business Planning, Market Research, Site Selection, or Starting a Business.
If you are starting a business here, these are the people to talk to before you talk to us:
I am Bobby, the founder. I built StreetSpring after watching good operators sign leases on blocks that had never supported their kind of business. If you want the PDF, want to book a session, or think something on this page is wrong, write to me directly.
Bobby | StreetSpring